Rookie Report: Prospect Risers and Fallers for Week 4

April 22, 2021

Fantasy baseball prospects recently called up, and their rest of season projections. Phil Goyette evaluates rising and falling fantasy baseball rookies for Week 4.

Welcome to the latest edition of RotoBaller’s Recently Promoted Prospects series for fantasy baseball! Here I discuss some recently promoted MLB prospects and rookies - making note of what I think their upside could be for fantasy baseball managers, and whether they are potential risers or fallers.

It’s early in the season and we’ve already seen 47 rookies make their MLB debut in 2021. This week I will highlight five prospects to know for fantasy baseball and their projections. I will use video looks, scouting reports, analytics, and RotoBaller’s premium projections to predict what each player could do if given a continued opportunity in 2021.

Here are your recently promoted prospects for Week 4 of the fantasy baseball season.

J.B. Bukauskas, Arizona Diamondbacks

16% Rostered on Yahoo

Situation: When Diamondbacks reliever Anthony Swarzak struggled early in the season, the team didn't hesitate to DFA him and make room for J.B. Bukauskas in the bullpen. Bukauskas, 24, was a first-round selection of the Houston Astros in the 2017 draft. His athleticism and collegiate performance as a starter for the University of North Carolina in college made him a popular pick as a future impact player. However, he has always come with a significant dose of reliever risk in his profile. He was traded to Arizona in the deal that sent Zack Greinke to Houston.

Skill: Bukauskas has an athletic, high effort delivery. His mechanics have always made observers think that his most likely professional home would be in the bullpen. This is probably good news, as Bukauskas's stuff should really play up in a relief role. His fastball should routinely touch the mid-90s in short stints, and he has both a slider and changeup that can flash plus at times. The secondary offerings also tunnel well off the fastball, making for an enticing package that should be able to handle high-leverage situations:

Projection: Bukauskas should provide plenty of strikeouts, as he routinely ran strikeout rates around 30% in the upper minors. However, his WHIP and ERA will likely suffer due to control issues stemming from his aforementioned high effort delivery. I doubt he's going to be in line for saves this season, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him pick up holds in some high leverage appearances out of the bullpen.

Sam Hentges, Cleveland Indians

0% Rostered on Yahoo

Situation: The next model off the line from the Cleveland pitching factory, left-hander Sam Hentges was called up to The Show on April 20. Cleveland doesn't have a need for him in the starting rotation at this moment, so Hentges is likely to work low-leverage situations and possibly be deployed as a bulk guy behind an opener early this season.

Skill: Cleveland has had some great successes in taking pitchers with command-first profiles (Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac) and getting their stuff to take a jump at the MLB level. Hentges doesn't really fit this dynamic as his primary issue has been with his control. He did undergo Tommy John surgery in 2017, and command can be the last and hardest piece to regain in recovery from Tommy John. When he's on, his fastball is a mid-90s heater delivered from his big 6'6", 245 pound frame. He also has some feel for spin, flashing two shapes of breaking balls, with a downer curveball being the most likely out pitch:

Projection: Hentges is most likely to be deployed in a long relief or bulk inning role to start out his time in the majors. His stuff and the difficult angle he creates from the left-hand side means he could very well be employed in a left-handed specialist role, with some holds coming along for the ride. He doesn't need to be on your radar right now unless you play in an extremely deep league, however.

Alex Kirilloff, Minnesota Twins

13% Rostered on Yahoo

Situation: While not strictly a first-time MLB call-up, Kirilloff did make his MLB regular-season debut earlier this week. He was called up from the Twins taxi squad for the double-header on April 14th, only to be unceremoniously dumped back down to the alternate site the following day. Kirilloff was the Twins first-round draft pick in 2016. Despite my belief to the contrary, Kirilloff hasn't figured in the Twins' everyday plans yet this season.

Skill: Kirilloff can really hit. He's probably more of an average over power type guy at his peak, but there's still a good chance that he pairs a 70 grade hit tool with 60-grade pop when he's done developing at the major league level. He also has a knack for hitting well in big situations, whether it's in the minor league playoffs or being unexpectedly called up to the playoffs at the Big League level. He's got a great feel for hitting with a fluid swing that doesn't get stuck in a groove. On the downside, he's a limited runner and playing anything other that 1B/LF is going to be a big stretch for him defensively. Still, we need him for fantasy purposes, so we can just be content with his power and run production potential:

Projection: Our ATC projections were optimistic pre-season, giving Kirilloff a .274/.325/.439 slash line with 12 HR and 5 SBs in 415 PAs. The stolen base numbers are wildly optimistic, as Kirilloff doesn't run well and doesn't have the type of impact speed to be a regular base stealer in the majors. Still that's a very usable profile even without the stolen bases. We just need Kirilloff to get the chance for 400+ PAs.

Nick Maton, Philadelphia Phillies

0% Rostered on Yahoo

Situation: The Phillies called up former 7th-round draft pick Nick Maton earlier this week. Maton has made two starts at shortstop since being called up, batting 8th in the order in each game.

Skill: Maton gives us a glove-first profile that's unlikely to be of much use in fantasy leagues, even in the very deep variety. His best stop in the minors came in the High-A Florida State League in 2019 where he posted a .346 wOBA with 5 home runs and 11 stolen bases over 93 games as an old-for-level prospect. Still, he should get regular playing time in the Phillies middle infield for the moment with Jean Segura on the IL.

Projection: He didn't get an ATC pre-season projection, but I think Maton can maybe give you a batting average in the .260 range with a handful of stolen bases as your best case scenario this season.

Spencer Howard, Philadelphia Phillies

4% Rostered on Yahoo

Situation: The Phillies have just called top pitching prospect Spencer Howard up to the active roster. A popular pitching stash before the 2020 season, Howard struggled in his debut, posting a 5.92 ERA over 6 starts. He's presently lined up to start the 2021 season in the bullpen for Philadelphia.

Skill: Howard flashes above-average stuff from a prototypical starter's frame. In his 2020 debut, his four-seam fastball sat around 94 mph and featured good carry at the top of the strike zone. The pitch featured 99% active spin and a 9% "rise" above the average MLB four-seamer last year. Howard's changeup was supposed to be his plus secondary offering, but it didn't have a great movement profile and didn't generate many whiffs (22.2%). His breaking balls did show some promising movement though, and his slider limited MLB bats to a .303 xwOBA. Look for him to rely heavily on the fastball if limited to a bullpen role.

Projection: If he's primarily used out of the bullpen, look for Howard to post an ERA below his current projections in the 4.50 range. He will be able to rely on his plus fastball in that role and could dominate in short stints. Most projection systems have him making around 10 starts this season. If that comes to fruition, there could be some value here. However, I would wait until we get some evidence from the team that they do want to use him in the rotation this year before grabbing Howard off the wire.

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