RADIO
What an awesome day of golf. The stars showed up, the birdies were flying, and the top 10 of the leaderboard includes Sahith, Viktor, Collin, Jason, Scottie, Patrick, Sungjae, Xander, and Jordan. The reason I mention all first names is because you know all those first names without their last. Great round by Sahith to shoot -9 and lead a hungry pack of five stars at -8. We are in for an awesome Round 2 tomorrow.
Hole 14 proved to be one of the more entertaining holes today, with the out of bounds to the right of the green playing a crucial role in the confidence golfers could swing driver at the green with. Tom Hoge almost made an all-world par after hitting his ball OB. He drove the green with his third shot and just narrowly missed his putt for par. He will be in the player pool tomorrow.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Round 1 Analysis
Round 1 DK Points Leaders
There were a lot of later tee times that made their way onto the leaderboard despite the wind seeming to pick up in the afternoon. This is an interesting angle when looking at some golfers to target for Round 2 who may be at an ownership discount because of the perceived advantage to go off earlier in the morning.
Round 1 Ownership Leaders
The four highest owned golfers went off before 8 o'clock Aloha time, with Scottie the only late tee time to garner much steam. He is going to be pushing Collin Morikawa for the most owned golfer tomorrow after a solid performance today and an earlier tee time tomorrow.
Weather & Tee Times
Tomorrow's weather looks to be relatively calm again with a chance of some mid-afternoon sprinkles.
I am a sick man and put together a hole-by-hole model that I will be using to try take advantage of some hole-by-hole bets or general over under rounds scores tomorrow. Use this how you see fit, but be sure to shout me out on X @TheModelManiac if it wins you some money. Feel free to also complain to me if it loses you money.
Round 2 Strategy
With weather edges not so prevalent in Round 2, we get most of the slate to choose from. With three rounds still to go in the tournament, taking a gamble on guys further down the leaderboard seems a little less risky, as they know they still have a chance if they play well the next three days. Going off of Round 2 projected ownership in the model, we are going to find some golfers with lower than usual ownership who are still projected to be top scorers tomorrow.
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Showdown Model
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 2. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes ownership projections, pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, projected points, and GPP/Cash Ratings for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the $5 SINGLE ENTRY, which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Favorite Play (and only): Patrick Cantlay is just shuffling along at -7 in T7 and is a very affordable $10,000 for the second ranked golfer in my model for week-long and Round 2. He struggled a little tee-t0-green, but his putter gained him 2.2 strokes today, which should scare off the already-scarce relative ownership he saw in Round 1. Cantlay is the premier birdie maker (long term baseline) and par 5 scorer in the field and grades out as the fifth-best strokes gainer in Round 2 typically.
Other options (if you don't like Cantlay): Viktor Hovland gained four strokes putting today (LoL) while the rest of his game about broke even. That kind of statistical profile will scare people off of him at already rather cautious Round 1 ownership numbers.
$9,000+
Favorite play: Max Homa has one of the best spike putting splits in this field and still shot -6 (T12), losing a stroke on the greens today. He gained just shy of three strokes T2G and if he keeps that up, paired with his incredible putting ability, we could see Maximus cruise up that leaderboard tomorrow at ownership in the mid-teens and potentially 1/3 of Morikawa and/or Scheffler, who I can see most people starting their lineups with tomorrow.
Other options: Matt Fitzpatrick will be less than 5% owned, but is not necessarily any confidence. If you have a really chalky lineup, throw him in there to water down the situation just like he did to Collin Morikawa's score at the Hero World Challenge where he "asked a rules official a question" that subsequently got Collin a two-shot penalty for writing in his green reading book.
$8,000+
Favorite play: Tyrrell Hatton has the potential to go low if that putter of his taps into that Round 2 strokes gained and approach play that has been rather reliable for most of the last year. Hatton has the ability to shoot the round of the day and is priced at $8,800 with ownership projected to be around -5% after a rather lackluster -4 in Round 1. He has the third-best second round strokes gained average in Round 2. In a 59 person field, we could see him flirting with some REALLY appealing ownership.
Other options: Tommy Fleetwood, Brian Harman, Sam Burns, Russell Henley (I really like this range and you can play a lot of these guys together if you are feeling frisky and just want to start your lineups here in the $8Ks)
$7,000+
Favorite play: Justin Rose showed why he has the eighth-best Round 2 strokes gained average when he shot 40 on the front nine and then doing an express second round Houdini act, making six birdies to shoot 31 (-6) on the back. If you looked at his 18 hole score, things would have looked rather bleh from the Englishman, but if he can keep that momentum heading into the second round, he provides a cheap option with massive upside at sub 10% ownership. He is old school and loves to feel like an underdog, clawing his way up the leaderboard with pride and DK points.
Other options: Eric Cole, Sepp Straka (a little chalky but he is playing nicely), Denny McCarthy, J.T. Poston, Adam Schenk
$6,000+
Favorite play: Nick Taylor is absolutely capable of playing inspired golf. Think back to the RBC Canadian Open and the Waste Management Phoenix Open where he hung tough with Scottie. His putter can absolutely get hot at any given moment and after chipping in for eagle on the back 9 today, maybe he carries a bit of that momentum into Round 2, where his scoring average is gross. But this is a no cut event and he is way down the leaderboard. We will choose to ignore that this week.
Other options: Erik van Rooyen, Tom Hoge. I think the reason I like the $8K range so much is because the $6K range is nasty.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to work it, at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page, there is a video on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor.
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