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Justin Carter looks at the Kansas City Chiefs path back to the Super Bowl. Can the defending champions get to the big game again this postseason?
Last season, the Kansas City Chiefs lifted the Lombardi Trophy, marking the second championship for the franchise since Patrick Mahomes took over at quarterback.
This year's team has a few more holes than Chiefs fans are used to, but they still landed the three-seed in the AFC playoffs, so don't count K.C. out when it comes to winning the championship. To get there though, they've got to get through a potential AFC gauntlet, starting with an incredibly tough first-round meeting with the Miami Dolphins.
Here's the road for the Chiefs to make it back to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in the Patrick Mahomes era.
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Wildcard Round: Beat The Miami Dolphins
First up for Kansas City is the team’s second meeting of the year with the Miami Dolphins.
This year’s Chiefs team didn’t have the same firepower as past Chiefs teams, scoring the fewest points of the Mahomes era. The season featured a lot of dropped passes and one of tight end Travis Kelce’s worst seasons.
And yet, here’s K.C. hosting a first-round playoff game. Patrick Mahomes has never lost one of those in his NFL career; in fact, he's never lost before the AFC Championship Game, though this could be the first time that happens, as the Dolphins have an explosive offense led by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and wide receiver Tyreek Hill. Hill, who started his career with the Chiefs, had 1,799 receiving yards this season.
Miami's struggled against good teams though, going 1-5 against playoff teams. The team had a point differential of -91 in those six games.
These two teams played in Germany back in November, with the Chiefs winning 21-14. Kansas City took a 21-0 lead into the half in that one and while the Dolphins defense held Mahomes in check, the Chiefs defense also held Miami's offense in check. Neither quarterback threw for 200 yards in that game.
Divisional Round: Heading To Buffalo?
If things go chalk and the higher seeds win every first-round game, the Chiefs would be on the road against the Buffalo Bills in the Divisional Round. Buffalo's been hot lately, winning five in a row to right the ship after an uncharacteristically bad start to the season.
Like the Miami game in the Wild Card Round, this would be a rematch, as these teams met back in Week 14. Buffalo was victorious in that one, taking down Kansas City 20-17. The Chiefs defense played relatively well, holding Josh Allen to 233 yards and a touchdown, but the Chiefs just couldn't get things done. The team was without running back Isiah Pacheco in that one, and that absence could be felt in the run game. K.C. just couldn't get anything going on the ground.
Meeting Buffalo in the second round is the most likely scenario for the Chiefs and is also the worst-case scenario. Kansas City's path to the Super Bowl gets really tough if they end up in a shootout with the Bills because Kansas City just might not have the wide receivers to keep up.
However, this game isn't guaranteed to happen. There are two alternative scenarios, both of which require the Bills to lose.
If the Bills and Browns both lose, the Chiefs face the Houston Texans. Houston's a dangerous team, but their pass defense can be exploited and they have a rookie quarterback. Of course, that rookie—C.J. Stroud—has been really good, but you never know what a rookie QB will look like in the postseason.
If the Bills and Texans lose, K.C. gets a matchup with the Browns. Cleveland has the best pass defense in the playoffs, but they also have the most questionable offense of the three teams Kansas City could play in the Divisional Round. Joe Flacco is starting at quarterback for the Browns and while he's played well, Flacco turns 39 years old on Jan. 16. It's hard to trust that in the playoffs.
AFC Championship Game: Lamar Jackson's Waiting
There are two opponents we haven't discussed. One of them is the Pittsburgh Steelers, and there's not much to say there. A Steelers/Chiefs AFC Championship Game would be played in Kansas City and it would require the Steelers to beat the Bills and Ravens to get there. It's hard to imagine that happening. The team has the worst QB situation of all 14 playoff teams and just barely snuck into the postseason by beating a Ravens team that was resting its starters.
That Ravens team is the likelier opponent for the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. Baltimore went 13-4 this season, finishing fourth in points for and first in points against. Lamar Jackson was stellar, throwing 24 touchdown passes and adding five more scores on the ground. Gus Edwards was a beast in the red zone on the ground, while rookie Zay Flowers added an extra dimension to this passing attack.
Defensively, Geno Stone picked off seven passes while Kyle Hamilton added four picks. Justin Madubuike recorded 13 sacks. This defense just beats opponents in so many ways. Jadeveon Clowney had a throwback season. Patrick Queen and Roquan Smith make up one of the most dangerous linebacker groups in the NFL.
This will be a tough one for Kansas City. Someone other than Rashee Rice will need to step up at receiver between now and the AFC Championship Game if the Chiefs expect to get past Baltimore and make a return trip to the Super Bowl. It's not out of the question, but this Ravens team has six wins over playoff teams this season. The Chiefs defense will have to play at the highest possible level and the offense can't afford to have a bunch of Marquez Valdes-Scantling drops.
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