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ANALYSIS: While Robbie Ray's name doesn't jump off of the page, his stats in the second half just might. His 4-8 record and 4.81 ERA don't paint the picture of a high level starting pitcher, but looking below the surface offers some crucial insight. To start with, only seven qualified pitchers have struck out more batters on a per-9 basis this year than Ray, as his K/9 is in line with pitchers like Clayton Kershaw, Noah Syndergaard, and Danny Salazar. That's decent company. In addition to his high strikeout rate, Ray has also been a victim of some very poor luck, as his current .367 BABIP is both laughably high and the highest of any qualified starting pitcher. High strikeout, high BABIP pitchers are my favorite guys to target, as more often than not they will positively regress to the mean.
Ray's BABIP woes can't entirely be attributed to bad luck, though, as he allows slightly more hard contract than league average, and certainly isn't aided by pitching in front of one of the weaker defenses in the National League. However, despite these concerns, a .367 BABIP isn't remotely sustainable, and Ray could be in line for a big second half if he can benefit from some positive regression on that front.
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