Rookie ADP Arbitrage - QB

May 17, 2018

ADP projections and analysis for NFL rookie quarterbacks in 2018. Martin Konstantinov looks at the top QBs that could provide comparable value to their veteran counterparts in redraft leagues.

With the 2018 NFL Draft firmly in the rearview mirror, now is the time of year where dynasty fantasy football owners lick their lips and get ready for their rookie drafts. However, for first year dynasty players or players who are entering a new dynasty league, a dynasty startup draft is how players get allocated to each owner.

These drafts also occur at this time of year, and deciphering the value of certain players can be pretty tricky. With a mix of new, unproven rookie players at each position joining veterans who vary in age and fantasy production, it is no easy task to decide which players to take during your drafts.

Specifically at the quarterback position, taking a proven commodity over an unknown rookie is most likely your smartest bet when constructing a dynasty roster. However, there might be some rookies this year who you could feasibly take that are better/have more upside than others at the position who are ranked similarly. Using Fantasy Football Calculator's dynasty rankings, let's see if we can find some value plays that are rookies at the quarterback position.

Rookie ADP Arbitrage - QB

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

It's no secret that Lamar Jackson is a freak of nature. The 2016 Heisman Trophy winner has dominated college football with his electric plays for the majority of his career, and he should be one of the next strong NFL quarterbacks. However, as with many athletes in this day and age, Jackson was a controversial candidate at the position and ended up falling to 32nd overall in this year's NFL Draft, where he was picked by the Baltimore Ravens. Jackson offers the most long-term fantasy upside of any of the rookie signal-callers, as his rushing ability gives him an unbelievably high floor and his ability to throw out of the pocket elevates his ceiling above his peers. Although Jackson will not likely be the starter for the Ravens, he is currently ranked far higher than incumbent starter Joe Flacco in dynasty drafts. In startup leagues, Jackson is the 141st player overall, going in between kicker Justin Tucker and Steelers running back James Conner. With Jackson's talent level and a mid-round ADP, if you snag a decent signal-caller in the earlier middle rounds and get Jackson to pair up with him, you are in great shape for both the short and long-term. In dynasty rookie drafts, Jackson is going as the 12th player off the board, in between Lions running back Kerryon Johnson and Cardinals wide receiver Christian Kirk. While both offer short and long-term upside, Jackson's ceiling is far above theirs; if you decide to go quarterback early, Jackson should be your guy, hands down no question.

Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns

Another intriguing prospect, Mayfield was the first overall pick and was chosen by the Cleveland Browns. Mayfield is currently sitting behind veteran Tyrod Taylor (a fantasy name in his own right), yet the high draft capital that was spent on the rookie signals that he may see the field sooner rather than later, especially with Taylor having a one year deal with the team (despite the Browns trading a third-round pick for him). Mayfield is currently going in between tight end Tyler Eifert and wide receiver Donte Moncrief; both of these players are proven fantasy commodities with question marks that have the chance to produce immediately and for the next few years as well. Therefore, Mayfield (despite his high ceiling), is a risky pick in dynasty startup drafts due to the players around him. With a rookie draft ADP of 14th overall, Mayfield should not be chosen ahead of Lamar Jackson in any circumstance. However, if you believe that he will get playing time soon, it would not be unwise to spend a mid-2nd round pick on the quarterback this year. Just be aware that other solid options exist later in the draft that have the potential to be just as good as Mayfield in the short and long-term.

Josh Rosen, Arizona Cardinals

Speaking of one of those options, Josh Rosen is a very intriguing player at the position. Rosen was a star at UCLA and was a locked in first round pick by the Arizona Cardinals at 10th overall. Rosen is a very talented player, but some negative draft hype around him was likely the reason he fell behind Jets quarterback Sam Darnold and Bills signal-caller Josh Allen. Nevertheless, standing behind injury-prone Sam Bradford on the depth chart, Rosen will be given every chance to win the starting job, especially if the Cardinals start the season poorly.

In startup drafts, Rosen is not in the top 200, making him a late-round steal with extremely high upside. He will likely go in the last few rounds of your startup drafts, and you should take him over lottery ticket taxi squad players because his draft capital suggests that he will be given every opportunity to be a bona fide starter in the NFL early in his career. In rookie drafts, Rosen is the third quarterback off the board, going in the mid-2nd round, just ahead of 6th round pick Equanimeous St. Brown and nearly a round higher than Bills quarterback Josh Allen (who has a very easy chance at starting the 2018 season as the Bills number one quarterback). Regardless, Rosen has the most upside of the quarterbacks not named Jackson and Mayfield (although you could throw Darnold in the mix as well), making him a very solid option to target in rookie drafts this year.

More 2018 Fantasy Football & ADP Analysis