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L.A. Rams wide receiver Robert Woods has been a bust in fantasy football heading into Week 4 of the 2021 season. How worried should we be about his fantasy production at WR?
Matthew Stafford and the new look Rams' passing attack has taken the league by storm. The Los Angeles Rams currently sit at 3-0, and Stafford is leading the way with 913 passing yards and nine touchdowns. He's racked up two NFC Offensive Player of the Week awards in three weeks and is on pace for over 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns. The Rams' decision to move on from Jared Goff and bring Stafford into town has paid off for everyone involved. Everyone except Robert Woods.
It's unlikely that this is bothering Woods at all - he's playing with the best quarterback he's ever played with on a team that seems on pace to make a deep run into the playoffs. But the lack of production from Woods is certainly worrisome for us imaginary football players who have him on our roster. Through three games, Woods has racked up a measly 11 catches for 124 yards and a touchdown. He's on pace for roughly 62 catches, 702 yards and five touchdowns through a 17-game season.
Just how worried should we be about Robert Woods? Let's examine this by answering three questions about the nine-year vet.
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Is Robert Woods washed?
Short answer? No.
Long answer? Noooooooo. Woods remains a vital part of the Rams' offense. He's on the field almost the entire game, every game. He's still second on the team in targets, second in receptions, and second in touchdowns. And even though his PFF grade of 66.1 isn't that impressive, it's only five points less than last year. He has dropped two passes in three games, an uncharacteristic number for Woods, but I'm not ready to worry about that just yet.
Talent-wise, Woods is still the guy you drafted. But the Rams' offense has evolved, and the evolution has clearly benefited other players more than it has benefited Woods.
How has the Rams' offense changed?
They got a new quarterback. Duh!
The answer really is as simple as that, but of course there is a ton to discuss in just how the offense changed
When Jared Goff was at the helm for the Rams, the passing game played, for lack of a better term, horizontally. They relied on the short passing game quite a bit in the early years of Goff and Sean McVay, and they almost exclusively relied on it in the later years. McVay simply didn't trust Goff to throw the ball deep at the end of his time in Los Angeles. Goff's yards per attempt dropped from 8.4 in 2018 to 7.2 in 2020. Goff ranked 21st in the NFL in yards per attempt in 2020.
The most notable shift in the Rams' offensive philosophy when Stafford took over was just how much they're looking to take shots deep. Stafford is currently averaging 10 yards per attempt, a full yard more than any quarterback averaged last season and nearly three yards more than Goff averaged last season. The Rams have scored three 50+ yard passing touchdowns this season, which is already more than they recorded last year.
Clearly, the shift in offensive philosophy has benefited the Rams. The team is third in the NFL in points, a category that they finished bottom-10 in last season. Stafford is considered an MVP candidate. Cooper Kupp is well on his way to an All-Pro selection. The Rams are a Super Bowl contender.
Why hasn't Woods benefited from the improved offense?
Robert Woods isn't a deep threat. He's a possession receiver in the short game and a YAC monster. The Rams relied on Woods a ton over the past few seasons due to Goff's shortcomings as a passer. The Rams dialed up a ton of short-yardage passing plays for Woods during the Goff era and he made the most of them. He finished top 10 in the NFL in YAC in each of the last two seasons, despite never finishing in the top 15 in yards.
The Rams simply haven't needed to dial up a vintage Robert Woods screen pass the way they needed to last season. They aren't dinking and dunking their way down the field like they have in the past. They've been looking long and moving quick. Despite being third in the NFL in points, the Rams are currently sitting in the bottom 10 when it comes to plays-per-game and time of possession.
They haven't needed to call Woods' number much this year. And while everything mentioned above is a big factor in that regard, another major factor - and probably the most concerning for fantasy owners - is the breakout year that Cooper Kupp is having.
Kupp and Woods have been able to seamlessly succeed together since they both joined the Rams in 2017, and for the most parts their targets, receptions and yards have been almost identical from a pace perspective. Take a look at least year:
- Robert Woods (2020) - 129 targets, 90 receptions, 936 yards (494 YAC), six touchdowns
- Cooper Kupp (2020) - 124 targets, 92 receptions, 974 yards (525 YAC), three touchdowns
The Rams offense wasn't very versatile in 2020, so Kupp and Woods tended to do a lot of the same things. Woods found the endzone more in 2020, but Kupp found it more in 2019.
But something changed has changed with Kupp this season. While Woods hasn't seemed to have lost a step, Kupp has gained a step, and that's saying something considering he's always been a very talented player. The Rams have noticed and made him the focal point of their new-and-improved offense. As a result, Kupp has put up the best receiving numbers in the NFL through three games and his numbers dwarf what Woods has done:
- Robert Woods (2021) - 19 targets, 11 receptions, 124 yards (34 YAC), one touchdown
- Cooper Kupp (2021) - 33 targets, 25 receptions, 367 yards (174 YAC), five touchdowns
In the past, the passing game has run through Kupp and Woods. This year, it's just running through Kupp, with Woods joining the likes of Van Jefferson and DeSean Jackson as supporting players. Woods has more receptions than Jackson and Jefferson but fewer yards - more proof that the Rams are playing vertical football this season.
Now, let's get back to the original question at hand.
How worried should we be about Robert Woods?
Moderately worried. This isn't the first time Woods has started out slow. In 2019, Woods opened the season with 13 receptions for 143 yards and no touchdowns - an even worse fantasy start than he's had this season - and he still managed to finish as the WR14 in PPR. There are reasons to be bullish. There are also reasons to be bearish.
The bull case for Woods is that the Rams simply haven't needed to call his number yet. They can't successfully sling bombs for 17 straight games. They'll need to play the short game at times this year, and Woods will flourish when they do. And even if Kupp continues to have a monster season, there is plenty of yards to go around if Stafford is on pace for 5,000. There's enough room at the table for both of them, and Woods should rebound in a big way.
The bear case is that the Rams have simply evolved as an offense and Woods hasn't evolved with them. Kupp has grown as a player and has become Stafford's go-to target. He's going to feast this year, while guys like Woods and Jefferson will be role players who won't have their number called all that much. Without Goff, the Rams just don't need Robert Woods as their safety blanket.
The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle of the two cases. It's hard to believe that Woods has any chance of justifying his ADP of WR14 with Kupp playing the way he's playing. But it's also hard to believe he'll be this brutal for the entire season. The Rams will need to rely on him at some point, and they still clearly believe in him as a player given his high snap shares in a crowded receiver room. They just might not need to rely on him as much as they used to. Woods should round out into a high-end WR3/FLEX play once he's able to establish a higher floor.
I'd hold on Woods for now. We know what his ceiling is, and his value isn't anywhere near that right now. It's a marathon, not a sprint. Let's just hope the Rams offense stops their nonstop sprint so Woods can get back in the mix.
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