ADP Comparison: Biggest Risers From March To May

With the uncertainty of the start to the 2020 MLB season, numerous players saw their average draft position (ADP) rise from March to May. Sam Chinitz breaks down the biggest fallers and evaluates their fantasy baseball value for a shortened season.

A delayed start to the MLB season has allowed several relatively high-profile MLB players to heal from offseason and spring training injuries, but improved health isn’t the only cause for a rising ADP. Some players have benefited from adjusted roster projections, and some for unclear reasons.

With that in mind, here is a list of the 10 players who have seen their ADPs rise the most over the past month. The bolded players are elaborated on below.

As done with the previous article on ADP fallers, the full table of ADP risers can be found here. If you have any questions about players not elaborated on in this article, feel free to let me know on Twitter @fbb_sc.

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ADP Risers

*May ADP is the ADP from April 1 to May 1. Narrowing the timeline to the last two weeks of April yields only four NFBC drafts, which is not a large enough sample for reliable ADPs. March ADP is the player’s ADP from March 1 to March 31.

Rich Hill (178 ADP Increase)

Hill had been expected to miss the first two months of the regular season after undergoing offseason elbow surgery, but the 40-year-old is now on track to be ready for Opening Day with the start of the season pushed back. Although injuries have plagued Hill over his career, he’s posted an impressive 3.00 ERA over the past four seasons with a 2.45 mark last year.

One of the league’s premier pitchers at generating desirable contact, Hill’s performance tends to be supported by a low average exit velocity (85.9 mph since 2015) and xwOBA (.269), resulting in an xERA that consistently sits well below 3.50 (3.14 last season). Only 17 pitchers allowed an average exit velocity below 86 mph last year; Hill has done it three times in the past five years. 

Soft contact isn’t the only area where Hill excels though. Despite owning a fairly pedestrian swinging-strike rate that tends to sit between 10% and 12%, Hill has posted a strikeout rate north of 25% in every season this decade and posted a 29.8% strikeout rate last year. Below are the pitchers who posted a strikeout rate above 25% and a better than average xwOBA last year (min. 100 IP):

Hill keeps impressive company, and his past performance suggests that he should comfortably post an ERA below 3.50 in 2020. The delayed season has allowed Hill to achieve full health, and that the season is likely to be shortened bodes well for Hill’s injury risk. As a result, Hill’s ADP rise likely hasn’t been far enough, and fantasy owners should be comfortable drafting Hill in the top-225 picks.

Spencer Howard, Philadelphia Phillies (168 ADP Increase)

A spring training that saw neither Nick Pivetta nor Vince Velasquez claim the fifth job in Phillies’ starting rotation has reportedly given Spencer Howard a shot at the major league rotation to start the season. Further working in Howard’s favor is a shortened season. After having never thrown more than 112 innings in a season, Howard is likely to be on an innings limit in 2020 -- a limit that he is unlikely to approach in a shortened season, regardless of his role.

Howard’s impressive minor league performance makes clear why his ADP has risen so significantly in response to his improved chances at a full-season rotation job. Howard posted a 2.03 ERA across three minor league levels last year, culminating with a 2.11 ERA in the AFL. 

A consensus top-50 prospect, Howard boasts an impressive fastball, two quality breaking pitches, and a solid changeup that combined to help fuel his 11.9 K/9 last season. Even given his strong arsenal and the poor spring performances of Velasquez and Pivetta though, Howard appears unlikely to start the year in the major leagues. Manager Joe Girardi seemed pessimistic about Howard’s chances of breaking the season in the starting rotation, maintaining that Howard may still have developmental work to do.

Overall, Howard has the upside to post an ERA below 3.70 this year, but there is significant uncertainty regarding his playing time and development. With that in mind, Howard’s 310 ADP in May appears to be a fair price, as the 23-year-old offers both more risk and more upside than many similarly-priced pitchers. 

Jose Peraza, Boston Red Sox (46 ADP Increase)

Peraza appears to have emerged from spring training as the most likely starting second baseman for the Red Sox, significantly boosting his fantasy value and his ADP. Peraza struggled last year with a .631 OPS, but he’s just a season removed from a .288 batting average and a .742 OPS.

With an average exit velocity that consistently sits below 85 mph (84.7 mph last season), Peraza ranks near the bottom of the league in most power metrics. What Peraza lacks in power though, he makes up for with elite contact skills. Peraza’s 95% z-contact rate would have ranked third among qualified batters last year, while his 70.9% o-contact rate would have ranked among the top 30.

As a result of his impressive contact ability, Peraza’s strikeout rate has never eclipsed 15% (14.4% last year). Despite posting a career-worst in in-play rate last season, Peraza’s 78% mark would have ranked eighth among qualified batters. Peraza’s struggles last season appear to largely be related to luck, as his .272 wOBA was 19 points lower than his xwOBA, and his .268 BABIP was 33 points lower than his career average.

Even a modest BABIP bounceback towards his career average in 2020 would have a significant effect on Peraza’s performance. If Peraza’s BABIP sat at .290 instead of .268 last season, then his batting average would have risen 25 points -- from .239 to .264. That difference in batting average represents the difference between ranking 123rd in the league to 83rd.

A rebound season is likely in store for Peraza, but the 26-year-old doesn’t offer much outside of batting average and stolen bases, and his playing time may be threatened by Michael Chavis. As a result, Peraza seems to be slightly overpriced at his 325 ADP, though he’s a solid pick for fantasy owners in need of batting average and stolen bases late in drafts.

Mauricio Dubón, San Francisco Giants (54 ADP Increase)

Dubón’s ADP rise doesn’t seem to be related to positive news from the past month, but the 25-year-old’s 367 May ADP is a fair price. Effectively a budget Jose Peraza with slightly more upside and more guaranteed playing time, Dubón offers a likely to be solid batting average and stolen base potential late in drafts.

Throughout seven minor league seasons, Dubón struck out at an impressive 12.8% clip, a trend that carried into his 28 major league games from last season when he posted a 17.4% strikeout rate. Dubón was aggressive at the plate in the major leagues last season with a 56.7% swing rate, but his elite 75.2% o-contact rate and solid 89.2% z-contact rate should allow him to maintain a strikeout rate below 21%.

On the basepaths, Dubón stole at least 30 bases in three of his four full minor league seasons. That being said, Dubón’s fairly mediocre 27.3 ft/sec sprint speed from last season is underwhelming and suggests that he’s unlikely to swipe more than 25 bags over a full major league season.

Only two players with a sprint speed below 28 ft/sec stole more than 25 bases last season, and although Dubón could be an outlier, his 3 stolen bases in 28 major league games last year suggests that such a scenario is unlikely. Jose Peraza (28.8 ft/sec sprint speed between 2016-18) is faster than Dubón and stole at least 60 stolen bases in two minor league seasons but has never stolen more than 23 bases in the major leagues.

Dubón’s ability to consistently put the ball in play and potential to steal double-digit bases make him a worthwhile late-round pick for fantasy owners in need of batting average and stolen bases. However, Dubón’s lack of power (84.8 mph average exit velocity, 2.3% barrel rate) limits his production. As a result, Dubón’s should be expected to post a batting average around .270 with around 15 stolen bases and an OPS around .715. That level of production makes Dubón a solid pick after pick 350 and worth reaching for if you desperately need stolen bases.

Hunter Harvey, Baltimore Orioles (63 ADP Increase)

Orioles manager Brandon Hyde said that Harvey had a chance at claiming the team’s full-time closer job in early March, but the team hasn’t provided an update on its closer competition since then. Nevertheless, Harvey has seen his ADP rise dramatically over the past month, jumping more than any other reliever.

Harvey’s primary weapon is a dominant fastball that touches triple-digits and generates whiffs at a high rate. Additionally, Harvey owns a serviceable curveball, though his command can be shaky. Harvey struggled in the minor leagues last season but impressed in a brief major league stint, allowing one run with 11 strikeouts over 6.1 innings.

If Harvey wins the closer job out of the gate and pitches to his potential, then an ERA below 3.00 with 20 saves (proportional to a 162 game season) is an optimistic possibility given his arsenal and his likely to be small sample of 2020 innings. That being said, the Orioles have little reason to push Harvey if the team feels that he still needs to develop, and his projection is subject to significant uncertainty. As a result, Harvey is likely overpriced at his 303 May ADP and should only be drafted as a high risk, high upside pick towards the end of drafts.

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