Quarterback Starts/Sits for Week 17 - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups for Lineup Decisions

We have made it to Week 17 of the NFL season. If you're still contending in your leagues, congratulations are in order to you as the majority of leagues are competing for fantasy championships this week. This is what we've worked for for the past several months, and every decision we make is going to be the difference between walking into next season as the reigning champ or heading into the offseason wondering what could have been.

We hit four out of six for the second week in a row. Davis Mills and Desmond Ridder gave us two sweat-free hits, but Baker Mayfield made the Denver Broncos defense non-existent en route to a QB12 finish on the week. On the other side of the world, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes continued their strong seasons as they both finished inside the top seven at the position for the week. Justin Herbert was our lone miss among the starts, and he continues to be a fickle choice in fantasy lineups with the team scoring a fair bit but mostly doing it on the ground.

No matter if you're competing for the championship or just playing in a consolation game, I appreciate your reading this and sticking around for this season. We've done well overall this year with a very high success rate overall. Now, let's just go secure the final wins before we move on to next year.

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Here Comes Trouble - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups

Baltimore Ravens Pass Rush vs. Kenny Pickett

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett has been up and down this year, and he’s riding high following his late touchdown pass that put his team on top over the Las Vegas Raiders a week ago. On the year, Pickett has been sacked 24 times in 11 games, although he’s really only played in 10 after exiting early against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 14. His offensive line is in the middle of the pack with 35 sacks allowed and an adjusted sack rate of 6.5 percent.

This week, it’s a primetime matchup with those same Ravens in a game that can make or break the team’s postseason hopes. If Pittsburgh loses, their playoff dreams are dead. The Ravens still have a shot at a division title, but they need some help to get that done. Their defense has been one of the best units in the NFL over the last month. On the year, they’re fifth in sacks and fourth in adjusted sack rate. This group can stress Pickett in the pocket, and I’m fading the rookie in this one.

Verdict: Sit 'Em

New York Jets Pass Rush vs. Geno Smith

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith and company were sitting pretty and looked like they were en route for a surefire playoff berth. If it weren’t for a last-minute comeback win over the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle would be in the middle of a six-game losing streak instead of losing five of their last six. One major theme throughout this stretch has been the struggling offensive line play. They’ve given up 18 sacks over those six games, and they’ve allowed three or more in all but one game. On the year, they’re 22nd in sacks allowed, and their adjusted sack rate has them in the bottom half of the league as well.

He goes up against his old team this week in a game where, if the New York Jets lose, they are eliminated from the playoffs while the Seahawks’ path gets a lot more difficult if they come up short. The Jets have been riding their defense all year, and that’s not changing this week. This group is 10th in the league in sacks and adjusted sack rate, and they’re 11th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Geno was a late-round darling all year, but he’s in a tough spot in this championship week.

Verdict: Sit ‘Em

New England Patriots Pass Rush vs. Tedy Bridgewater

Miami Dolphins quarterback Teddy Bridgewater will be under center this week with teammate Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) on the shelf for this week and possibly the remainder of the year. He gets his second start of the year in the friendly confines of the northeast against the New England Patriots. He’ll be playing behind an offensive line that ranks 12th in sacks allowed, but they’ve been giving up a fair number of quarterback hits this year. They have the ninth-highest pressure rate allowed, and they’ve given up the eighth-most hits despite being blitzed less than any team in the NFL. 

This New England front has been really getting after the quarterback as of late, and they have steadily climbed the ranks all season long. They’re second in sacks with 50, and they’re third in the league in adjusted sack rate at 8.9 percent. Meanwhile, they’re tied for the league lead in pressure rate at 24.7 percent and leading the NFL by a full percentage point in hurry rate. This team still has an outside shot at the playoffs, and they’ll be counting on the defense to get them there.

Verdict: Sit ‘Em

Easy on Sunday Morning - QB vs. Pass Rush Matchups

Houston Texans Pass Rush vs. Trevor Lawrence

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has seriously come into his own during his second season, and he’s carrying a strong stretch of play that started back in Week 9 with 16 or more fantasy points in all seven games during that stretch, including four games of 20 or more points. He’s playing behind an offensive line that is tied for the fourth-fewest sacks allowed while having the third-best adjusted sack rate at 4.6 percent. That strong stretch of play looks like it should continue.

The Houston Texans, who are riding high after their victory over the Tennessee Titans last week, are still the worst team in the NFL. They have 35 sacks on the season and an adjusted sack rate of seven percent, but this team has a lot of growing up to do before they’re considered one of the league’s best. In championship week, Lawrence should be considered a strong start in this matchup.

Verdict: Start 'Em

Las Vegas Raiders Pass Rush vs. Brock Purdy

We’re in Week 17 of the NFL season, and I’m recommending San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy for your fantasy championship lineups. If you had told me I would be writing that sentence back in September, I would have laughed in your face. In four games as the team’s primary quarterback, he’s scored 14 or more points in all four games, and he’s accounted for nine touchdowns compared to just two turnovers. His offensive line has also only given up seven sacks of Purdy in that time, with three of them coming in his first game against the Miami Dolphins.

The Las Vegas Raiders have thrown in the towel on their season, no matter how they try to spin it. The benching of Derek Carr is a signal that they plan to trade him this offseason while wanting to improve their draft stock as much as possible in the final two weeks. On defense, they have the third-fewest sacks on the year while being tied for the league’s second-worst adjusted sack rate despite boasting Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones on the edges. Purdy doesn’t have the highest upside this week, but I think he is a strong starter with a high floor.

Verdict: Start ‘Em

Denver Broncos Pass Rush vs. Patrick Mahomes

When you grind fantasy research and work for six straight months, you get to the end of that journey, and you have to start your studs. Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the definition of that. On the year, he has scored 17 or more fantasy points in every single game. He’s scored 30 or more on five separate occasions. His offensive line is third in sacks allowed and fourth in adjusted sack rate. The investments they’ve made in that position group over the last couple of years is greatly paying off.

On the flip side, you have a Denver defense that has been one of the NFL’s best all year long, but the tower has come crashing to Earth as of late. They gave up 51 points a week ago which resulted in the firing of first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and they’re 1-6 in their last seven games. Their 35 sacks on the year has them below league average, and they have nothing left to play for at this point. Mahomes should be as safe as he has been all year.

Verdict: Start 'Em

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