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Justin Carter breaks down the quarterback rookie class for the 2021 NFL Draft to project their long-term fantasy football values in redraft and dynasty leagues.
The 2021 rookie quarterback class could be one for the ages.
Or, it could be another year where highly-rated prospects wind up struggling to make an impact in the NFL, like the 2018 draft that saw four quarterbacks go in the top 10 but two of whom -- Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen -- have struggled to create a long-term future for themselves.
But whatever happens, it's undeniable that this is an intriguing class. Let's briefly look at what quarterbacks are in it. I've ordered them based on my current real-world rankings of them, not based on how I'd rank them for fantasy since there are still so many mysteries based on where they wind up being drafted.
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Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
There are a lot of questions about how to rank the players in this draft class, but there are no questions about who the QB1 is or about where he's going. Ignore the fact that new Jaguars head coach Urban Meyer has a long-standing connection with the Ohio State Buckeyes. He took this job because it offered a chance to work with a generational talent at quarterback: Trevor Lawrence.
I'm honestly not sure what to really say about Lawrence that hasn't already been said. He's an accurate passer who can make plays with his legs, which is exactly what teams are looking for. But he also seems to have the kind of leadership quality that can't really be defined, that intangible that puts him over the top as a prospect.
Comparing stats straight up from this season to other prospects doesn't really work because of the huge difference in games that each team played plus the fact that Lawrence missed time with COVID-19. Lawrence threw for a career-high 10.2 adjusted yards per attempt. He was ninth in Division I in completion percentage:
While that was behind three of the other top prospects, it was an improvement over his previous seasons.
Lawrence can push the ball downfield. The Jaguars don't have the greatest group of weapons to put around him, but they do have D.J. Chark, who had an off-year in 2020 but is the kind of deep option that Lawrence is going to love playing with.
Justin Fields, Ohio State
Here's where people start to wonder about the order of prospects. Personally, I think anyone who doesn't have Justin Fields as the QB2 in this class is either overthinking things or just has some kind of anti-Fields vendetta because he is the second-best quarterback in this class. He and Lawrence have been the top prospects in this class since high school, and nothing has changed that.
Like Lawrence, Fields has huge upside as a dynamic, multi-dimensional quarterback. He can push the ball down the field and likely offers even more value in terms of read-option plays than Lawrence does. Lawrence scored more rushing touchdowns than Fields over the past two years, but Fields rushed for 1.7 more yards per carry in 2020 than Lawrence did.
The issue that keeps him from being in that super-elite tier and pushes him into the maybe-elite tier is that he did show some turnover issues against good defenses this past season. But that development could have just been a fluke, as he had just three interceptions in 2019.
Overall, I see Fields as closer to Lawrence than he is to any of the players I have ranked below him. I know that might not be the most popular opinion, but if the biggest knock on him is his reliance on his first read -- well, that can be fixed. His talent is off the charts.
Zach Wilson, BYU
I know people are high on Zach Wilson, so please don't take it as a knock on Wilson that I'm ranking him third. I just like Fields more!
Let's start with the good stuff with Wilson. He was second in Division I in completion percentage. Third in yards per attempt. Third in adjusted yards per attempt. Third among quarterbacks in rushing touchdowns, though he played 12 games while Lawrence played 10 and Fields played eight. Lots of good stuff there for Wilson.
But while the first two quarterbacks played in major conferences, Wilson made his impact against smaller schools. BYU didn't face a single team from a Power 5 conference. The best scoring defense they faced was Coastal Carolina, and Wilson had his worst game against them, throwing just one touchdown and an interception and finishing with 240 yards, his worst mark against a Division I opponent.
However, a week later, Wilson faced the second-best defense he would see all year, San Diego State. In that one, he was 26-for-35 with 303 yards and three scores. It was the kind of bounce-back performance that really impresses me.
Wilson has all the tools to be a high-end starting quarterback, but I'm also a little concerned about the fact that he had one big year of production after not playing as well the year before. In 2019, he threw 11 touchdowns to nine interceptions. Is that one-year improvement sustainable? We've seen examples before of players who have one really good year and then flame out in the NFL, even as recently as Dwayne Haskins -- one really good year as a starter after rarely playing his first season.
Trey Lance, North Dakota State
Ahh, an FCS prospect. We don't have the same level of reliable and easily available metrics when it comes to evaluating FCS prospects, so this takes a little more work.
Like the first three prospects, Lance has the ability to be a multi-dimensional quarterback, someone who can generate offense with his legs and his arm.
In 2019, Lance didn't throw a single interception, throwing for 2,786 yards and 28 touchdowns, while also adding 1,100 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. With numbers like those, it makes perfect sense why Lance is a top prospect.
But in 2020, the pandemic meant North Dakota State played one game. It was against Central Arkansas and Lance was 15-for-30 for 149 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception.
This brings me to my biggest knock on Lance: even more than Wilson, we haven't seen him against elite competition. Does he have the potential to be the second-best QB in this class? Yes. But the jump from playing FCS competition to playing NFL competition, especially with essentially a year off in the middle, isn't going to be easy.
Mac Jones, Alabama
Remember when Alabama was decidedly not a quarterback school? When before Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts, the quarterbacks who started in multiple years in the Nick Saban era were A.J. McCarron (still in the NFL, but is a career backup), Greg McElroy, and John Parker Wilson?
Things have changed down in Tuscaloosa. Legit NFL prospects are playing there now.
But when comparing Jones to the other prospects, where he comes up short is with his legs. While the first four prospects have the ability to create when the play breaks down, Jones had 14 rushing yards and a touchdown last season. He's not going to just stand around and get sacked or anything, but Jones won't extend plays.
What Jones has in his favor is accuracy. The Division I leader in completion percentage last year at 77.4 percent, the QB can excel in a quick passing offense, especially one that doesn't emphasize the deep passing game.
Of course, Jones winds up being a little too scheme-dependent. While you can make a solid argument for the first four guys working on any team, it's hard to see Jones becoming a long-term starter if the scheme fit isn't right, or if he's put behind a sub-par offensive line. Still, Jones could have a Derek Carr-type career in the right spot.
Kyle Trask, Florida
The thing I love about Kyle Trask is that he's from Brazoria County, which is the same Texas county where I'm from. B-Co is a weird mix of Houston urban culture and Texas rural culture and also has a strong Cajun culture influence. It's a unique place. I'm very biased here when it comes to Trask, just as I will be next year when D'Eriq King -- who was actually the starting QB over Trask during their time together at Manvel High School -- is in the draft.
Trask has a lot of the same limitations as Jones. He's got the size to make some short runs work, but he won't be much of a running threat. And while he's an accurate passer, he was last of the D-I prospects we're discussing in completion percentage, though he did finish 11th in the country. His deep ball is also a potential question. He just didn't really show that he could consistently make plays down the field.
Overall, Trask is clearly another step behind the others. He's got some good touch on his passes, but arm strength and mobility are both too big of questions. He could still have a solid NFL career, but Trask would need to make a big leap to become a high-end NFL quarterback.
He did make a leap in 2020, so taking another big step forward isn't out of the question.
Other 2021 QB Prospects
The six players listed above are the six players who I could see being taken in the first round, though Trask definitely feels more like a second or third-rounder. But the reality is that there's a good chance someone not among those six names makes an NFL start next season. In 2020, five quarterbacks went in the first two rounds, but injuries led to two quarterbacks taken later in the draft, Jacksonville's Jake Luton and Dallas' Ben DiNucci, starting games. So, here's just a quick list of names to keep an eye on. I'm not going to expand on these names at the moment.
- Sam Ehlinger, Texas
- Jamie Newman, Georgia
- Kellen Mond, Texas A&M
- Ian Book, Notre Dame
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