Quarterback Starts/Sits for Week 18 - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups for Lineup Decisions

January 6, 2023

Quarterback Start 'Em, Sit 'Em for fantasy football Week 18 (2022). Gage analyzes QB matchups vs. opposing defense's pass rush. His QB matchups to start or bench.

Week 18 of the NFL season has finally arrived. If you're still competing for fantasy glory, I wish you the best of luck. If you're just reading this article because it's part of your weekly routine, I thank you for coming back. The NFL has a high number of games this week between teams with nothing to play for or teams with everything to lose against those with nothing to gain. This is the week that is arguably the most difficult ones all season when it comes to fantasy.

It was another four out of six showing for us last week in this column. In the sits category, despite a late touchdown from Kenny Pickett, he still finished as QB19 on the week. Meanwhile, Geno Smith got some revenge on his old team to finish as QB11 while eliminating them from the playoffs. It's unfortunate to celebrate an injury, but Teddy Bridgewater's injured finger kept him held down last week. We nailed Brock Purdy and Patrick Mahomes, but our lone miss in the starts category was Trevor Lawrence. If you had told me Lawrence would finish as QB32 in a game where his team won 31-3 and he didn't exit in the first quarter with an injury, I would have been stunned.

No matter if you're competing for the championship or just playing in a consolation game, I appreciate your reading this and sticking around for this season. We've done well overall this year with a very high success rate overall. Now, let's just go secure the final wins before we move on to next year.

Here Comes Trouble - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups

Jacksonville Jaguars Pass Rush vs. Joshua Dobbs

At first glance, the Jacksonville Jaguars defense doesn’t look like the most intimidating group of pass rushers. On the year, they have the fifth-fewest sacks in the NFL with 31, and they have the league’s fourth-worst adjusted sack rate. No defensive player has more than 6.0 sacks, and their top four sackers have fewer than 20 total sacks combined. However, they’re still a good enough group to get after Tennessee Titans quarterback Joshua Dobbs.

In their last four games, the Jags have totaled 12 sacks, including four sacks of quarterback Ryan Tannehill when the two sides met four weeks ago. Now, the Titans are starting a younger quarterback with less experience with a playoff shot on the line. In last week’s loss to the Dallas Cowboys, Joshua Dobbs had more attempts, completions, yards and touchdowns than he had ever thrown for in his career. He was sacked twice, and he had one interception. These are two teams heading in opposite directions, and I’m not trying to ride the Dobbs train this week.

Verdict: Sit 'Em

New York Jets Pass Rush vs. Skylar Thompson

After looking destined for a playoff spot in November, the Miami Dolphins are starting quarterback Skylar Thompson with their season on the line in Week 18. They still have a chance at the playoffs. If they win while the New England Patriots lose, they’re in. If they lose, they’re out. For Thompson, this is a rematch of his first action from earlier this year. The New York Jets blasted the Dolphins 40-17 at home in a game where Thompson went 19-of-33 for 166 yards with zero touchdowns and one interception. He was also sacked twice while losing a fumble. 

Heading into Friday, Thompson has three different offensive linemen on the injury report, and tackle Eric Fisher was placed on Injured Reserve, which effectively ends his season. The Dolphins have given up at least two sacks in each of their last five games while dealing with hits and pressures to a great deal in each game. The Jets have nothing to play for after being eliminated from the playoffs last week, but, with a group that is seventh in the NFL in sacks and 11th in adjusted-sack rate, they’re more than good enough to play spoilers this week.

Verdict: Sit ‘Em

Buffalo Bills Pass Rush vs. Mac Jones

Five weeks ago, on a Thursday night, the Buffalo Bills manhandled New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones and his offense. While they only sacked him one time, he completed 22-of-36 passes for just 195 yards and one touchdown. 48 of those passing yards came on a screen pass to cornerback Marcus Jones in the first quarter. They were just 3-of-12 on third downs, and they had a time of possession disparity of 38 minutes to 22 minutes. Mac was simply never on the field long enough to accomplish anything. 

On the year, the Patriots are just below the league average with 40 sacks allowed, but, with such a run-heavy scheme, they’re actually worse than that on a per dropback basis. They give up sacks at the sixth-highest rate with an 8.8 percent adjusted sack rate. They’re matched up with a Bills’ defense that has been a little quiet in their last two completed games, but they did sack Mike White and Joe Flacco of the Jets four times a few weeks ago. This Bills team is likely to be playing with a lot of emotion in this game, and a win gives them a lot of leverage for the playoff run. I’d be counting on a strong showing from them.

Verdict: Sit ‘Em

Easy on Sunday Morning - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups

Arizona Cardinals Pass Rush vs. Brock Purdy

Someone should probably check on San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, because I’m pretty sure that he forgot that he was Mr. Irrelevant in the draft this past year with how he’s played since he took over for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo. In five games as the team’s primary quarterback, he’s thrown for 200 or more yards in four of the five, with the exception being the team’s blowout win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and he’s thrown 10 touchdowns compared to just three interceptions. He’s been sacked seven times, and three of those were in his first game against the Dolphins, when he found out he was playing in the middle of the game.

This 49ers’ offensive line has really settled in as the year has gone along. They’re fifth in sacks allowed, and they’re eighth in adjusted sack rate. Between their ability to run the ball and keeping their quarterback upright, it’s been a great transition to their third starting quarterback of the season. The 49ers can clinch the top seed in the NFC with a win and a loss by the Philadelphia Eagles, so I expect them to go all out for this one. The Arizona Cardinals have the league’s sixth-fewest sacks, and they totaled zero sacks on 29 dropbacks in their 38-10 blowout loss to the 49ers back in November. Other than J.J. Watt getting a sack in his final career game, I’m not counting on a Cardinals team that has absolutely nothing left to play for.

Verdict: Start 'Em

Detroit Lions Pass Rush vs. Aaron Rodgers

I couldn’t tell you the last time I mentioned Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers in my start half of this column, but I’m sure it’s going to come back to bite me on this one. Rodgers hasn’t scored more than 20 fantasy points in a single game this year. Since he became the full-time starter in the 2008 season, he’s never played a full season without at least one game where he cleared the 20-point mark. He’s gotten close a couple of times this year, but he hasn’t quite broken through yet. 

 His offensive line ranks eighth in sacks allowed, and they’re seventh in adjusted sack rate. During this four-game winning streak, Rodgers has been sacked just six times, and three of those came in the team’s game against the Los Angeles Rams. Prior last week, the Detroit Lions had just 30 sacks. Of their 37 sacks this year, 10 of them have come against the Chicago Bears, who have the league’s worst adjusted sack rate by a full three percent. In the previous matchup between these two teams, they sacked Rodgers just one time, and they took advantage of some unusual turnovers by him in the red zone. If Rodgers can take care of the ball, he can lead this team into the playoffs for the fourth straight season.

Verdict: Start ‘Em

Las Vegas Raiders Pass Rush vs. Patrick Mahomes

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and his team are vying for a piece of the top seed in the AFC following the league’s ruling of the Week 17 matchup between the Bills and Cincinnati Bengals. The Chiefs can earn a share of the top seed that would result in a potential playoff matchup between any combination of those three teams being played at a neutral site in the playoffs. However, if they lose this week, that opens up the top spot in the AFC to be completely owned by the Bills with a Buffalo win in Week 18.

Mahomes has been the best quarterback all season long from a consistency standpoint, and he’ll look to finish the season strong here. He’s scored 20 or more points in each of his last three games, and he cleared the 30-point threshold against the Las Vegas Raiders in the first matchup between these two teams back in Week 5. His offensive line is third in sacks allowed and third in adjusted-sack rate. Meanwhile, the Raiders are on the opposite end of the spectrum. They have the third-fewest sacks and the second-worst adjusted sack rate. They had three sacks of Mahomes in the first meeting, but Mahomes and the Chiefs look like they’re planning on knocking this Raiders team down and out.

Verdict: Start 'Em

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