X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Cost Analysis - Robbie Ray vs Andrew Heaney

Starting pitchers Robbie Ray and Andrew Heaney are fantasy baseball draft options with different ADPs that might provide similar value in 2019. Ben Holmes examines each player to decide how to approach the position on draft day.

When drafting a pitcher, the vast majority of owners put an emphasis on upside, selecting a player based on his best-case scenario. That’s what makes Diamondbacks starter Robbie Ray so intriguing, and why he has a 120 ADP.

After lighting up the league in 2017, people are still holding out hope that the best is yet to come for the hard-throwing lefty. However, on draft day proceed with caution when putting such a high value on a player with control issues as bad as Ray.

A little farther down the draft board, a pitcher with similar upside may be found in Andrew Heaney. Is the cost differential justified or should you hold out for a less-heralded left-hander?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Robbie Ray - 120 ADP

The 27-year-old southpaw was flat out filthy in 2017. The 1.15 WHIP was nice, the 2.89 ERA was even better, but the 32.8 K% was what really made him a stand out. Only Chris Sale (12.93 K/9) had a higher K/9. Going into 2018, Ray was expected by many to at least come close to replicating those gaudy numbers. Those expectations seemed lofty then and are certainly unreasonable heading into 2019.

During his outlier 2017, Ray had the fifth-lowest ERA in all of baseball (2.89), even though his FIP (3.72) ranked 17th. His career BABIP currently sits at a relatively high .314, but during his All-Star season two years ago, it sat at .267. He also exceeded his career average strand rate (74.9) by almost 10% (84.5). The point being he outperformed all of his peripherals in a largely unsustainable way.

The most glaring hole in Ray’s game is his control. In his All-Star season, he managed to survive with a 10.7 BB%. It’s a testament to his electric stuff that his lack of control didn’t manifest to a WHIP higher than 1.15. However, when putting so many men on base, there is a high likelihood for some really bad outings.

Last season the expected regression came, and it all fell apart for Ray. His off-speed stuff was almost as effective as 2017 but his fastball became a liability. In one year, the whiff rate on his 4-seamer dropped from 26.1% to 19.9%, and his BB% on that 94mph went from bad (12.4%) to worse (16.6%).

While Ray still would have finished fifth in the league with a 31.4 K% if he pitched enough innings to qualify, all his numbers regressed to the mean last year. His ERA (3.93) was once again lower than his FIP (4.31,) his BABIP (.292) negatively regressed much closer to his career average, and his WHIP was an alarming 1.35.

Ray is by no means a lost cause, nor will he be a fantasy bust. In fact, his 3.23 ERA in 65.1 innings after the All-Star game is encouraging. However, owners need to temper expectations and anticipate drafting a pitcher that will give them production more in line with his 2018 season. Meaning an inconsistent, high strikeout, high WHIP pitcher, with a high-threes ERA. He will be of use to a fantasy team but that is the kind of production that can be found much later than 120th overall.

 

Andrew Heaney - 168 ADP

While we may have already seen the best that Ray has to offer (and it's darn good), there is a former first-round pick that is just starting to scratch the surface of his potential - Andrew Heaney. Heaney is going to take the mound on Opening Day for the Angels in an attempt to build on a very encouraging 2018. Yet, his current ADP is 168, meaning he could be one of the best value picks of the year.

The former 2012 ninth-overall pick only went 9-10 with a 4.15 ERA in 2018, which will help him sneak under the radar in most drafts. His lefty-righty and home-away splits were extreme last year, but are sure to become more consistent. His numbers against right-handers (4.77 ERA,) will improve and he can hopefully carry his home success (3.22 home ERA) on the road.

His final numbers don’t jump out, however, when compared to Ray’s they start to look a little more impressive. A 6.0 BB% was less than half of Ray’s 13.3%. His strike to K/BB ratio last year was 4.0, the highest of Ray’s career was 3.07 in 2017 due to his remarkably high walk rate. Ray garners more attention because strikeouts are flashy but Heaney’s K-BB% was 18.0, an insignificant 0.1% lower than Ray’s (18.1%.) Heaney’s 3.99 FIP was also lower than Ray’s 4.31.

The Angels ace should have actually finished with better overall numbers. They took a hit after he faulted down the stretch, but that can likely be attributed to pitching 180 innings, after a previous high of 105.2 in 2015. He should also mature as a pitcher after it looks like he is now fully recovered from Tommy John surgery.

From the start of May until the end of June, the former prospect had a 3.25 ERA to go with a 1.07 WHIP. It’s not unreasonable to think Heaney can match these numbers across an entire season in 2019. Very few starters compare to Ray in terms of swing-and-miss stuff, but Heaney is no slouch. A 9.0 K/9 indicates that if he continues to grow his innings then he could reach 2000 K’s, and owners won’t have to deal with such a pronounced lack of control.

 

The Decision

Simply put, Heaney is trending upward whereas Ray, and the Diamondbacks as a team, seem to be heading in the opposite direction. Losing Goldschmidt and A.J Pollock will surely result in a much lower record than their 82-80 2018, and thus less win potential and run support.

Heaney is going 48 spots, exactly four rounds later than Ray, when realistically he should outperform the 2017 All-Star in wins, quality starts, WHIP, and ERA.

More Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF