ADP Comparison: Biggest Fallers from March to May

May 7, 2020

With the uncertainty of the start to the 2020 MLB season, numerous players saw their average draft position (ADP) fall from March to May. Sam Chinitz breaks down the biggest fallers and evaluates their fantasy baseball value for a shortened season.

MLB first announced that its season would be postponed on March 12. Over the past month or so, a plan to resume games has taken several forms, but nothing is set in stone yet.

For now, it appears as though teams will play in a maximum of 100 games in 2020, with the minor league season possibly shortened or canceled. The extended offseason has given players time to recover from injuries and fantasy owners additional time to tweak their draft strategies, resulting in some significant ADP adjustments.

Below are the 20 players who have seen their ADP fall the most between March and May*. The bolded players are elaborated upon in this article.

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ADP Fallers

*May ADP is the ADP from April 1 to May 1. Narrowing the timeline to the last two weeks of April yields only four NFBC drafts, which is not a large enough sample for reliable ADPs. March ADP is the player’s ADP from March 1 to March 31.

Clint Frazier (170.1 ADP difference), Mike Tauchman, NY Yankees (160.69 ADP difference)

With Yankees outfielders Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, and Aaron Hicks all previously expected to start the season on the IL, Frazier and Tauchman were both expected to see at least semi-regular playing time early in the season. An extended offseason has given the injured Yankees time to heal, though, and the team’s outfield depth chart is imposing:

There are still uncertainties regarding Judge’s health, and Hicks may miss the first couple of weeks of the season, but the chances of Frazier and Tauchman receiving regular playing time at any point in 2020 have diminished significantly over the past month. Although both players have understandably slid significantly in drafts, Tachman and Frazier are worth keeping an eye on as the season unfolds.

After slashing .277/.361/.504 last season, in addition to being out of Minor League options, Tauchman is likely ahead of Frazier on the Yankees’ depth chart. Tauchman’s elite plate approach (70.2% z-swing rate, 22.8% o-swing rate) and solid power (88.5 mph average exit velocity) make him one of the best backup outfielders in fantasy baseball.

Although Tauchman will have to compete with Brett Gardner and Miguel Andujar for playing time in a fully healthy outfield, he’s still worth rostering in deep leagues and AL-only leagues. 

With Judge and Hicks both possibilities to start the year on the IL, and with Tauchman being one of the few lefties in a righty-heavy Yankee lineup, he should be able to carve out a decent-sized role for himself in 2020. Fantasy owners shouldn’t expect Tauchman to play in more than 90 games this year (in a projected 162-game season), but with his OPS likely to sit around or above .800, he’s valuable enough to warrant a roster spot in deep leagues.

Concussions have plagued Frazier in his young career, but he’s put together a solid .254/.308/.463 slash line over 123 Major League games. Additionally, Frazier adopted a mechanical adjustment over the offseason and dominated in 12 Spring Training games with a 1.055 OPS.

If Frazier dominates in the Minor Leagues, then a mid-season trade that offers the outfielder regular playing time is likely. In that scenario, Frazier should be a priority pickup on waivers with the potential to post an OPS above .800. Otherwise, a lack of Major League playing time means that Frazier should be left on waivers and should only be considered by daily fantasy players.

Domingo German, New York Yankees (136.73 ADP difference)

German hasn’t fallen completely off of draft boards yet, but there’s little reason to draft the 27-year-old in 2020. German has 63 games left on his domestic violence suspension after serving 18 games last season, and with the 2020 season unlikely to be longer than 100 games, he may not pitch this year. 

German’s best-case scenario is a 100-game season. Assuming he’d need a couple of appearances out of the bullpen to prepare for starting if the Minor League season is shortened or canceled, German is unlikely to start in more than five games this year even with a 100-game season. Even then, the Yankees may opt to keep German in the bullpen. As a result, German should be left on waivers to start the 2020 season.

Michael Pineda, Minnesota Twins (125.16 ADP difference)

Like German, Pineda is slated to miss time with a suspension (banned diuretic) in 2020. Pineda will miss 39 games this season, and a shortened season dampens his fantasy value as a result. Pineda still appears likely to claim a rotation job at some point this year though, and his discounted price offers an opportunity for fantasy owners to get a potential breakout candidate at a low cost.

After struggling to start the 2019 season, Pineda enjoyed an impressive run before being caught using PEDs, compiling a 3.10 ERA over his last 15 starts. Encouragingly, Pineda’s ERA improvements came with a steep drop in xwOBA, largely driven by his slider:

Pineda’s slider improvements were fueled by its ability to induce desirable contact; although its swinging-strike rate (20.38% last year) didn’t rise significantly after the end of May, Pineda’s slider’s average exit velocity dropped from above 90 mph in April and May to below 82 mph over his last two months. A location adjustment can at least partially explain Pineda’s improved slider:

After May, Pineda did a better than usual job of avoiding spots where his slider was dealt the most damage, likely playing a significant role in his overall improvement in productivity. In addition to his slider, Pineda improved his fastball location towards the end of last season. By elevating the pitch more frequently, Pineda saw his fastball’s swinging-strike rate jump from 9.68% in April and May to 15.45% in September.

Overall, Pineda’s location adjustments from last season combined with his decent changeup make him an intriguing pitcher in 2020. Missing 39 games in a shortened season will sting, but Pineda offers the upside to post an ERA below 3.70 and now comes at a steep discount, making him a worthwhile investment late in drafts.

Casey Mize, Detroit Tigers (97.73 ADP difference)

Prospects may take a big hit in value in 2020 with the potential cancellation or shortening of the Minor League season, and Mize is a strong example of the types of prospects who will likely see their fantasy values hurt most this year. Mize is a consensus top-20 prospect entering the 2020 season, but the Tigers have little reason to rush him into the Major Leagues this year, and the 23-year-old may have no chance to dominate in the Minor Leagues and force a Major League call up.

Similarly, young players expected to start the year in the minors like Nate Lowe and Forrest Whitley have seen their ADP fall significantly lately. Non-dynasty fantasy owners should avoid drafting players who would’ve started the year in the Minor Leagues in all but the last few rounds of drafts, and Mize’s steep ADP fall highlights that idea.

Largest changes among Top 350 picks

As you may have noticed, most of the aforementioned players were late-round picks. That makes sense, as early-round players are less likely to be affected by a shortened season since their playing time is effectively guaranteed. 

However, some mid-round players have seen their ADPs fall significantly over the past month. Even if the ADP movement isn’t as steep as players in later rounds, these drops in price are worth looking into as well.

With that in mind, here are the ten players who were top 350 picks in March and have seen the biggest declines in ADP:

Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants (78.3 ADP difference)

Samardzija’s fall is odd in that he hasn’t experienced any significant bad news over the past month, but his 404 May ADP is likely closer to his true value than his 326 March ADP was. Samardzija pitched well last year with a 3.52 ERA over 181.1 innings, but a poor 18.9% strikeout rate (8.8% swinging-strike rate) helped fuel a 4.59 FIP. 

Contact-based ERA estimators liked Samardzija even less last year, as the 35-year-old posted a 4.73 xERA and a 4.92 SIERA. Unsurprisingly, Samardzija posted worse than average hard-hit (37.3%) and barrel (8.4%) rates last year, contributing to a .376 xwOBA on contact.

A low strikeout rate and higher than average xwOBA on contact is a recipe for a high ERA, making it likely that Samardzija benefited from a significant amount of luck in 2019. That sentiment is supported by Samardzija’s uncharacteristically low .242 BABIP and high -.037 xwOBA -- the fourth-highest mark among qualified pitchers.

Based on Samardzija’s past performance, fantasy owners should expect the pitcher to post an ERA above 4.20 this year with a strikeout rate below 20%. As a result, Samardzija shouldn’t be drafted above pick 380 in most leagues, making his April ADP fall understandable.

Kyle Seager, L.A. Dodgers (57.69 ADP difference)

Like Samardzija, Seager hasn’t had any news that should have affected his ADP recently. Unlike Samardzija, Seager appeared to be well-priced in March and now comes at a discount. Hand surgery held Seager to 106 games last season, but the 32-year-old put a disastrous 2018 season behind him with a .789 OPS last year. 

One of the most consistent third basemen in the league, Seager has seen his OPS dip below .750 just twice over his eight full Major League seasons. Except for his z-swing rate, effectively all of Seager’s plate discipline, contact, and power metrics were in line with his career averages, suggesting that another season with an OPS between .750 and .800 is in store in 2020.

Encouragingly, Seager’s z-swing rate sat well above his career-average 65.2% mark at 70.1% last year, making it the second consecutive season that Seager posted a z-swing rate above 70%. Seager’s increased z-swing rate suggests that he should comfortably be able to maintain a strikeout rate below 20% as he has for most of his career, and could help him see a power bump as well.

Seager is one of the safest players available late in drafts, and his April ADP fall makes him a quality value pick at third base. Fantasy owners should expect Seager to once again post an OPS above .750 with a strikeout rate below 20% and draft accordingly.

A.J. Pollock, L.A. Dodgers (50.22 ADP difference)

Joc Pederson was declared fully healthy by the Dodgers in March after dealing with oblique soreness early in Spring Training, likely playing a significant role in Pollock’s ADP slide. With Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger locks to take up most of the playing time in two of the Dodgers’ outfield slots, Pederson’s health likely relegates Pollock to a platoon role this year.

As a result, fantasy owners should expect Pollock to play in fewer than 110 games in 2020 (proportional to a 162-game season), suggesting that his dip in ADP may not have been far enough. Still, Pollock should be a valuable fantasy asset when he does play after posting a .906 OPS against southpaws last season and owning a career .835 OPS against left-handed pitchers.

Additionally, Pollock is still a solid overall hitter, having posted a .334 xwOBA and a 21.6% strikeout rate last season. Pollock’s likely platoon role diminishes his value in full-season leagues to the point that he shouldn’t have an ADP below 400, but the outfielder should be a solid DFS option when he plays.

In the interest of completeness, the full list of players who saw their ADP drop between March and May can be found here. If you have questions about players that I didn't elaborate on in this post, feel free to let me know on Twitter @fbb_sc.

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