RADIO
Here we go again. Yet another blustery, half-finished round of golf on the west coast. Today's weather was like a fart-sneeze, where you expected wind but somehow it came from both directions at a speed and smell that equates to a Jimmy Walker +9 (80) being the end result. Half the field finished their round today, while the other half has somewhere between nine and four holes left. It makes for some interesting game theory, that's for sure.
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and more often than not this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but every now and then when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Ownership Analysis
Top Points Scorers
These are the highest point scorers who finished their round today. Lock for Round 2 will be at 9:15 ET tomorrow morning, which means that there will still be guys on the course when the slate gets locked in. I would imagine that ownership would drift towards those who played all 18 holes well as the weather is looking like it will be rather cold and windy in the AM. We will get to that aspect later in the article.
Top Strokes Gained For Those Not Yet Finished
We probably want to target the golfers with the most holes remaining tomorrow, as they will tee off later and enjoy the calmer conditions for longer.
Highest Owned Golfers
Rory and Rahm are destined for a duel at some point that may fill the void that Bryson and Brooks left in our golfing hearts, never getting paired together at the height of their "beef". We can expect Rahm to steal about 5% of Rory's ownership tomorrow merely because people like to click golfers who are playing better.
Going into Round 2, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in R2 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
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Round 2 Weather
As we mentioned earlier, we got some sneeze-farty weather in the morning tomorrow. If history repeats itself, tomorrow there will most likely be another frost delay as it is going to be the same temperature at 8AM tomorrow as it was this morning. Golfers with only 4 or 5 holes to play will most likely tee it up relatively quickly after completion of R1, which means their first few holes will be in some really windy conditions.
Round 2 Power Rankings
These golfers can all be considered for cash games or double-ups. These are the top-13 graded golfers in my showdown model. The full model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes pre-event rankings, round specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, in-tournament strokes gained stats and ball-park ownership projections for tomorrow's showdown slate.
The Chalk Squad
If a golfer has been playing well so far, he will be even more popular.
$10,000: Nobody.
$9,000: Collin Morikawa shot 2 over today, while others in his salary tier were/are well under par, making him a fantastic pivot in the $9K range, as his ownership will have plummeted after a rather disappointing round today.
$8,000: Viktor Hovland seems to have tidied up his short game and currently sits -1 through 10 holes. We know what he can do with his irons when the start sizzling, so expect him to make a charge up the leaderboard tomorrow.
$7,000: Jason Day is currently -3 with an entire 9 more holes to go. He is playing too well to be priced in the $7k range.
$6,000: Nobody.
The Pivot People
These guys find themselves in the middle of the leaderboard. Their round did not go entirely according to plan, and we are banking on them to bounce back tomorrow.
$10,000: Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler have the same upside as Jon Rahm on any given day, particularly with how hot and most cold Scheffler's putter has been. If that thing heats up he could easily have low round of the day at about 13% ownership.
$9,000: Justin Thomas the fourth-best round 2 scoring average in the field and grades out as the top golfer to target tomorrow. His consistency has been lacking, but when JT has one of those days, he is tough to beat. Tom Kim is just chugging along not drawing too much attention to himself having lost -1.5 strokes tee-to-green through his first 11 holes. That is not the Tom we know, so expect him to start adding extra coal to the engine tomorrow.
$8,000: The only name in the $8K range for this section of golfers is Jordan Spieth, who bogey his final hole to record an even par round of 71. A -1 (70) may have garnered a few more clicks from the public and we can expect a very streaky Spieth somewhere around 10% ownership tomorrow.
$7,000: Chris Kirk, Billy Horschel, Seamus Power, J.T. Poston, and Hayden Buckley will all be targets in the $7K range. Outside of Poston, most of these guys came into the week low owned, and today's level par rounds will most likely maintain their single-digit public stakes going into R2.
$6,000: Webb Simpson, Patton Kizzire, Nate Lashley, and Ryan Moore all will find themselves in my lineups tomorrow.
The Leverage Lads
The lowest-owned golfers should give us the most leverage in a DFS Showdown slate.
$10,000: Nobody.
$9,000: Tony Finau will most likely benefit from the stellar round's Xander Schauffele and Max Homa put together, although Big Tone put together a -1 (70) with a lot of shots left out there, particularly with the driver which has been his best friend lately. Patrick Cantlay continues to put forth uninspired play since declaring himself as a free agent on the equipment front. Consistency seems to be an issue for Patty Ice, but we will take our chances with him for a round at about 12% ownership tomorrow.
$8,000: Sam Burns is the third-best round 2 scorer in the field and finds himself at -1 after gaining +2.9 strokes around the green today. That will most likely scare off the truthers that chase prior round ball-striking metrics, leaving us with a birdie-brimming Burns potentially in single digit ownership. A perennially slow starter, Shane Lowry will also make his way into our lineups along with Tommy Fleetwood. Don't forget to include Taylor Montgomery in a few lineups if you are multi-entering.
$7,000: Tom Hoge gives us a trio of Tom's in our player pool now, along with Russell Henley and Maverick McNealy who lost the majority of his strokes putting, which gives us some insight into his shoulder that seems to be better. He is one of the best putters on tour and can go super low when it gets hot.
$6,000: Erik Van Rooyen, Mark Hubbard, Adam Svensson, and Troy Merrit will round out our lineups.
Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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