Predicting The Entire 2024 NCAA Tournament Bracket: Round By Round Predictions

Mike Marteny's 2024 NCAA Tournament and bracket picks, from start to finish. Read his full March Madness predictions, featuring in-depth analysis for each round.

Welcome to the RotoBaller NCAA March Madness 'Full Bracket Prediction'. The 68-team field is officially set, and I hope you were lucky enough to have your favorite school make it. Mine was the "first one out," but shouldn't have been. Virginia should have been the first one out with Indiana State the last one in. You can read about that in a different spot. You're here for last-minute office pool bracket picks!

Before I lead you as the conductor on this journey, let's make one thing clear. Your odds of producing a perfect bracket are 9.2 quintillion to 1. To put that number into perspective, you are just about as likely to have all of these things happen during your lifetime. Want to be president? One in 10 million. Think you are the next great actor? One in 1.5 million. How about winning an Olympic medal? One in 662,000. While this is discouraging news for anyone trying to make history, there are ways to increase your odds if you stick to a perfect strategy. Look at Ronald Reagan. He found a way to achieve two of the three situations mentioned above. If only he were a slightly better swimmer, Reagan could have accomplished the impossible.

There are a few things you should actively be looking into when breaking down your bracket. For starters, Vegas is usually right. That doesn't mean to take all the favorites, but if you start selecting too many underdogs in the opening round -- especially ones that the public bettors have grown an affinity towards, your bracket can be drawing dead before Saturday. Most mid-major dogs follow the same recipe for upsets. You either have to ugly the game up with strong defense and limit possessions, or you have a deep bench and everyone can shoot. There isn't usually an in-between. Princeton, Fairleigh Dickinson, and San Diego State used the first strategy last year. FAU and UConn used the latter.

Editor's Note: Be sure to check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis, including a guide on how to fill out your brackets. Read our March Madness picks, sleepers, busts, and predictions for the East, West, South, and Midwest regions.

East Region First Round 

(1) Connecticut vs. (16) Stetson

No team has repeated as national champion since the Florida Gators in 2006-07. That was 17 years ago. Most of the players in this tournament were still in diapers. UConn may lose, but it won't be here. Pick: Connecticut

(8) Florida Atlantic vs. (9) Northwestern

If you were to peg this as a contrast in styles, you would be right...two years ago. Northwestern averaged 73.7 points per game this season, which is a lot for them even though it still leaves them in the middle of the pack. Boo Buie leads the offensive charge with capable outside shooters like Brooks Barnhizer around him.

That worked against a lot of Big Ten teams, but it might not be against a team like the Owls. FAU is just about the same team that made a Final Four run last year. Guards Johnell Davis and Alijah Martin are two of the better playmakers that you'll see on any team. Vladislav Goldin gives them a big, athletic presence on the interior. FAU is what Northwestern wishes it were. Pick: FAU

(5) San Diego State vs. (12) UAB

If you want more proof that the NCAA wants new teams making a run every year, look no further than the top of the East bracket. All three of the qualifying Final Four teams from last season are not only in this region but at the top of this bracket. Only one can advance. The Aztecs lost Keshad Johnson to Arizona, but Jaedon LeDee emerged as a star on this team. The same lock-down defense is there, but the Aztecs averaged 74.6 points per game. They can score too.

UAB can be an electric team. They can also lose to a team like Southern Miss. Yaxel Lendeborg is a nightmare matchup for LeDee, but the same can be said in reverse. Eric Gaines needs to have his best game for the Blazers to pull the 12-5 upset. I think at least one happens this year, but it won't be here. Pick: SDSU

(4) Auburn vs. (13) Yale

Not only did Auburn get a worse seed than they deserved, this isn't a great draw for them. Yale hung with Kansas at the Phog and hung with Gonzaga in November. Auburn's guard play is a problem, so the Yale triumvirate of Bez Mbeng, John Poulakidas, and August Mahoney may keep this close. Leading scorer Danny Wolf plays up front where Auburn will shut him down. This should be a close game, but I don't think Yale's guards are quite good enough to pull this off. Pick: Auburn

(6) BYU vs. (11) Duquesne

The Dukes are in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since the year I was born (1977). Their good story ends here. There are a few underseeded teams in the region, but the Cougars are the most egregious. Pick: BYU

(3) Illinois vs. (14) Morehead State

The Eagles shoot well from distance, but they aren't a particularly deep team. They'll keep up for a while, but the Illini will eventually wear them out. Pick: Illinois

(7) Washington State vs. (10) Drake

I'm a fan of Washington State. I like the way they play. This is a dangerous team that beat Arizona twice this year. I've got some bad news for you Cougs fans. Drake is two hours away from Omaha. They are the closest team to this host site, which makes this a road game for Washington State. Tucker DeVries might be better than anyone on the Washington State team. Pick: Drake

(2) Iowa State vs. (15) South Dakota State

The selection committee watching Iowa State beat Houston by 28 points

pic.twitter.com/lEc6skhtun

— Paul Gerksss (@PGehrks) March 17, 2024

The Jackrabbits are about the same distance from Omaha as the Cyclones, so this is a true neutral site game. The bad news is that Iowa State is peaking at the right time. Whenever a team beats the top-ranked team in the country by 30 points, I pay attention. Pick: Iowa State

West Region First Round 

(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Wagner

I will make this quick. We have places to be. Wagner only played seven players in the play-in win over Howard, and that's normal. Carolina is going to bury them. Pick: North Carolina

(8) Mississippi State vs. (9) Michigan State

This is one of the more interesting first-round matchups. They are similar teams, but at first glance, the Bulldogs look better almost everywhere, especially up front. This isn't the worst team that Tom Izzo has entered the tournament with. It isn't even the worst seed that he's had. This is a team that doesn't usually bow out early.

For Mississippi State to win this one, they need Josh Hubbard to play like he was before the SEC Tournament. Relying on a freshman come tournament time is a dangerous thing. I'm going with the experience of Tom Izzo and the Spartans. Pick: Michigan State

(5) Saint Mary's vs. (12) Grand Canyon

The Antelopes nearly beat South Carolina before taking down San Diego State in December. The Lopes are 44th in the country in scoring and shoot the ball fairly well. The issue here could be depth. The Antelopes only run about eight players deep.

St. Mary's has been here before and has to deal with a similar Gonzaga team in conference play. The difference is that Grand Canyon has a legit superstar in Tyon Grant-Foster. The Antelopes paced up San Diego State and made them uncomfortable. This is a winnable game if they do can do the same here. This is one of the ones that I'm least confident in, so if your bracket doesn't reward upsets, St. Mary's may be the pick that's right for you. Pick: Grand Canyon

(4) Alabama vs. (13) Charleston

Startling stat for Alabama basketball:

Since Feb. 18, Alabama ranks 240th in the country in adj. defensive efficiency, per BartTorvik. Among NCAA Tournament teams, that ranks ahead of only 15-seed Long Beach State, 16-seed Howard and 16-seed Stetson.

Feb. 18 was last time no…

— Nick Kelly (@_NickKelly) March 20, 2024

Charleston can get out and run. The bad news for them is that Alabama invented getting out and running. Everything Charleston does, the Tide does better. Pick: Alabama

(6) Clemson vs. (11) New Mexico

Clemson finally got into the tournament this year. Their prize is an underseeded New Mexico team from a conference that was arguably better (and definitely better in the middle) than the ACC. New Mexico can handle Clemson's size. With two sons of former NBA players leading the Lobo backcourt (Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr.), their guard play is superior to Clemson's as well. Pick: New Mexico

(3) Baylor vs. (14) Colgate

This is a rough one for the Raiders. They don't score a lot, but they aren't a really solid defensive team either. RayJ Dennis and Ja'Kobe Walter are going to feast for the Bears. Pick: Baylor

(7) Dayton vs. (10) Nevada

Dayton is one of the most dangerous seven seeds in the tournament, but Nevada is underseeded at 10. Nevada scuffled when Kenan Blackshear was out and they were punished for it. Marquette was not when Tyler Kolek was out. All I ask for is a little bit of consistency.

This is really a tough draw for both teams. DaRon Holmes II is the best player in this game, but the Pack was good enough up front against Mountain West towers Jaedon LeDee and Tyson Degenhart. If they can slow down Holmes, Dayton doesn't have the guards to win this. Pick: Dayton, but this is close...

(2) Arizona vs. (15) Long Beach State

The Beach lost 14 games this year and only one was to a tournament team (San Diego State). Hey, they did beat USC. That will have to be the highlight of their season. Pick: Arizona

South Region First Round 

(1) Houston vs. (16) Longwood

I hope the Lancers enjoy their experience. Pick: Houston

(8) Nebraska vs. (9) Texas A&M

"We could care less about any storyline, whatever it is"

"We're not playing the athletic director"#Huskers react to the storyline of playing Texas A&M round one, just over a week after Trev Alberts left Nebraska to become the Aggies AD. @NCNSports pic.twitter.com/iNOt34nLCz

— Jake Bartecki NCN (@bartecki_jake) March 18, 2024

It's games like this that let you know how much of a sense of humor the committee really has. Trev Alberts left Nebraska for Texas A&M just last week. Is this enough to propel the Huskers to their first-ever NCAA Tournament win? Maybe, but they got a tough draw.

The Aggies were firing on all cylinders in the SEC Tournament. We will see two of the country's most feared sharpshooters: Wade Taylor IV and Keisei Tominaga. They call him the Japanese Steph Curry for a reason. Taylor and Tominaga have low floors, but if they both get hot at the same time, it's going to be a hell of a fun day in Memphis! Pick: Texas A&M

(5) Wisconsin vs. (12) James Madison

This is not your usual Wisconsin team that used perimeter shooting and great defense to make deep tournament runs. The deep shooting is still there, but there is no real post presence and they don't defend well anywhere. A good comparison would be Michigan State. Guess who James Madison beat to open the season?

JAMES MADISON HAS STUNNED #4 MICHIGAN STATE IN EAST LANSING, THIS IS COLLEGE BASKETBALL. pic.twitter.com/k9YVWgiMKj

— College Basketball Report (@CBKReport) November 7, 2023

Pick: James Madison

(4) Duke vs. (13) Vermont

As per usual, the Catamounts are a solid team. This Duke team differs a little, but Vermont doesn't have an answer for Kyle Filipowski. Duke has flaws, but they won't be exposed here. Pick: Duke

(6) Texas Tech vs. (11) North Carolina State

Maybe the Pack just needed to play more games every week. Their unlikely run through the ACC Tournament got them in (and likely Virginia). can they continue the hot streak?

This isn't a great draw for the Pack. If they can control the game from the middle, they have a shot. Texas Tech defends well on the perimeter, so relying on DJ Horne isn't a fool-proof plan. NC State is going to need something from Ben Middlebrooks, DJ Burns Jr., and Mohammed Diarra. They haven't had a game yet where all three can put it together. Pick: Texas Tech

(3) Kentucky vs. (14) Oakland

Oakland was going to be one of my mid-major picks, then I saw this draw. Yikes! Kentucky scored at least 85 points in the last six games of the season. Talk about hitting their stride at the right time... Pick: Kentucky

(7) Florida vs. (10) Colorado

The first game might be the toughest of the entire region for the Gators. Despite the loss of Micah Handlogten, I don't see an early exit for Florida. Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon have played enough to pick up the slack. Zyon Pullin and Walter Clayton Jr. (also part of the 2023 Montana State squad) are the wild cards that make this a dangerous team. Boise and Colorado both pose interesting matchups, but I feel like Florida still survives. Pick: Florida

(2) Marquette vs. (15) Western Kentucky

The Hilltoppers are 31st in the country with 80.6 points per game. They also rebound well, but some of that is because they aren't a great shooting team. Marquette also scores a lot of points (60th with 78.3 per game), but they are better shooters. The bad news is that they are 313th in rebounds. That's not all because of the higher shooting percentage. If Marquette comes out sloppy, they could lose this game. It could be a lot closer than they would like.  Pick: Marquette

Midwest Region First Round 

(1) Purdue vs. (16) Grambling

There are very few parallels between Montana State this year and last year. Purdue's addition of Lance Jones gives them a better defender on the perimeter who can also score. As for the 7-foot-5 elephant on the court, we'll get to that later. Pick: Purdue

(8) Utah State vs. (9) TCU

The 2023 Montana State parallels are here. The Aggies hijacked the coach, and two of the best players (Great Osobor and Darius Brown II) followed. The Aggies were terrors in the Mountain West, and the rest is history.

I do feel like TCU is easily overlooked here. Jameer Nelson Jr. leads a trio of guards that both score and defend for the Toadies. Osobor is enough of a handful in the middle that TCU will have problems with him. TCU lost to Nevada, Cincinnati, Clemson, BYU, and Texas...all of whom have big post presences. Pick: Utah State

(5) Gonzaga vs. (12) McNeese

We have seen the good and the bad from Gonzaga this year, but there has been very little bad since the loss to Santa Clara on January 11 (just two losses to the Gaels). They beat Kentucky at Rupp Arena, so saying they could beat anyone isn't much of a stretch.

The hunters are now the hunted. This McNeese team looks similar to some of the double-seeded Gonzaga teams that made runs. Their shooting is off-the-charts good and they can score with anyone. The Cowboys are built to snipe a higher seed, but this isn't a great draw for them. They have to figure out what to do with Graham Ike to win this. That said, if they shoot like they are capable of, this song is making a comeback.

Pick: McNeese

(4) Kansas vs. (13) Samford

As if this draw wasn't bad enough, Kevin McCullar Jr. won't play for the Jayhawks. This has all the makings of an upset pick that it almost feels too obvious. Samford is fifth in points scored with 86, shoots 39.3% from beyond the arc (seventh), and is a very deep team. Kansas only scored 11.9 points per game off the bench this year. It's an early exit for the Jayhawks. Pick: Samford

(6) South Carolina vs. (11) Oregon

The Ducks are another one of those teams that cut through the conference tournament into the NCAAs. Their reward is a really tough South Carolina team. The Gamecocks are going to have problems with the size of N'Faly Dante. B.J. Mack is thick, but Dante is a more athletic version of Jonas Aidoo. The closest comparison in the SEC would be Johni Broome, and we all know how those games turned out. Pick: Oregon

(3) Creighton vs. (14) Akron

It's great that Enrique Freeman will get some national recognition from this game. What's not great is that he matches up with a legit Final Four contender. Pick: Creighton

(7) Texas vs. (10) Colorado State

Am I crazy for thinking that the Rams can topple Texas? The Longhorns are like Virginia with a post presence. Actually...Texas is nothing like Virginia. Texas at least deserves to be in the field. I like Colorado State quite a bit, but I have seen too many NCAA Tournament runs from Max Abmas to count him out. Pick: Texas

(2) Tennessee vs. (15) St. Peter's

This incarnation of the Peacocks bears no resemblance to the one that made a run in 2022. This team is 343rd in the country in scoring with 65.3 points per game. Their unlikely run was through the MAAC.  Pick: Tennessee

East Region Second Round 

(1) Connecticut vs. (8) Florida Atlantic

These teams are similar in a lot of respects. Both have great playmaking guards. UConn's answer to Goldin in Donovan Clingan. If there is a team that could bust UConn before the regional final, it's the Owls. If you look at Connecticut's losses, they really struggled with turnovers in those. I don't think FAU will be able to force them into enough mistakes to move on. Pick: UConn 

(4) Auburn vs. (5) San Diego State

The Aztecs are similar to the South Carolina team that was demolished twice by Auburn. How much will the tournament experience matter? I'm guessing that it's still not enough. Pick: Auburn

(3) Illinois vs. (6) BYU

This is a really tough matchup for Illinois. I was a big fan of Coleman Hawkins coming into the season, but he regressed instead of progressing this year. It felt like he played smaller, which is a bad thing against a BYU front that has strong defenders. These guards hit from all over the court, but the difference will be in the middle. Pick: BYU

(2) Iowa State vs. (10) Drake

These teams used to play almost every year until they started playing it at Wells Fargo Arena in Des Moines instead of Drake's home gym. That made it a "neutral" court. These campuses are only 40 minutes apart, and both are close to Omaha. This place is going to be rocking, similar to the 2015 battle of Kansas in Omaha that saw Fred VanVleet's Shockers send the Jayhawks home.

Tucker DeVries could be that guy for Drake, but I've watched a lot of Iowa State games. This is one of the best defensive teams I've seen in a long time. They are right there with Houston. Drake can't handle that. Pick: Iowa State 

West Region Second Round 

(1) North Carolina vs. (9) Michigan State

Don't mind me. I'm just here for the RJ Davis vs. Tyson Walker show. Davis has by far the better team around him. If this was based solely on talent, the Tar Heels would win this whole thing. It's not though. I've seen the Heels have too many lapses this year to think they can win it all. Still, I have a hard time believing that Michigan State is that much better just because of Tom Izzo. Pick: North Carolina

(4) Alabama vs. (5) St. Mary's

Alabama averages a ridiculous 90.8 points per game, the most in the country. Teams have had success slowing Alabama down, but only if the Tide can't hit threes. I'm not sure the Gaels are strong enough on the outside to get this done. Pick: Alabama

(3) Baylor vs. (11) New Mexico

This is another solid matchup for New Mexico. Baylor doesn't have the big names on the inside like New Mexico does with JT Toppin, but Jalen Bridges is a problem and Yves Missi has been mentioned as a lottery pick. Baylor has six players that average double figures in scoring. That kind of production is hard to slow down and almost impossible to stop. The Lobos should put up a fight here, but this isn't a great draw for them. Pick: Baylor

(2) Arizona vs. (7) Dayton

Dayton's guard play makes me nervous. Koby Brea and Kobe Elvis are capable scorers, but the Flyers don't have a good distributor. That's what could hold them back against a team like Arizona. The Flyers beat St. John's, almost beat Northwestern, and hung with Houston early in the season.

However, I mention the last 10 all the time because it is important how a team is playing coming into the tournament, even if the committee doesn't think so. The Flyers are 6-4 over the last 10 games. The A-10 isn't that tough. Pick: Arizona (begrudgingly)

South Region Second Round 

(1) Houston vs. (9) Texas A&M

If Nebraska is the team that advances, that's a team that could really give Houston problems. A&M is a sloppy team on offense and that just won't fly here. The Aggies aren't consistent enough from the outside to drop a team like this. Pick: Houston

(4) Duke vs. (12) James Madison

Duke vs. the Dukes is good for marketing, but not much else. James Madison doesn't have the size to deal with Filipowski and can't handle the driving ability of the guards. Pick: Duke

(3) Kentucky vs. (6) Texas Tech

I like the Red Raiders, but they aren't equipped to throw a wrench into this Kentucky team. The Wildcats are a really deep team and all of them can score. Pick: Kentucky

(2) Marquette vs. (7) Florida

Marquette handled Kansas in Maui and most of us were surprised because Hunter Dickinson was supposed to be the best player on the team. He clearly was not, and that was when we realized it. Marquette has trouble with teams who can score outside and have size in the middle. That's Florida. The Gators match up very well with Marquette. Pick: Florida

Midwest Region Second Round 

(1) Purdue vs. (8) Utah State

It's another early exit for Purdue. If this game is called normally (as in not by the Big Ten), Zach Edey won't get away with half of what he usually does. The Aggies have a good inside/outside game revolving around Darius Brown II and Great Osobor.

just happy Zach Edey is alive after this foul pic.twitter.com/QkEDUyDcua

— Liam (@Blutman27) March 16, 2024

The officiating is a bigger deal for Purdue than any other team in the field. It has been for the last two years as well, and we know how that ended. The same thing is going to happen here. Lance Jones helps out a lot, but unless the guards can carry the team -- or Zach Edey learns to adapt his game -- it's another early bedtime for Purdue. Pick: Utah State

(12) McNeese vs. (13) Samford

Pot, meet kettle. These teams are very similar, which is why I have them both scoring massive upsets in the first round. Both teams score a lot of points, shoot the ball well, and rebound. The slight edge here goes to the Bulldogs because they run 10 or more players per game. Pick: Samford

(3) Creighton vs. (11) Oregon

This is the game that we didn't know we needed. Creighton and Oregon met a year after Dana Altman bolted Creighton for the left coast and he really didn't want to come back to Omaha. Altman won't have to face the Jays in Omaha this time, but he still has ties to the city. The fans still have ties to him. The difference is that Creighton is better this year than any of the teams Altman was able to put together. Pick: Creighton

(2) Tennessee vs. (7) Texas

This is a winnable game for Texas, especially if Dalton Knecht goes cold. The Vols have had trouble surviving when he doesn't carry their offense. Again, this is where the Max (Abmas) factor could come into play again. Can we trust him to run through the tournament with a different team when he has been hit-and-miss with Texas all season long? Or do we trust Dalton Knecht, also a transfer, to carry the Tennessee offense? Pick: Tennessee

Sweet Sixteen

(1) Connecticut vs. (4) Auburn

Auburn is the kind of team that can give Connecticut some trouble, but I don't think their guard play is good enough to pull the upset. The metrics love Auburn, but the optics aren't great. If the Tigers can't dominate the interior, they will have issues. It's why they struggled against Mississippi State and Florida. The Tigers beat both of them in their SEC tournament run, so an upset is possible. I just don't think it's likely. Pick: UConn

(2) Iowa State vs. (6) BYU

We have a barometer for this meeting. Iowa State won by five in Ames and lost by 15 in Provo. However, the Cyclones went 14-3 after that loss in Provo in the toughest league in the country. BYU went 9-7 after that win. It's fair to say that the Cyclones are a different team now and will take the rubber match. Pick: Iowa State

(1) North Carolina vs. (4) Alabama

This makes me nervous because they are both capable of losing early. If this matchup comes to fruition, it will be similar to the UConn and Tennessee games for Carolina. They beat Tennessee and lost to Connecticut.  I give the edge to Alabama because they don't have that head-scratching loss. Carolina has three of them. Pick: Alabama

(2) Arizona vs. (3) Baylor

Jalen Bridges and Yves Missi can handle Oumar Ballo. That's why Wazzu beat Arizona twice. They have the forwards to deal with Ballo. Baylor's perimeter defense will be tested here. Their guards are playing better than Arizona's, but Caleb Love is a game-changer. If he gets hot and stays hot, Arizona is a championship team. That's a big if. Pick: Baylor

(1) Houston vs. (4) Duke 

This is where Duke gets caught. Even without Joseph Tugler, Houston is far superior in the frontcourt. Jamal Shead and L.J. Cryer can score with the best. Complete beats incomplete. Pick: Houston

(3) Kentucky vs. (7) Florida

Kentucky beat the Gators in Gainesville by two and lost to them by three at home. This promises to be another one of those good games. Both teams are playing their best basketball right now. Kentucky is averaging 85 points per game since the loss to LSU and Florida scored 207 points on Alabama in March. This is a winnable game for Florida, but how long will Thomas Haugh and Alex Condon hold up without Micah Handlogten? Eventually, that has to catch up with the Gators. This feels like eventually. Pick: Kentucky

(8) Utah State vs. (13) Samford

For the record, I thought last year was the most wide-open tournament in many years and I picked my brackets accordingly. I picked one region to get decimated (the Midwest). That was the only one that kind of held up. Seeds 1, 2, 3, and 5 made the Sweet Sixteen. So even though I picked upsets, not all of them came to fruition.

This is the Cinderella bracket this year. Can you blame me? Purdue has a habit of bowing out early, Kansas is hobbled, and Gonzaga can be really good or really bad. If this matchup happens, it will be a lot of fun. Utah State is also a deep team. Their size up front will also be a problem for the Bulldogs. Their miracle run ends, but another keeps going. Pick: Utah State

(2) Tennessee vs. (3) Creighton

Who doesn't want to see a three-point shooting contest between Baylor Scheierman and Dalton Knecht? Or a frontcourt battle between Ryan Kalkbrenner and Jonas Aidoo. It feels like Creighton has finally checked all of the boxes on what their team should be. They aren't over-reliant on threes anymore and have a legitimate inside presence. The Jays aren't that strong defensively, but with the way they score, they don't need to be. Pick: Creighton

Elite Eight

(1) Connecticut vs. (2) Iowa State

I know. Chalk donkey. This is the bracket where you want to do that. UConn got a rough draw, but they are maybe the only team equipped to handle it. This matchup would provide a plethora of bad matchups for UConn. Could Donovan Clingan do enough to take advantage of the lack of size for Iowa State? Can the Iowa State guards score enough? If the game stays in the high 60s, absolutely. Pick: Iowa State

(3) Baylor vs. (4) Alabama

The Tide squandered their one-seed last year with a loss to San Diego State in the regional semifinals. Brandon Miller, Jahvon Quinerly, and Chuck Bediako are gone, but Alabama might be a more complete team this year. Complete enough to take them into unchartered waters as far as Alabama basketball is concerned.  Pick: Alabama

(1) Houston vs. (3) Kentucky

Kentucky is the best three-point shooting team in the country and Houston is the best team in the country in nearly every defensive metric. The epic clash of contrasting teams usually produces a great game. In most cases, it's the defensive team that dictates the pace and takes over the game. The difference is that this year, Houston's offense is good enough to score in the 80s if they have to. Pick: Houston

(3) Creighton vs. (8) Utah State

Creighton has the benefit of being in one of the easier brackets. If Utah State (or someone else) wrecks the top of the bracket as expected, this Elite Eight matchup will be the easiest for the Jays and we'll have two first-timers in the Final Four. Pick: Creighton

Final Four

(2) Iowa State vs. (4) Alabama

I've seen enough of Iowa State to know that if they get paced up, they're done for. However, Alabama is a whirling dervish on offense. It makes for exciting basketball, but it also leads to giant turnover numbers. That's the one thing you can't do against Iowa State. Can Alabama beat the Cyclones? Sure, but they would have to take care of the ball to do it. I simply can't count on that. Pick: Iowa State

(1) Houston vs. (3) Creighton

This is what happens when you create continuity in a program, and it's why I would pick FAU to make a deep run if they didn't draw UConn. Houston and Creighton are veteran teams that have played together for a couple of years at least. They added a couple of key pieces (Cryer for Houston and Steven Ashworth for the Jays), but the core is mostly intact.

This is where I feel like Houston's flaw catches up with them. This is the first spot where Houston will really miss Joseph Tugler. In Creighton's big win over Connecticut -- the first win over a number one team in school history -- Creighton got hot early and never looked back. They won't be able to do that to Houston. Creighton had a similar opponent to Houston in Colorado State and they didn't play well at all. That was in December. Are they enough better now? Pick: Houston

National Title Game

(2) Iowa State vs. (1) Houston

Could we really have a fourth meeting between these two defensive stalwarts for all the marbles? Probably not. If defense really did win championships, The Aztecs or Houston would have won last year. If this does happen for the fourth time, I think we could count on another great game, but I also feel like Houston would draw even.

They have been here before. The Cougars have six Final Four appearances, the last coming in 2021. They haven't cut down the nets yet. That would change this year. A run like this through the tournament would be tougher on Iowa State than Houston. You know the Cougars are still salty from that beatdown in the Big 12 title game. This would be the sweetest revenge, and Kelvin Sampson would finally get his ring. Pick: Houston

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