November 4, 2023

Which Big 10 teams in NCAA Men's College Basketball are most likely to win the conference and make a run for the National Title? Ranking Big 10 College Basketball for the upcoming season.

Leaves falling from the trees and a cool autumn breeze in the air can only mean one thing: college basketball is right around the corner. With perfect Big 10 weather in the Midwest, what better time to power rank all Big 10 basketball teams heading into the 2023-24 season?

While this isn't the most competitive hoops conference in the country, several teams have the makeup of potential Final Four finishers if they're able to press past some struggle points from previous seasons.

Since the overall conference depth isn't great, I prefer to break these teams into tiers, starting with the bottom of the barrel.

Tier 4

14. Minnesota (+15000)

The Gophers finished last year at the bottom of the Big 10 standings, and I wouldn't be surprised to find them in a similar position within a few months. A poor offensive team didn't improve much this offseason, losing one of their best scorers to Ohio State while filling the guard slots with mid-major transfers.

Mike Mitchell Jr. from Pepperdine can shoot the rock, but I don't know if he or Elijah Hawkins will be able to create enough off the dribble with an undersized backcourt. Their strength lies at the forward position, led by All-Big 10 talent Dawson Garcia. However, this is a conference littered with solid big men where you need good guard play to excel, and I don't foresee enough from this bunch to make any noise.

13. Michigan (+2000)

This Michigan team is much less talented than we're used to. With the departures of Hunter Dickinson, Jett Howard, and Kobe Bufkin, along with losing transfer Caleb Love, there is a clear talent void that's going to be hard to replace. Although point guard Dug McDaniel is one of two returning starters, they were inconsistent and struggled to generate offense for the players around them.

Alabama transfer Nimari Burnett should provide a spark, but Juwan Howard's team will go through a few growing pains trying to find their identity throughout the year. We just don't know who's going to be their go-to scorer and generate offense, obviously an important part of the game.

12. Penn State (+5000)

Listen, I like Mike Rhoades. Anyone who takes an interest in college basketball can respect the job he did at VCU, turning them into one of the best mid-major programs and a first or second-round threat every March. However, this Penn State roster is returning zero starters with their slots being filled mainly by mid-major transfers looking to find an identity.

Coach Rhoades did bring point guard Ace Baldwin and wing Nick Kern from the Rams, with Baldwin arguably being the most impactful transfer in the conference. Consistently having his teams as one of the highest-rated defensive teams by KenPom, I'd expect a similar havoc-creating scheme for the Nittany Lions. They have the athletes to cause turnovers and get easy baskets in transition, but they'll be searching for an offensive identity for quite some time.

Due to the havoc, this roster will go through plenty of high and low points throughout the season but really need a second and third scorer to step up if they want to be considered in Tier 3 of the Big 10.

11. Iowa (+3000)

Iowa Iowa Iowa. This feels like the same story again and again. A team that, on any given night, can be one of the most efficient teams in the country with the ball in their hands. Their shortcoming, like years past, will be on the defensive end. Returning starters Tony Perkins, Payton Sandfort, and Patrick McCaffery in the backcourt will be able to space the floor while the two transfer post players are looking to fill major roles while stepping up in class from MVC competition.

They'll move the ball well, score plenty of points, and play spoiler a few times throughout the season. But you can't be regarded as one of the best, or even a mid-level team in this conference with such poor defensive production. Especially when you don't have a superstar like Luka Garza or Kris Murray to carry you through tough times.

10. Nebraska (+6000)

Maybe due to a hot finish last season, but I have the Huskers ranked a little higher than most. Keisei Tominaga finished on a tear last season, averaging over 20 points per game down the stretch. Charlotte transfer Brice Williams has been rumored to score in bunches this preseason and should be a nice complimentary piece.

Fellow transfer Reink Mast should be a decent post scorer but isn't a dominating force. Nebraska has wings to compete with almost every team in the Big 10, but badly needs a point guard to step up and become a creator in this offense. Scoring, ball movement, and spacing have to come from somewhere. They'll likely struggle with the top talent in this league, but I wouldn't be shocked to see a couple of nice home wins and upsets as the season wears on.

9. Rutgers (+3000)

Rutgers was a phenomenal defensive team last year, finishing 6th in KenPom's adjusted defensive ranking. With Center Cliff Omoruyi and lockdown wing Mawot Mag returning, they should once again be a force on the defensive side of the ball. Noah Fernandes, the UMass transfer, is looking to fill some pretty big shoes and might be the only true outside shooter in their starting five, which is where the problem lies.

Without another scorer and confident ball-handler, the Scarlet Knights will once again be a force on one side of the court but look lost on the other. Without a go-to half-court offense, you can only rely on turnovers and transition baskets so much until the possessions start to drag on. Unlike a few lower-rated teams on this list, they do have the athleticism to hang around in games due to that defensive prowess.

Tier 3

8. Northwestern (+4000)

Tier three is where the competitive, borderline NCAA Tournament teams lie. And that begins with Northwestern. One of the perennial worst teams in the conference surprised most last season, finishing third before falling to #2 seed UCLA in the second round. Led by point guard Boo Buie, the Wildcats return their aggressive backcourt and post player Matthew Nicholson.

Yes, they overachieved last season, but we know that guards win in March. Buie and his sidekick, Ty Berry, can both handle the ball under pressure and get to the cup while facilitating for teammates. Ryan Langborg, the Princeton transfer, adds some much-needed shooting but will struggle to fill Chase Audige's role as a two-way player. I could see them making another tournament appearance, but their lack of depth knocks them down a peg below some of the more solidified rosters.

7. Indiana (+800)

The Hoosiers are in the "possibly frisky" tier. Guards Xavier Johnson and Trey Galloway are solid, maybe even second-weekend good with the right matchup, but not elite elite. Their forwards are long and good defenders but will struggle to space the floor or score when given one-on-one opportunities down low.

The X-factor here is freshman Mackenzie Mgbako, one of the nation's top recruits. This dude can flat-out play and is an NBA talent. Given the lack of easy baskets on the floor, their offense should be inconsistent with a high ceiling. If Mgbako shapes up to be a true lottery pick talent, he just might be able to carry this roster to a tournament bid and multiple wins.

6. Ohio State (+1400)

I actually kind of like how Chris Holtmann rebuilt the Buckeye roster heading into the 2023 season. In years past, OSU teams just could not shoot or spread the floor. Outside of [maybe] one guy, there was little shot creation. Enter Jamison Battle, the Minnesota transfer, who can play the four while scoring at all three levels.

Fellow wing Roddy Gayle should also take the next step and cement himself as a premiere shooter. With Bruce Thornton and Dale Bonner holding down the backcourt, I'm not too concerned with ball handling and turnover issues, more so curious if either is going to become a true threat penetrating off the dribble.

One wildcard for this team is the potential of Zed Key coming off the bench, replaced with the 7-footer Okpara in the starting lineup. Key has reshaped his body in hopes of becoming a versatile threat on both ends of the floor. It's likely their ceiling is lower than Indiana's, but can be more consistent on a night-to-night basis.

5. Wisconsin (+900)

Wisconsin returns all five starters from a year ago and is looking to slide back into the NCAA Tournament after missing out the previous season. If you remember this team at all, very little has changed. Chucky Hepburn, Connor Essegian, and Max Klesmit are all decent guards who can shoot but lack that extra oomph.

St. John's transfer AJ Storr hopes to provide some transition opportunities but could lack defensive ability. Forward Tyler Wahl was banged up last season, which showed by his dip in offensive efficiency. A healthier Wahl and Steven Crowl down low will bring back a similar Badger team to the previous few years, where they were knocked out in the second round of the big dance.

Tier 2

4. Illinois (+700)

Tier two consists of teams that maybe can make a Final Four run but are more likely to be second-weekend teams with upside. Illinois is led by Terrance Shannon who's able to carry a team for stretches or even games at a time. Forwards Luke Goode and Marcus Domask, the SIU transfer, can threaten defenses from behind the arc.

The main position holding me back is Ty Rogers at point guard. He's not the best shooter and can be prone to turnover issues. This is the kind of team that thrives off the energy from the crowd, but I just don't know if they'll be able to shoot and defend well enough to make a run in March.

3. Maryland (+900)

Now, the Terrapins, on the other hand, just might have a roster good enough for the Final Four. PG Jahmir Young played above his skis last year, but he might just be one of the league's best guards in all phases. DeShawn Harris-Smith is another top recruit with extreme athleticism who could shape up to be an excellent Big Ten wing.

In the frontcourt, Donta Scott and Julian Reese are solid all-around big men who can run, score when called upon, and protect on defense. Kevin Willard's team will look to create havoc using athleticism to their advantage. These types of teams often have ups and downs throughout the regular season, but they can use their length and athleticism to be a nightmare in a tournament setting on short notice.

Tier 1

2. Purdue (+200)

Yeah yeah, Purdue should be number one, and we'll get to why I have them at two. I must say, however, that Zach Edey can be so dominant that nothing that follows may matter. At the collegiate level, he is massive and has worked hard to improve his scoring output. He's the preseason favorite to win the Naismith Award and will once again finish with gaudy scoring and rebounding numbers.

The downfall of this Boilermaker roster is that their guards cannot handle pressure until proven otherwise. Nearly every loss last season was due to a team playing in-your-face defense and forcing turnovers while limiting Edey's ability to impact the game. Think of Maryland, or even the sixteen seed Fairleigh Dickinson, who pulled one of the biggest upsets in NCAA history doing just that last season. Now, Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer are a year older, and Matt Painter did add SIU transfer Lance Jones to the mix, but I still don't believe they can beat a particular play style.

Outside of Edey, the whole roster is built to space the floor and shoot the ball, which they're good at. When allowed to play their half-court game, there are only a handful of teams around the country talented enough to stop Edey while closing out on shooters. But if a team plays 40 minutes of havoc, we could have a different story. Performing in March is all that matters for Coach Painter's Boilermakers, and GUARDS WIN IN MARCH.

1. Michigan State (+280)

Speaking of guards in March, Tom Izzo's bunch is as talented as it gets. Tyson Walker is an elite shooter alongside Jaden Akins, who is a scorer in all phases. Point guard AJ Hoggard is probably the best of the bunch, with the ability to defend, attack the rim, or shoot from the outside. These three guards, along with a handful of killer freshmen, could be one of the best groups of guards in all of college basketball.

I'm hesitant to compare them to the 2020-21 Baylor National Title team, but I do get a fuzzy feeling thinking about the two. Although they have great guard play, their frontcourt leaves something to be desired. Malik Hall, Izzo's new voodoo doll, is a good floor-spacing forward who does it all. Paired with Sissoko, neither has a great offensive post presence, but they will crash the offensive glass like crazy and be stout on defense.

As for Big Ten season-long bets, I don't love any team at the current numbers. MSU and Purdue are rightfully favored, followed by a combination of Tier two and Tier three teams. I also believe that Illinois and Maryland are the only other teams with a chance for the National Title, but I have not taken a position on either team due to a lack of consistency and question marks in their roster.

My favorite national champion from this bunch is Michigan State, due to the reasons listed above. However, the current betting odds of 15-1 is not valuable. I prefer to wait and see if we can catch the Spartans in a tough stretch and collect a number closer to 25-1 down the line.

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