Touchdown Regression Candidates - Quarterback

July 29, 2021

Some quarterbacks coming off successful seasons could be in line for disappointment in 2021 if their TD rate sees negative regression, while others should positively regress to the mean. Antonio Losada identifies QBs that could disappoint or have bounceback years next season.

Throwing a lot of touchdowns? Good! Throwing a lot of touchdowns at a rate that surpasses either your average level or the league average level? Good when it happens, but maybe not so good the next year, when you can come crashing back down to Earth.

Not every quarterback is going to throw for Aaron Rodgers-like numbers every season. If a player tosses touchdowns at a rate that seems surprising, there's a good chance that the next season will see those numbers regress back toward their normal levels. And on the flip side, some quarterbacks who suddenly struggle could see their numbers positively regress toward their career averages.

So, which players are candidates to see regression this year? Let's find out.

Negative Regression Candidates

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers - 9.1 TD%

If you were not paying attention, or if you just don't like to play with numbers as I do, you might be not aware that last season was a historic one for A-Rod. Do you know how many times a quarterback has posted an above-9% touchdown rate in the last 21 years going back to 2000? Three! Three times has that happened! Insane. Do you want an even more mind-bending stat? Rodgers has another season at a 9.0%+ touchdown rate, taking place in 2011. That's bonkers, folks.

Only Peyton Manning and Rodgers have been able to have two seasons finishing with 8% or higher TD% rates in the last 21 years. Rodgers' feat came 10 seasons apart, same as Manning. This means: there is a precedent that indicates Rodgers can throw at such ridiculous rates, yes, but odds are he does not put on three historic years--let alone doing it on back-to-back campaigns.

The Packers' offense only knew how to hit the right buttons all season long in 2020. You could expect Davante Adams to catch something close to his actual 18 TDs, but how in the world did TE Robert Tonyan finish with 11 touchdowns on a silly 59 targets!? The TD% of Tonyan was all the way up to 18.6%. The second-best mark in the past 20 years for a Green Bay player was Bubba Franks' 18.4% in 2001. Last season was also the last time since 2011 that three skill-position Packers finished above 9% each. Not going to happen again, nope.

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings - 6.8 TD%

While it is true that Cousins has become more comfortable with Minny's offense each passing (no pun intended) year and that he's gone from a 5.0 TD% to 5.9% and finally 6.8%, what are the odds he pulls off a re-do in 2021? Cousins has only topped that latter mark once in his career, back in 2012 when he threw touchdowns in 8.3% of his pass attempts... while playing just three games and throwing 48 passes on the year.

Looking at his career, but excluding seasons in which Cousins played at least eight games, his touchdown rate sits at an average of 5.3%. That's more than closer to his true talent level than the ridiculous 6.8% he put up last year, that's for sure. Cousins had crossed the 30-touchdown mark only once before (2011 Vikings) but his volume of passes has gone down and he needs to rely on extreme efficiency to reach those kinds of marks.

Minny's trio of Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, and Irv Smith Jr. combined for 26 touchdowns in 2020. That is the most touchdowns from a three-player group in Cousins' three seasons in Minnesota. The second-highest mark: 22 back in 2018 with peaking Stefon Diggs, Thielen, and Kyle Rudolph in tow. I expect regression from both Thielen and Jefferson, and that will ultimately lead to Cousins lowering his numbers a bit too.

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccanneers - 6.6 TD%

Before we keep going, let me remind you something: never bet against Tom Brady, kids! Brady, who straight refuses to retire, has more than a few reasons to keep playing this silly game of football. Look no further than his 2020 statline, which went on to finish as the fifth-best in his 21-year career. At age 43. What. The. Hell.

After his "decline" seemed to have started in 2016 (6.5 TD%), with marks dropping yearly to 5.5, 5.1, and 3.9 percent...Brady went on and put on a ridiculous 6.6 TD% in his first season in Tampa Bay while getting another chip to his name, just in case you were doubting him for some reason.

Brady had thrown for 40 touchdowns before, sure, only that happened in 2007 when he still was a fresh 30-year-old quarterback and hit paydirt 50 times. The Bucs are stacked, and Brady, well, is Brady, but I just refuse to believe this is sustainable in any realistic way. A lot of fantasy GMs have been saying that Brady is not a good fantasy quarterback, but numbers tell otherwise. Expect another top-12 finish, but tame your hype, folks.

Positive Regression Candidates

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons - 4.2 TD percentage

That mark isn't bad at all, let's be honest for a minute. But it surely is on the low side of things, with 25 other quarterbacks attempting at least 100 passes in 2020 while putting up better TD% numbers. It's odd because Ryan was the passer that completed the most attempts last year and one of two to complete 400+ on the full season. Getting receivers to score touchdowns, though, wasn't on Ryan's book.

Matt Ryan's volume is so high that he will always have a tough time putting up high rates. While that is true, his career average sits at 4.7%, and in the past five seasons, he's sustained an even higher 5% mark. Nothing insane, but Ryan should bounce back a bit. Julio Jones is off Atlanta, right, but Jones is also infamous for his bad touchdown numbers over an otherwise great career.

Atlanta's best TD%-receivers in the past five years (min. 75 targets) have been Mohamed Sanu (x2), Calvin Ridley (x2), and Austin Hooper in 2019. That's great because the Falcons are moving from Hooper and disappointing Hayden Hurst to the highest-drafted TE ever in Kyle Pitts, which bodes well for Ryan. They are also making Ridley the clear go-to WR and adding a more than capable pass-catcher in RB Mike Davis. Everything points in the right direction for Ryan entering his 14th season as a pro.

Daniel Jones, New York Giants - 2.5 TD%

Jones is approaching his make-it-or-break-it point as a Giant. After two seasons in which he repeated QB24 finishes, Jones is getting closer to the Giants deciding to execute or decline his fifth-year option. Jones was good in his debut campaign, finishing with 217 FP and a neat 5.2 TD% on 459 attempts. Last season, though, he regressed to 180 fantasy points on a putrid 2.5 TD% mark on virtually the same attempts, going from 24 touchdowns as a rookie to just 11 in his second year.

That should change and positively regress at least a bit. And the Giants are doing an effort for it to happen, too. New York has added the no. 1 available WR by signing Kenny Golladay from Detroit. They also have drafted a wideout in Kadarius Toney, and perhaps most importantly, they have RB Saquon Barkley back healthy and that should keep defenses way more honest than last year.

Jones' 2.5 TD rate of 2020 is the second-lowest mark of the past five seasons for a quarterback with 440+ passing attempts. There is a rather thin chance of him repeating such a bad campaign--if there is one at all. DeShone Kizer and Brock Osweiler played QB2 roles after their below-3.0% TD rate seasons, Carson Wentz rebounded to a career-high 7.5 TD%, Jacoby Brissett only started four games the following year but improved to a respectable 4.0 TD% when he started 15 games two years after that, and even Marcus Mariota improved to a low-but-better 3.3 TD% himself. There is just no precedent of a starter putting on two consecutive below-3.0 TD% seasons while starting most games. Have faith.

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