Rookie ADP Arbitrage - Wide Receiver

May 23, 2018

ADP projections and analysis for NFL rookie wide receivers in 2018. Martin Konstantinov looks at the top WRs that could provide comparable value to their veteran counterparts in redraft leagues.

Rookie drafts in dynasty leagues are underway across the nation and as always, we're here to help. With a mix of new, unproven rookie players at each position joining veterans who vary in age and fantasy production, it is no easy task to decide which players to take during your drafts.

We've already covered quarterback and running back, so now it's time for the glamour position, wide receiver!

Wide receivers are an interesting group to debate in dynasty drafts. Since 2014, there has been a skewed perception that receivers are supposed to be elite out of the gates if they have high draft capital invested in them. Unfortunately, it takes time for the majority of wide receivers to adjust to the NFL, meaning that, more often than not, wide receivers let down dynasty draft owners who invest early picks in them. Nevertheless, there are still some interesting options at the position this year.

Rookie ADP Arbitrage - WR

D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers

The first wide receiver chosen in the NFL Draft, D.J. Moore was selected 24th overall by the Carolina Panthers. Moore was a dominator at the college level, posting some insane stats while playing with sub-par quarterbacks for the majority of his college career. Moore was a heavy riser in the offseason leading up to the draft, and was eventually rewarded by landing in an ideal spot for fantasy with the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers have several options to be excited about, with pass-catching back Christian McCaffrey, tight end Greg Olsen, and wide receivers Devin Funchess and Torrey Smith. However, they lack a true number one target in the team's offense, and Moore has the skill set and versatility to be just that. He can operate as an X receiver, flanker, or inside in the slot, making him a weapon and matchup nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators.

Moore has the highest chance to be a fantasy star in his first year in the league, and his dynasty startup cost reflects that. Moore is going 134th overall, right in between Marqise Lee and Nelson Agholor. Moore has an arguably higher ceiling than these two options and a very similar floor (given the draft capital that the team spent on him), making him a great value play with upside potential in the middle rounds of dynasty startups. For rookie drafts, Moore is currently going eighth overall, right behind Falcons receiver Calvin Ridley. Although Ridley is a comparable talent, his situation and competition make it much less likely for him to see the kind of volume that Moore is projected to see out of the gates, making Moore a very valuable pickup at the position (although running back Royce Freeman could arguably be taken in front of him).

Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

An early second-round selection by the Denver Broncos, Courtland Sutton is going to a team that is trying to rebuild their offensive identity after a poor 2017 season. Sutton has the prototypical size and speed of a number one receiver; however, with the Broncos already having wide receiver Demaryius Thomas as the number one and Emmanuel Sanders as the number two, it will be difficult for Sutton to expect consistent playing time in front of those two. Sutton seems like a pick for the future, where he could be given the chance to succeed after studying under Thomas and Sanders for a season or two.

In dynasty startup drafts, Sutton is going ahead of D.J. Moore at 129th overall - for a player with significant potential but a difficult path to playing time in the near future, this feels like it is too early for the Broncos wide receiver. However, if you buy into his skill set, you should feel comfortable taking him in the later mid rounds. In rookie drafts, Sutton is going ninth overall, which feels a bit high considering the fact that his teammate Royce Freeman (running back) is going behind him, yet has a clear chance to be the team's workhorse back.

Equanimeous St. Brown, Notre Dame

A sixth-round pick for the Green Bay Packers, Equanimeous St. Brown was a terrific value pick for the team after he was projected to go much higher. Standing at 6'5'', St. Brown has all of the physical traits to be a leading receiver and will get to play alongside one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time in Aaron Rodgers. However, St. Brown was chosen after the Packers already selected two wide receivers in front of him, meaning that the team didn't believe he had the only chance to assume a position as a role player on the team. This lack of trust in St. Brown should cause fantasy owners who look at his athletic profile to consider that there are several options on the Packers offense who will play significantly that will mitigate the value of St. Brown early on in his career.

St. Brown is currently being drafted outside of the top 200 players in dynasty startup drafts, making him a great lottery ticket pick if you believe in his ability to produce at the next level. However, in rookie drafts, the tall wide receiver is going in the second round, ahead of players such as wide receivers Michael Gallup and D.J. Chark as well as running back Kalen Ballage. All three of those options have easier paths to playing time in 2018, making St. Brown fairly overpriced in rookie drafts.

More 2018 Fantasy Football & ADP Analysis