Pass Rush vs. QB Matchups to Target/Avoid (Week 6)

October 13, 2018

Wai Sallas identifies quarterbacks to target and avoid in Week 6 based on the opposing pass rush defense. These QBs could be players to fade and avoid or to start and stream.

In a unprecedented season of historic offensive production, identifying defensive units that apply a consistent pass rush is paramount.

Passing has gone bananas. NFL completions (2,999), completion percentage (65.4), passing yards (32,215), passing touchdowns (228), points scored (3,030) and touchdowns (344) are the highest numbers in NFL history at this point in a season.

There are a bevy of team and individual records that are set to be broken this season. It should only embolden offensive coordinators to open the playbook more and give more opportunity for pressure to reach the quarterback. Here are the best and worst options in Week 6.

Here Comes Trouble

Cincinnati Pass Rush vs. Ben Roethlisberger

Ben Roethlisberger is one of the chief recipients of the new pass-happy NFL. He is one of four quarterbacks on pace to break Peyton Manning's single-season passing yards record of 5,477. The Steelers have thrown the fifth most pass attempts per game.

Due to the sheer volume Roethlisberger drops back, you have to start him at this point, but it also leads to plenty of opportunity for a newly-invigorated Cincinnati defense to come after him. Through four games, the Bengals  have pressured the quarterback 14.7 percent of the time. Pittsburgh has allowed pressure the ninth most at 7.2 percent. Something has to bend.

Verdict: What Else Are You Gonna Do?

Jacksonville Pass Rush vs. Dak Prescott

The Jaguars defense have been unrelenting in their pursuit of the quarterback. On 13.8 percent of quarterback drop backs, the Jaguars have pressured the quarterback. On 18 percent of those pressures they have achieved Sacksonville nirvana and taken down the QB.

Dallas on offense is reeling. They have shown no glimmer of any reliable weapons outside of Ezekiel Elliot. Geoff Swain is now a viable fantasy target over almost every other Dallas Cowboy.

Take into account the Jacksonville pass defense is arguably the best in the league, and it all sounds really bad for the boys in Dallas.

Verdict: Stay Away

Buffalo Pass Rush vs. Deshaun Watson

As terrible as the Bills have started the season, they've put up impressive defensive numbers the last three weeks. Against Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers and Marcus Mariota, the Bills defense have given up just two touchdown passes (one was a garbage TD late in a lopsided win over Minnesota).

A lot of that has to do with a pass rush that puts pressure on the quarterback on 12.6 percent of the opposing team's drop backs. That's good enough for seventh best in the league. Houston's offensive line, on the other hand, is atrocious. The Texans have allowed pressure on 7.5 precent of Watson's drop backs. That's the fifth worst in the league.

Verdict: Look Elsewhere

Easy on Sunday Morning

Tampa Bay Pass Rush vs. Matt Ryan

Fitzmagic is gone, and so too is the hopes and dreams of the Tampa Bay NFL franchise. It was fun while it lasted.

Tampa Bay is causing a measly 8.9 percent pressure on passing snaps, the worst in the league. The Bucs are giving up the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Add to the equation a Flacons offensive line that is one of the best in the league, and don't forget your popcorn to the aerial explosion on Sunday.

Verdict: Fireworks Abound

Washington Pass Rush vs. Cam Newton

It was not too long ago that Washington's pass rush looked like it would be an intimidating group for quarterbacks on a weekly basis. That was three weeks ago.

According to Pro Football Focus, Carolina's offensive line matchup against Washington poses the fifth largest advantageous margin. With Newton's ability to extend plays and Christian McCaffrey's dynamic playmaking ability, it might be a long day for Washington.

Verdict: Yes Please

New York Jets Pass Rush vs Andrew Luck

On the surface this looks like no sense. The Jets defense just dominated a strong Broncos offensive line on its way to a convincing victory. New York has also allowed the 11th fewest fantasy points for opposing quarterbacks. On the other side of the ball, Indianapolis seems to be in a constant state of flux with no stability on the edges or in the trenches.

Despite all of that, Luck has shown a penchant for getting the ball to whatever Colts are dressed up that week. Nyheim Hines has emerged a viable PPR RB2. And Eric Ebron is finally following through on the promise that every fantasy football player has been waiting for since his rookie season.

For as good as the Jets may seem on defense, they only pressure the quarterback on 9.5 percent of their opponents' drop backs, fifth worst. The Colts on the other hand, have somehow been able to keep Luck clean, tied for eighth in pressure rate yielded (6.5 percent).

Verdict: Press Your Luck

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