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After a wild schedule on Monday, the NHL is back to a normal Tuesday night with an eight-game slate. Six of the teams are on the second night of a back-to-back, meaning we could see some tired skates. Neither the Oilers nor the Maple Leafs are on this slate, which opens up the top stacks list to teams that may not otherwise find their way there. An unusually small number of teams are popping on the Heat Map, so the pool of stacks to choose from is lighter than we’d usually expect, but I’m sure we will add some teams in our Discord as we get closer to lock.
Hockey Week continues at the two major DFS sites, and both have some of their better offerings of the season. DraftKings has five tournaments with an entry fee of $15 or less and a top prize of $1,000 or more, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $20,00. Meanwhile, Fanduel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $5,000 first prize. There is money to be won tonight, so let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. I aim to help you narrow your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Winnipeg Jets (WPG1 - Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, Gabriel Vilardi)
The Jets are an offense that we want to target at home right now. They have scored an average of 2.85 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten home games. Despite this success, there’s a ton of room to grow as their expected goal output was 15% higher. Connor and Vilardi haven’t been playing their best hockey as of late, but Mark Scheifele has 11 goals and assists over his last ten games and is more than capable of willing this line to succeed, especially with Kyle Connor averaging nearly four shots on goal per game. If he gets free around the net, Scheifele will find him.
The Minnesota Wild have been as cold on the road as Winnipeg has been hot at home. The Wild have allowed 3.59 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten road games; the highest number on the slate by nearly half a goal. The defensive pairing of Middleton/Faber is who we want to target, as they allow a lot of possession to opposing offensive units. Their 10.45 high-danger chances allowed per 60 minutes on the road isn’t an obscene number, but it is the highest on the team. Marc-Andre Fleury is in net for Minnesota, and he allowed three goals the last time these two teams faced off in Minnesota.
Nashville Predators (NSH1 - Ryan O’Reilly, Gustav Nyquist, Filip Forsberg)
The only thing that is keeping the Predators from being a “blue” stack on the Heat Map is that Adin Hill is the starting goalie for Vegas and he’s been incredible this year. At some point, he’s going to get got, as the Vegas defense hasn’t quite matched his stellar level of play. The biggest threat to his success is the defensive duo of Pietrangelo/Martinez. Opposing offenses get a lot of possession when facing them, their expected goals allowed per 60 minutes sits at a hefty 3.2 at home, and they allow 13.91 high-danger chances per 60 minutes on home ice. It is asking a lot of a goalie to continue to stand on his head every time that duo is on the ice.
Meanwhile, the Predators are due for some regression of their own offensively, as they’ve scored 20% fewer goals per 60 minutes on the road over their last ten games than expected. This is a team that usually plays very well away from home, where they average over seven DraftKings points per game more than they do at home, making this a great time to jump on them. They will carry no ownership on this slate, which will allow you to run up a leaderboard if Adin Hill regresses at all in net.
Los Angeles Kings (LAK1 - Adrian Kempe, Kevin Fiala, Anze Kopitar)
One of the things that we look to attack in the NHL is the potential for positive offensive regression. The Kings are a prime candidate for that tonight, as they have scored 15% fewer even-strength goals at home over their last ten games than expected, even though their level of production has been strong. That means they are more likely than most teams to have a ceiling game, and that’s something we want in our DFS lineups. This is the Kings’ first home game in ten days, which could give them that little bit of extra juice they need to get over the top.
It doesn’t hurt that Elvis Merzlikins should be the starting goalie for Columbus, as he’s allowed three or more goals in 73% of his starts this year, including six of his last seven. He allows half a goal more per game on the road this year, and in his one start against the Kings earlier this year he allowed four goals. The defensive pairing of Werenski/Boqvist is the most generous on the team, and they’ll be facing off against LA’s top line. This is a great spot for a late-game hammer.
Others in consideration: FLA1, WSH1, NJ2
Top Value Stack of the Night
Dallas Stars (DAL2 - Tyler Seguin, Sam Steel, Mason Marchment)
As a team, the Stars have been great on the road, scoring 3.33 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten games. The second line for the Dallas Stars is playing some of their best hockey of the season right now. Mason Marchment and Tyler Seguin have combined for 23 goals and assists over their last ten games. That is the kind of production that would get my attention from a top line, so to see that from a value line is setting off major alarms.
This line will likely see a large percentage of their ice time matched up against the Rangers’ defensive duo of Fox/Lindgren. They have only allowed 1.32 goals per 60 minutes at home this year, but they cede a ton of possession to their opponents and their expected goals allowed is more than double what they’ve actually given up. The 12.36 high-danger chances per 60 minutes they allow is the highest of the three defensive pairings on the Rangers, and that’s the kind of play that can get a goalie in trouble over time. Given how well the Stars’ second line is playing at the moment, it makes this defensive pairing a prime target for DFS players tonight.
Others in consideration: FLA3, LAK3, NSH3
Top Goalies to Target
Laurent Brossoit (Winnipeg Jets)
We generally don’t like to use goalies on a team that is on the second night of a back-to-back after having to travel, but the Jets played earlier on Monday and the trip from Calgary to Winnipeg isn’t that rough. The Jets are also a vastly different team at home than they are on the road, allowing less than one even-strength goal per 60 minutes over their last ten home games. There’s some regression coming, for sure, but the Minnesota Wild aren’t the kind of offense that is going to scare you too much on the road. They have scored only 2.18 even-strength goals per 60 minutes in their last ten road games, so this is one of the friendlier matchups that Brossoit can face.
He allowed four goals in his last start, but before that, he had gone 11 straight starts without allowing more than three goals. He faced the Wild once this year and allowed only two goals, en route to a score of 15.8 DraftKings points. He has met or exceeded that fantasy point total in six of his last eight starts, making him a strong cash game play tonight with a little bit of GPP upside.
Others in consideration (GPP): Adin Hill, Tristan Jarry, Thatcher Demko, David Rittich
Others in consideration (Cash): Ilya Sorokin, Sergei Bobrovsky
