RADIO
We have four Euros cultivating the top of the Farmers Insurance Open, occupying the first four spots heading into "the weekend" with round 3 taking place on a Friday courtesy of the Divisional Championship games on Sunday. Stephan Jaeger leads the pack at -12, with Nicolai Hojgaard a shot back. Kevin Yu (+5.71 strokes gained), Stephan Jaeger (+5.29) and Patrick Rodgers (+5.29) are the three kings of the North, with some Stark scores of -8 on the easier course when they teed it up there in their maiden trips this week. Matthieu Pavon shot a week-long -7 on the South course gaining +7.29 strokes on the field in round 2, a very impressive round from the Frenchman.
Apologies for the delay on the article tonight, but trying to figure out the ownership numbers with half the field missing and half of the guys who made the cut having played the South course, with hardly any ownership alongside their name. But, alas, we have them figured out and are going to do our best to navigate the ownership land mines that could help us get a hand up on the field.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Weather & Tee Times
Nothing too crazy going on in San Diego weather wise.
Round 3 Strategy
We are all back on the same course going off both tees with no real weather edge to exploit., looking to find some low owned gems and a few reliable chalkier chargers to hitch our wagon to.
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Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 3. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes ownership projections, pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, projected points, and GPP/Cash Ratings for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the $1 20 ENTRY MAX, which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Patrick Cantlay grades out just as well his buddy Xander, but will likely come in at half the ownership. He has the best third round scoring average in the field and can make birdies with the best of them. There is no reason he shouldn't bounce back after a bit of a lack luster round today, potentially starting off lineups with some good upside and a solid amount of leverage on those playing Xander. The Xander fade in R2 was worth it, too bad we had too many Max Homa's and Jason Day's in our lineups instead, who scored worse than X.
Other Options: Only Cantlay and X in the $10k range.
$9,000+
Favorite play: Max Homa is going to be $700 more expensive than Tony Finau and has played significantly worse than Big Tone so far, which will see him come in at half the ownership as his fellow $9k'er. Max typically digs deep when he is struggling and it will be no surprise to see him fire a low one in R3 after some poor golf so far. He grades out better than Tony in my projections, but just hasn't quite fired it all the way up yet. It's coming.
Other options: Keegan Bradley --> same thing as Homa. Grades out really well if we ignore the first two rounds. Low owned Keegan could pull off the round of the day on a course he has had tons of success on in the past. (We are pivoting our face off with limited options in the upper salary tiers with some big names missing the cut).
$8,000+
Favorite play: Sahith Theegala made two birdies to get to -4 and guarantee himself a tee time for the weekend. He scored four shots better on the south course, which has played two shots harder than the north course. He likes this course. He makes birdies in bunches and sitting all the way down the leaderboard we can expect him to be the pivot off of Nicolai Hojgaard and Hideki Matsuyama who have been playing better so far.
Other options: Justin Rose
$7,000+
Favorite play: Taylor Montgomery can make immense amounts of birdies but is a little risky as anything is possible with him. We have seen guys light it up on the greens this week and Montgomery could easily be one of them as he is one of the best putters in this field.
Other options: Shane Lowry, Ryo Hisatsune, Austin Eckroat, Tom Hoge
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Erik Barnes has typically played very well at the South course and at $6,300 he is great value for the upside he can provide around Torrey Pines.
Other options: Jake Knapp, Alejandro Tosti, Ben Silverman, Jacob Bridgeman, Rafael Campos
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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