X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Power Risers & Fallers for Week 5 - Buy or Sell?

Ozzie Albies - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Home run risers and fallers for Week 5 of fantasy baseball. Nate Green evaluates power increases or decreases, and players who could be buy or sell candidates.

Welcome to this week's Power Hitting Risers & Fallers. All stats are full season through Monday, April 29th (unless otherwise noted). Several "on pace" numbers just use 6x as a shortcut (one month done, five to go).

Your weekly reminders: When a Statcast ranking is mentioned, a minimum of 25 plate appearances is needed to rank in Statcast figures; 321 players now have that many. And EVAB (pronounced ee-vab or ev-ab) is simply exit velocity on "air balls" - meaning fly balls and line drives, as shown on Statcast.

And now it's time for Week 5 in power hitting.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Power Risers

Christian Walker (1B, ARI)

Walker entered this season with six career home runs in 99 plate appearances spread over four seasons. In 2019, he has seven homers in 109 plate appearances. In a sense, he's not showing significantly more power than before, given the similar HR/PA rate. But in another sense he is, given the first regular playing time he's ever received. Can Walker keep it up with pitchers getting a consistent book on him night-in and night-out for the first time?

Of course, Statcast doesn't tell us what will happen after adjustments are made by pitchers and/or hitters. But Walker's Statcast numbers are legit. He's barreled up 13 balls already, tied with six other players for 10th in MLB; he ranks 15th at a 11.9% rate. A 99.2 mph EVAB ranks eighth and his 94.8 overall exit velocity rates fifth, which is good news with his 14.5 degree launch angle.

Walker's plate discipline, 31 strikeouts vs. 11 walks, is a bit wanting, but a slight improvement over his 40-8 ratio entering this season. That said, the biggest threat to Walker may be pitchers starting to take advantage of that, because the Statcast numbers indicate a player extremely capable of crushing baseballs. The sky is Walker's limit, although the plate discipline pushes down a bit on his ability to reach for that sky. But the power is real, and it's spectacular.

 

Ozzie Albies (2B, ATL)

Albies, who had nine home runs last April and ended the season with 24, has six homers so far in 2019. It's another hot month, but is this year's April Albies more sustainable than last year's?

Not particularly, at this rate, except for the fact that he's "only" on roughly a 36-home run pace instead of 54. Albies EVAB this year is 91.9 mph, just a couple ticks above the 91.7 he posted across all of 2018. While his overall exit velocity is up from 86.3 to 88.3 mph, his launch angle has fallen slightly from 15.5 to 12.8 degrees. On the bright side, his barrel rate is up from 3.7% to 6.3%.

Overall, it's a very similar profile to last season's full Statcast numbers. A rerun of 24 home runs feels about right here.

 

Max Kepler (OF, MIN)

Kepler has never posted a wRC+ better than 97 or had more than 20 home runs despite long being considered a potential breakout candidate. With seven homers and a 130 wRC+ so far in 2019, the Kepler breakout might be here.

Kepler has consistently raised his launch angle a few degrees every year since 2015, starting out at 2.8 that season, reaching 16.2 degrees last year and up to 17.1 degrees so far this season. That's a quite good trend, and now his barrel rate and exit velocity are trending up as well, at 7.1% and 91.7 mph, which would both be career highs. The expected rate stats have followed, a .520 xSLG and .371 xwOBA, also career high rates, and close to his .552 and .374 actual marks.

The seven home runs isn't terribly inconsistent with all of this. He probably won't hit 42 with a 94.7 EVAB, but he ought to hit more than 20 for the first time, and could challenge 30. Congrats if you believed.

 

Yandy Diaz (1B, TB)

Diaz was a solid hitter in 120 plate appearances for the Indians last year, posting a .312/.375/.422 slash line, but only had one home run. He is already at seven in 2019 as his slugging rate has jumped to .596. What is going on?

From last year, Diaz's exit velocity has fallen slightly (91.2 instead of 92.1), as has his already-low launch angle (3.9 vs. 4.4). His EVAB, however, has climbed from 93.6 mph last season to 98.4 mph this season, a solid bump. Because of this, his barrel rate is also up, from 3.3% last year to 7.0% this season. His eight total barrels matches what he did in 2017-18 combined.

Diaz needs to get that launch angle up to continue flashing strong power, but he hasn't shown an ability yet to approach double-digit degrees. If he continues to hit his flies and liners at 98-plus, he'll get some bombs those times that he does elevate, so last year's pace of a lone homer in 120 PA is unlikely to return. However, barring an adjustment, we've already seen the best power Diaz will offer all year.

 

Eric Sogard (SS/2B, TOR)

In just 10 games and 47 plate appearances, Sogard has already tied his career high with three home runs. At 47 plate appearances, analyzing Sogard uses the same sample size as most of the Week 2 players: not a lot.

Sogard has only barreled up one baseball this season. He's hitting it just 85 mph on average, and even his balls in the air are leaving at a very modest 89.8 mph. The 85 mph and 17.1 degree launch angle would be career highs, but do not add up to close to the 49-home run pace that three bombs in 10 games represents.

Sogard has a decent .474 xSLG, but that's nothing like his .732 actual SLG. The same goes for a .383 xwOBA and .507 wOBA. Matched to his .333 xBA, Sogard's xSLG would create a .141 ISO. Given Sogard's history, however, it's much easier to believe his mediocre exit velocity than his expected rate stats.

There's a chance for a few more homers here, but nowhere near what Sogard has shown early in 2019. Also likely to go cold and lose whatever PA he's gaining from his early power surge, bank on him easily well short of 10 dongs at year's end.

 

Power Fallers

Carlos Santana (1B, CLE)

Santana has hit at least 18 home runs every full season of his career, and 24 last year, but so far in 2019 only has two bombs in 26 games, a 12-homer pace. He hasn't lost any of his plate discipline skills, hitting .300/.422/.422, but whither the power?

Santana's main power problem is relatively obvious: a launch angle of 4.7 degrees. He's never been lower than 12.3 since Statcast began in 2015, and last year at 15.1 degrees was a career high. It's a shame, because Santana is squandering an early 94.7 mph exit velocity, when he's never been above 90.7 mph before. Santana's got a 95.1 EVAB this season, but it doesn't matter with so few flies and liners.

Santana's fate is unclear, but the relationship between his Statcast and his outcomes is not. He could raise his launch angle and keep the velocity, which could give him power he's yet to show in the Majors. He could revert to his pre-2019 state in both exit velocity and launch angle, which would be a positive adjustment for power purposes. (Although in both of these cases, his full season numbers would suffer due to the slow April.) He could keep going like he has and risk as low as single-digit home runs in 2019. Worst case would be reverting to his pre-19 exit velocities while continuing to hit the ball uncomfortably close to the ground.

The safest bet is probably for Santana to adjust back to where he has been historically. (Unless he's intentionally going against league-wide trends and trying to hit singles; his BABIP of .231 last season and .266 career mark are up to .357, after all.) But until he does so, the home runs will likely continue to only trickle through.

(Note: It always seems like one falling player homers on the day before this article comes out. On April 30, it was Santana. Still...get that launch angle up, Carlos.)

 

Manny Machado (3B, SD)

Machado had four home runs after April 12. He still has four home runs. While some players would kill for four home runs in a month, it's a bit disappointing for someone who's hit 35, 37, 33, and 37 home runs in the past four seasons.

Machado has deserved his power struggles by Statcast's figuring, mainly on account of a .354 xSLG. The 9.9 degree launch angle is also 4.5 degrees lower than his mark last season. His 90.7 mph exit velocity is right in line with his 90.8 career mark, however. A 5.2% barrel rate and 94.0 EVAB are lower than last season's 8.5% and 95.1 mph, but they don't set off deafeningly ringing alarm bells.

Like Santana, it's most tempting to bank on this being a blip that will correct with larger sample, given the consistent track record, acceptability of the exit velocities, and the four homers he did hit in the first couple weeks of the season. It would still behoove Machado to get back to his typical 13-14 degree launch angle, but if he does, another 30 homers can happen.

 

Yuli Gurriel (1B, HOU)

Gurriel's never been a massive power hitter, with a combined 31 bombs in 1,137 plate appearances from 2017-18. Still, his single home run in 113 plate appearances this season is concerning, especially for someone who is nearly 35 years old. Often rostered for his .287 career average, even that is only .240 this year.

Gurriel is working on the highest launch angle and best walk rate of his career. But as his exit velocity has fallen to 88.2 mph and 89.3 mph on flies and liners, he's only posted one barrel. Without exit velocity, the higher launches aren't getting out, and it's killing that batting average in addition to resulting in even less power than before.

Don't expect much from the aging Gurriel, especially in the power department. After going from 18 home runs in 2017 to 13 in 2018, he'll likely stay stuck in single figures this year unless something unforeseen happens. And if he doesn't fix the batting average, that puts him in real trouble.

 

Jeimer Candelario (3B, DET)

By Statcast, Candelario is almost the same hitter this year as last year, but after hitting 19 home runs last season, he's one of seven qualified MLB hitters (out of 191 overall) still working on a 2019 goose egg in the home run column. Nonetheless, he's essentially in line with his 2018 Statcast performance (87.4 mph vs. 87.1), with a couple extra degrees of launch angle (17.6 degrees, up from 15.3).

Still, Candelario's modest .224/.317/.393 line last season was an over-performance based on a .203 xBA and .345 xSLG. This season the xSLG is .338. It's pretty clear by now that Candelario's small sample 2017 (.330/.406/.468 in 106 PA) was a fluke, but even then he had a .403 xSLG.

The 19 homers Candelario had last season will probably not happen again. Like Gurriel, without more oomph in his exit velocity, Candelario could be looking at single figure homers in 2019.

 

Brandon Crawford (SS, SF)

Crawford is another member of this year's qualified 0-homer club. Like Candelario, his relevance is limited to deeper, AL/NL-type leagues, and like Candelario, that is unlikely to change for Crawford based on Statcast. Crawford homered 14 times in each of the past two seasons, doing so with launch angles of 11.4 and 11.1 degrees. This year, he's only hitting the ball at 6.3 degrees. His .328 xSLG continues a streak of decline every year since 2015. Crawford has one lone barrel, just like Gurriel.

One piece of good news for Crawford is that when he does elevate this season, he's hitting it 94.6 mph. As with Santana, however, the elevation is too rare to matter. Plus, it is out of line with Crawford's 90.6 EVAB last year and his 92.1 the year before that.

Crawford is now 32, and he won't be shut out of the home run column forever. But here's yet another player for whom teens power last season will be single-digits this year barring an adjustment of which his capability is questionable.

 

Last Week's Risers

Player Last Week Update
Joc Pederson .111/.200/.222, 0 HR; continued regression coming?
Eddie Rosario .143/.217/.476 but 2 more HR
Marcell Ozuna Still afire after .318/.400/.636 and 2 HR
Hunter Dozier No more HR but .467/.529/.733 line anyway
Mitch Moreland W/24 PA and just two K, .050/.167/.050 line seems SSS fluke

 

Last Week's Fallers

Player Last Week Update
Travis Shaw Struck out 8/20 times but hit .222/.300/.611 and 2 HR
Rafael Devers Still homerless but .409/.500/.500 has season wRC+ at 107
Kris Bryant .227/.379/.591 and 2 HR makes bounce-back odds seem good
Nicholas Castellanos Much like Bryant at .280/.357/.560 w/2 HR
Jesus Aguilar Two HR 4/29 and another on 4/30; is he back?

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF