Ranking College Football Playoff Teams By Toughest Paths To The National Championship

December 13, 2024

Justin's College Football Playoff championship path power rankings. Read our NCAA CFB playoff rankings, and how the path to the championship for each of the 12 teams stack up.

The 12-team College Football Playoff is finally here, with the first-round set to kick off on Friday, December 20. It's so weird that we're about to see a playoff system in the FBS where teams could play as many as four playoff games.

The bracket for the playoffs is odd. The four byes went to the four highest-ranked division champions, which creates some really strange scenarios. For example, five-seed Texas has an easier quarterfinal matchup than one-seed Oregon will have, assuming Texas gets past Clemson.

Below, I've ranked every team's playoff path from easiest to hardest. This is only taking into account how tough their opponents are, not how good the team itself is.

12. Penn State

This might be an unpopular pick since Penn State has to play an extra game than Georgia does, but the bracket is perfectly set up for the Nittany Lions to make a run.

In the first round, Penn State hosts an SMU team that was 0-2 against ranked teams this season. Then, the team would face No. 3 seed Boise State in the quarterfinals, a Mountain West team that lost its only game against a power conference foe.

A semifinal meeting with Georgia would be tough, but the team avoids Oregon until the championship game. With only one undefeated team in the playoff field, avoiding that team for as long as possible is huge.

11. Georgia

Georgia gets a bye in the first round and is set to face the winner of Notre Dame/Indiana in the quarterfinals.

A meeting with the Irish certainly won't be easy, as the team has won 10 in a row and would make it 11 with a first-round victory over Indiana.

But neither of the potential quarterfinal's matchups are that scary. Notre Dame has a big win over Army on its resume, but the team also lost to Northern Illinois, perhaps the worst loss of any playoff team.

As for Indiana, the Hoosiers played a very weak schedule and looked completely overmatched against Ohio State.

Georgia could face a good Penn State team in the semifinals, but being on the opposite side of the bracket from Oregon and Texas is huge.

10. Boise State

Boise State getting the three seed as a Mountain West champion is not what anyone thought this format would produce. I'm fairly certain that heading into the season, every prediction had the byes going to the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, and SEC champs. But ACC champion Clemson was a three-loss team and earned the 12 seed, opening the door for the Broncos.

Boise State will likely be underdogs whether they face Penn State or SMU in the Quarterfinal. Luckily, Boise State as underdogs in the Fiesta Bowl is one of the strongest forces known to man. pic.twitter.com/eDiTEyPavp

— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) December 9, 2024

Getting the three seed instead of the four seed is huge for this team's path forward. Instead of a quarterfinal game against Texas, Boise is likely looking at a game against Penn State. Nothing against Penn State, but if I had to play one of those two teams in a big game, I'd pick James Franklin's squad.

9. Texas

Getting the fifth seed is huge because it means Texas faces the lowest seed in the first round and then has the easiest quarterfinal matchup against Arizona State.

That's not to say there aren't issues with the team's path. Having to play an extra game due to losing the SEC Championship Game is a negative, as is the fact that a semifinal game against undefeated Oregon is likely on the horizon.

Still, the Horns are very well-positioned to make a run to at least the semifinals. Getting to face an untested Arizona State team in that second game is huge for Quinn Ewers and company.

8. Notre Dame

Notre Dame enters the playoffs on a 10-game win streak and hosts Indiana in the first round. The Hoosiers were a dominant team in the regular season, winning 11 games.

But Indiana also played exactly one team that is currently ranked, losing 38-15 to Ohio State. The Hoosiers look like a good team, but it's fair to wonder how much of that was because of the schedule they played.

A road meeting with Georgia in the quarterfinals is the toughest test for the Irish, but a win there sets up a winnable semifinal meeting with one of Boise State, Penn State, and SMU.

7. Arizona State

The good news for the Sun Devils? The team has a bye. The bad news? They very likely have to play Texas in the second round, a team that was undefeated against teams that aren't Georgia.

A win there would set up a semifinal meeting with either Oregon, Ohio State, or Tennessee, which is a difficult one, but the Sun Devils getting a bye and having a chance to play 12th-seeded Clemson makes the path relatively neutral compared to the other teams.

6. SMU

If SMU had defeated Clemson in the ACC title game, the team would likely be the No. 4 seed. Instead, the team got the final at-large bid and is the No. 11 seed.

1978

Penn State 26
SMU 21

The last time these two teams ever met 👀 pic.twitter.com/nLm23aNKox

— State Media (@StateMediaPSU) December 9, 2024

The Mustangs have to open play on the road against Penn State, then go on the road again to face a well-rested Boise State team if they win.

Those might not be the hardest games on the bracket, but they're low-key a very, very difficult way to start the playoff. If SMU is alive after that, the team likely plays Georgia.

5. Clemson

Clemson only made the playoff field by virtue of its ACC Championship Game win over SMU, giving the team the final auto bid. Its reward is a road matchup with Texas to start the playoff.

The good news for the Tigers is that if they get past that game, the quarterfinals get a lot easier as the team will face Arizona State there. Still, opening on the road against the Horns and having Oregon likely waiting in the semifinals if the team somehow made it there makes this a fairly difficult schedule.

4. Oregon

Among the four teams with a first-round bye, Oregon's path stands out as the toughest. The fact that the Ducks are the No. 1 seed and have to face either Tennessee or Ohio State in the second round is tough.

And sure, a semifinal matchup with four-seed Arizona State could be a sigh of relief, but there's a very good chance that Oregon will instead wind up taking on five-seed Texas there, a team whose only losses of the year were both to Georgia.

3. Ohio State

Ohio State has a nightmare path to the championship. The team gets to host Tennessee in the first round, which will be a tough game but is made a little easier by it being in Columbus.

Then, if the Buckeyes win that one, they get to face undefeated Oregon in the quarterfinals.

There's a good shot that the Buckeyes have to beat Tennessee, Oregon, Texas, and Georgia to win the title. That's a murderer's row of teams.

2. Indiana

Indiana went 11-1 this season. What did that get the Hoosiers? A road meeting with Notre Dame to open the playoff. The Irish have won 10 in a row.

Georgia is waiting in the quarterfinals. It's just a very hard path for this Hoosiers team. If there's good news, it's that the only way a rematch with Ohio State -- the only team to hand Indiana a loss -- wouldn't come until the title game.

1. Tennessee

Tennessee has the same difficult path as Ohio State, but one thing makes it even tougher, which is that Tennessee has to actually play against Ohio State. In my power rankings of all the playoff teams, I had the Buckeyes at No. 3.

BREAKING: College GameDay will be in Columbus on Dec. 21 for Tennessee vs. Ohio State. pic.twitter.com/BckGu057YT

— Vol Report (@AllVolReport) December 11, 2024

So, there's a very real chance that the path to a Tennessee championship looks like this: Ohio State > Oregon > Texas > Georgia. No other team has a path that difficult.

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