2023 Fantasy Football RBs To Prioritize In PPR, But Fade In Standard Leagues

July 11, 2023

Adam Koffler identifies NFL running backs that are more valuable in PPR leagues than in standard leagues in 2023. Which RBs should fantasy football managers prioritize this season?

Some people play in standard (non-PPR) fantasy football leagues, some play in half-PPR leagues, and some play in full-PPR leagues. Each type has its advantages and disadvantages, but what's more important is identifying the players who best fit each type of league.

Some running backs are rarely targeted. Take J.K. Dobbins, Isiah Pacheco, and Rashaad Penny for example. These guys averaged one or fewer targets last season. They're simply not involved in the passing game for various reasons. Perhaps they struggle in pass protection, or maybe their team relies on a specialized third-down back. Regardless, they are not the best RBs to target in PPR leagues.

Once you have a solid understanding of your league's specific settings, you can start targeting the players you want in the draft. Keeping that in mind, here are four RBs you should prioritize in PPR leagues for the 2023 season.

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones has always been utilized in the passing game by the Packers, but that has been even more prevalent in the last two seasons while playing with AJ Dillon full-time. Let's take a look:

In comparison, PPR cheat codes Austin Ekeler and Christian McCaffrey have averaged 35% and 30.3%, respectively, over the last two seasons. With Jones hovering around 26-27%, he's approaching the level of a PPR cheat code himself.

Now, let's consider the new Green Bay quarterback Jordan Love. While he may run more at this stage of his career compared to Aaron Rodgers last season (who only had 34 rushing attempts in 17 games), he is not expected to be on the same level as Jalen Hurts or similar quarterbacks. In his one start back in 2021, Love rushed five times for 23 yards and targeted his running backs approximately 18% of the time.

The advantage for Jones (and fantasy managers in PPR leagues) is that the Packers have Dillon as their powerful bruiser. They prefer to use their 247-pound back for running up the gut out of I-formation. Almost 84% of Dillon's career opportunities have been rush attempts. By maximizing Dillon's rushing attempts, it allows Jones to focus on his strength in the passing game, where he excels.

Furthermore, the Packers are expected to participate in several high-scoring games. The NFC North division has several weak defenses. This usually benefits pass-catching backs, as they tend to see more playing time in obvious passing and hurry-up-type situations. It's important to prioritize Jones in PPR leagues for the upcoming season.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

The Lions surprised everyone by selecting Jahmyr Gibbs 12th overall after Bijan Robinson was chosen by the Falcons with the eighth pick. Shortly after, Detroit traded D'Andre Swift to the Eagles in exchange for a future fourth-round pick and a pick swap in this year's draft.

At that point, it became clear that Gibbs was likely stepping into the role Swift had in the previous season. David Montgomery, whom the Lions acquired in free agency, would take on a role similar to Jamaal Williams. Here are some early projections from @DaveKluge at footballguys.com:

Taking Dave's projections into account highlights the value of a pass-catching running back, especially in PPR leagues. Dave projects Gibbs to have 110 fewer opportunities than Montgomery this season, but that translates to just 38.8 fewer fantasy points in his projections.

This is largely due to the significant contribution of receptions, accounting for nearly 50 points. While this split may not be entirely accurate, it is evident that the Lions plan to utilize Gibbs, who excelled as a pass-catching back in college, in the same role in the NFL. Considering Gibbs' potential as a receiver, take a look at the opportunity he has as a rookie:

Despite playing less than 45% of the snaps in 2022, Swift still finished as RB15 on a per-game basis in PPR leagues. This was achieved even with a career-low 68.6% catch rate. In 2021, Swift had an almost 80% catch rate and a 65% snap rate, resulting in a top-10 RB finish on a per-game basis.

While Gibbs may not reach a 65% snap rate with Montgomery sharing a significant workload, it would be surprising to see him fall below a 40% snap rate. Given his draft position and projected role in the Detroit offense, Gibbs' floor appears to be RB15, with a ceiling potentially as high as RB5. This makes him an intriguing option for those playing in PPR leagues.

Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders

After carrying the ball 258 times in 2021, Antonio Gibson found himself mostly behind rookie Brian Robinson Jr. on the depth chart in 2022. He recorded a career-low of 149 carries but saw a career-high of 58 targets in just 15 games.

This occurred even with J.D. McKissic playing eight games. According to PlayerProfiler, Gibson achieved career-highs in route % (42%), routes run (14.2 per game), and target share (12%). The Commanders have shown a strong inclination toward targeting Gibson on those routes, especially with McKissic no longer on the team for half a season.

Remember when McKissic finished as RB17 in PPR leagues in 2020, despite accumulating fewer than 1,000 yards and just three total touchdowns? That was due to his 80 catches on 110 targets. While it may not be reasonable to project Gibson for 110 targets, he will be filling the McKissic role, which should result in an increase in targets.

If Gibson becomes what Swift was for the Lions, why can't he be a top-20 RB in PPR leagues in 2023? He has the potential. The best part is that you can draft him around RB34, according to the average draft position (ADP). Additionally, let's not forget that the Commanders' new offensive coordinator is Eric Bieniemy, who heavily utilized the screen game during his time with the Chiefs.

The next running back we'll discuss as a target in PPR leagues was a favorite of Bieniemy. With Brian Robinson Jr. handling the early-down carries, Gibson has the opportunity to become what we have seen from Swift (and now Jahmyr Gibbs) during his days with Detroit. Prioritizing Gibson in PPR leagues this season, especially given his affordable price tag, would be wise.

Jerick McKinnon, Kansas City Chiefs

Jerick McKinnon was a Bieniemy favorite during his time in Kansas City over the past two seasons. Unexpectedly, the 31-year-old back revived his career in the 2021 playoffs. He then continued to excel in the passing game by catching 56 balls on 71 targets in 2022, despite having only a 45% snap share and a 33% opportunity share.

What makes McKinnon particularly valuable for PPR leagues is that he receives as many targets as carries. Last season, he had just 72 carries compared to 71 targets. This is precisely what we look for when prioritizing running backs in PPR leagues.

According to PlayerProfiler, McKinnon averaged 18 routes per game, had a route percentage of 47.1%, and had a yards per route run of 1.67, ranking him eighth among all running backs. Surprisingly, he also ranked first in yards created per touch with an impressive 5.56 yards. This is quite remarkable for a 31-year-old scatback. However, McKinnon's value extends beyond his on-field performance.

The Chiefs rely on him as Patrick Mahomes' most trusted blocker from the backfield. Considering the importance of protecting a $450 million quarterback, having McKinnon, one of the best blockers in the business, is a wise decision. Consequently, he sees significant playing time in situations that present high-value opportunities. He was also heavily involved in the red zone, tallying 32 touches, which tied with Isiah Pacheco.

While McKinnon may not be a weekly starter for your fantasy team, you can confidently rely on him as a fill-in during bye weeks or when other players on your team inevitably face injuries throughout the season. He comes at a reasonable cost and offers upside due to his pass-catching skills and his ability to protect one of the best quarterbacks in football.

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