RADIO
Jon Rahm sits atop the leaderboard once more. But we need to fill out five other spots in our DFS roster, so I guess we will try to figure out who will score the second-most points tomorrow. OR, are we going to try to avoid the 40%+ ownership that will come in on Rahm tomorrow and hope he has a bad round?
This article is going to take a look at showdown slates after each completed round. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and more often than not, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but every now and then when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the previous round's top performers and duds and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
The general logic to showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher-owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I am gravitating towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership.
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Ownership Analysis
Top Points Scorers
Highest-Owned Golfers
Notice the amount of green AM tee times. This will be even more pronounced in tomorrow's slate, with winds looking to be brutal as the day progresses.
Going into Round 2, these are the color codes we will be using to identify who we want to target. Think of it as a traffic light with four colors. Stop at mega chalk and go when we see leverage that makes sense.
By taking a look at yesterday's ownership, we can get an idea of where people will be willing to go in Round 2 (DK points include finishing position).
- Mega chalk: A popular player who played well yesterday.
- Chalk: a) A popular player who played okay yesterday, b) A less popular player who played well yesterday.
- Pivots: a) A popular player who played poorly yesterday, b) A less popular player who played okay yesterday.
- Leverage: A less popular player who played poorly yesterday.
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Round 2 Strategy
The wind is going to get significantly stronger as the day goes on, with the potential for two scenarios. Scenario 1 is the AM wave gets the best weather, particularly the guys going off closest to 7 AM. Scenario 2 would be that the wind gets so bad around noon that play is suspended and the PM wave tees it up on Saturday morning in much better conditions than they would have seen Friday PM, but still worse than Friday AM.
If you want to sprinkle in a few guys into your lineups that have super late tee times, you will most likely get significant ownership leverage that way, but if the weather is not bad enough to halt play, expect those scores to be a windswept waste of time. In a field of 120 golfers, we are essentially eliminating half the field, which means we could see ownership in post-cut ballparks. Dodging ownership in the AM is going to be critical for success tomorrow.
With only 60 golfers to really choose from tomorrow, don't be shy to leave salary on the table as anything is possible in this wind, and if you get close to 50K total in all your lineups (20 entry max etc.), you will most likely be playing some really chalky lineups.
Round 2 Power Rankings
Below are the power rankings of the golfers who we have our eye on for Round 2. The full-field model is available to premium subscribers HERE. It includes pre-event rankings, round-specific scoring averages, birdie percentages, weighted approach ratings, and ownership projections for tomorrow's showdown slate.
***Full disclosure: The ownership numbers are based on the $10K Drive The Green $5 Single Entry contest, which is important to note as ownership in showdown can vary from contest to contest depending on field size and entry fee. However, it should provide you with a guide to who will be the most owned and how those around them shake out.
$10,000+
Rory McIlroy... Rory, Rory, Rory... What is going on, my friend? He provides some of the most firepower if looking at his profile over a long-term span, but his putter is now going on nine consecutive rounds of lost strokes since touching down on US soil this year. Now, in the wind tomorrow, maybe he reverts back to his Irish roots and plays like the bouncy teenager he once was? His upside is undeniable, and he won't see much more than 20% ownership tomorrow.
$9,000+
Max Homa is going to be somebody that we lean on heavily tomorrow. He doesn't have the earliest of tee times and with a lot of people clicking Rahm and then seeing their salary average plummet, they will more than likely head further down the $9k range to Xander and Cantlay, who both shot -4 today. We are okay going with Max, who seemed to never really get rolling today. Tomorrow, that will be a different story at sub-20 % ownership.
$8,000+
Tony Finau is sitting cozily between Patrick Cantlay and Cameron Young on the salary scale and it seems as though both of them beat him by at least two shots, so we should see a lot of that ownership head to Cantlay, with others also clicking Young regardless of his PM tee time. Finau can explode into a birdie machine and came out of the gates firing today before cooling off on the back end of his round.
Keith Mitchell is going to be rather chalky somewhere around 20% ownership despite his level-par performance today. He gets a 7:11 AM tee time, which is about as early as he could have wished for. We will be heavy on Keith tomorrow, as he will be one of the few chalk monsters we choose to tango with.
Hideki Matsuyama will be who we choose to pair with Mitchell and Finau to water down ownership as the Japanese star is overflowing with poor form and potential injuries. He should come in around 5% ownership tomorrow, which is ideal for somebody who is a really good scrambler and can potentially be the lead scorer tomorrow (remember Round 4 of the Farmers?).
$7,000+
Shane Lowry is another Irishman we look to roster heavily as he has a fantastic around-the-green game and is comfortable in the wind. He is also a slow starter at times, sitting outside the cutline going into Friday, often stepping up and playing well enough to afford himself some free weekend rounds of golf. If conditions are gruesome, we want Lowry in our lineups.
Tommy Fleetwood disappointed today, but hopefully, he can bounce back tomorrow when scores are closer to par, which are conditions he thrives in. He is exceptional around the greens and hopefully, he lives up to the reputation of being a sensational wind player.
Patrick Rodgers has hurt a lot of people's confidence over the last week or so, and after an even par round today, he will tee off at 7:11 AM, giving him some of the best conditions the field will see all day.
$6,000+
Will Gordon tees off at 7:27 AM and has the potential to go nuclear on any given day. He has great birdie-making potential for someone in this price range.
Hayden Buckley and Troy Merrit are two guys who we will be targeting simply because of their early tee times and average potential. If either of them gets off to a good start, they leave a lot of salary left over for some better players to grab the baton and finish strong for us.
Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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