Points League Waiver Wire Pickups - Week 2

July 26, 2020

RotoBaller's Nicklaus Gaut finds pickups and adds for points leagues for week 2 of the 2020 fantasy baseball season, identifying waiver-wire targets and starting pitchers to stream.

There is no getting around that playing head-to-head points with weekly matchups is a difficult proposition in a 60-game season. There are only 10 weeks to play so that makes for a regular-season made up of just five or six matchups. Obviously, that will be a roller coaster of insanity for any leagues keeping the status quo in 2020. Other leagues are handling the short season in different ways, including doing multiple matchups per week, switching from head-to-head to total points, or using rotisserie scoring for the season. Some leagues are probably packing it in, too. But you're not!

Drafts may be over but there are still important moves to make because the world has changed you drafted your team. New players, new injuries, and new values. There's plenty of time to make trade offers and hit the wire, taking advantage of league-mates that haven't properly adjusted their evaluations. And in a season where any player could appear on a vague IL at any time, the waiver wire is going to be the best friend of those who can persevere and win in the end.

With that in mind, I'll be doing a weekly roundup of point league happenings, with waiver-wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo, CBS, and Fantrax. Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform, so we'll make sure to highlight where players are the best and worst fit at.

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Playing For Points Through a Pandemic

While the number of games has changed, the way points are scored on each platform has not. You must account for, as precisely as possible, how a player performs under your particular scoring system. Don't be fooled into believing you can just make rough adjustments in your head, bumping up guys with high on-base percentages and low strikeout-rates. Every point, in every category, counts. For example, ESPN and Fantrax are virtually identical in their scoring for hitters and roster size. The only difference is that stolen bases are worth one more point on Fantrax and ESPN subtracts one point per strikeout. That' the difference over Ronald Acuna Jr. being a top-five batter versus a top-25 batter.

If your league uses standard settings, then great! Turn to page 94 and you can skip ahead to the leaderboards. If you play with custom settings, it'll still be fine. Go back to page 43 and look below at the scoring systems of the four major platforms. If you look them over, I bet there's a chance that you'll find that your league's scoring is very similar to one of the four (well, not Yahoo's), even if it's not the platform you actually play on. For example, my home league started on a now-defunct platform before moving first to ESPN and now at Fantrax. But our scoring is basically ESPN standard with a handful of minor adjustments.

If you look above, you'll likely find a suitable mirror to your own system. While every point counts, as long as they aren't seismic changes you can get away with some "close enough". IE. If everything is the same except for HBP (or something similar), you're probably fine.

Before we get to some waiver-wire pickups, let's use the final ATC projections to project out the point leaderboards with each platform's standard scoring system, along with what each player ranks at that position (starters, relievers, position players). As the season gets going, these leaderboards will change structure to track total points for each platform, as well as the all-important Pts/PA. The projected and in-season leaderboards are useful for better evaluating how your roster players fit in your scoring systems, as well as possible trade targets. But we'll also go position by position, looking at just players rostered in a lower amount of leagues.

Point Leaderboards

Starting Pitchers (2020 ATC Projections)

Relievers (2020 ATC Projections)

Hitters (2020 ATC Projections)

Infielders

Brian Anderson, 3B/OF (Rostered: Yahoo 25%)

Anderson is a classic example of a player slipping through the rostered-rate cracks on a platform. You're obviously not likely to find him on most wires but Anderson is only 25%-rostered on Yahoo. Ridiculous. Partially because of his boring profile and partially because of where he plays, Anderson is underrated in just about every format. In fact, not only is Anderson the least-rostered on Yahoo but that's the platform where he scores the best!

Even if you can't grab Anderson off the wire, he's the type of trade target that I love in points. For example, upgrading another position by disaggregation via trading a third baseman with a bigger name for Anderson and your upgrade. Let's compare the projected hitter rank of Justin Turner (above 90% rostered on every platform) to boring old Mr. Anderson:

When you understand how players (even the boring ones) perform in your particular scoring system, it can unlock all-new pockets of market-inefficiencies. Winning players exploit them every chance they get.

Cesar Hernandez, 2B (Rostered: Yahoo 45%, ESPN 45%)

He's a bargain in roto and is even more so in points, getting on base a ton and striking out very little. Hernadez will also be leading off for a potent Cleveland offense, followed by Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, and Franmil Reyes. Render unto Cesar piles of plate-appearances, runs, and RBI.

How well-suited is Hernandez to the different platforms? He has an average platform ranking of 101.6, being immediately preceded at second base by Jonathan Villar and DJ LeMahieu. Here are the projected points for all three players on the four different platforms, along with their average ADP:

Given his team, lineup position, and skills, I don't expect Hernandez to make many appearances on this list. He's going to get snapped up fast and you should grab him before he does.

Kyle Seager, 3B (Rostered: Yahoo 5%, ESPN 25%)

While we were talking about the underrated Brian Anderson, somewhere Corey's big brother was seething. Only 25%-rostered on ESPN and 5%(!) on Yahoo? Silliness. While nothing in the above projection is exciting, Kyle Seager has the baseball skills that are suited for points play, posting a solid walk-rate and below-average K-rate. He also plays...And plays, and plays, and plays. Seager only managed 106 games in 2019 but played in at least 154 games in the previous seven seasons.

He should pile up enough plate-appearances to compete with his more talented peers batting further down in the order. Here are the third basemen ranked above and below Seager in average platform ranking:

Seager is on a Mariners team that's going nowhere in 2020 but he's locked into batting third and has zero competition that will press him for time. Put that together with his durability track record and you end up with a steady player who will play most of the season's games while batting in a fantasy-friendly spot in the order. Sign me up.

Outfielders

David Peralta, OF (Rostered: ESPN 35%)

Peralta's rostered rate is only a travesty on ESPN, rostered in 66% of Yahoo leagues and 94% on Fantrax. His profile fits with every platform, though, with Peralta's hitter ranking only having a spread between #89 - #98. And this is another case of points-irony, with Peralta being rostered the least on the platform where he ranks highest.

He also doesn't do it just through plate-appearance accumulation, for those worried about his value heavily depending on how many games he plays. Peralta's point-per-PA scoring rates track favorably compared to his higher-rostered peers, especially on platforms that carry a strikeout penalty. His 0.56 Pts/PA on ESPN is the same as Jorge Soler and higher than Joey Gallo and Adam Eaton. And on CBS, Peralta's projected 0.66 Pts/PA is higher Luis Robert, Oscar Mercado, and Danny Santana.

Teoscar Hernandez, OF (Rostered: Yahoo 4%, ESPN 10%, Fantrax 61%)

The 10% rostered rate on ESPN is totally justified, given their full-point penalty for strikeouts and Hernandez's love of striking out (career 31.8% K-rate). He's projected as just the 178th hitter on ESPN but Hernandez is actually quite useful on Yahoo and Fantrax, even though you have a better chance of restoring him on the former platform.

ATC projects Hernandez to be the 107th-hitter on Yahoo and 110th on Fantrax but 10 HR is probably more of a floor if he gets full-time at-bats. Because the power is for real; Hernandez hit 26 HR in 464 PA in 2019, with a 91.2 mph average EV and 41.5% Hard%. He might whiff a lot but definitely doesn't get cheated when he actually connects. While he is batting near the bottom of the Jays order, that could change if Rowdy Tellez or Travis Shaw struggles early.

Pitchers

Alex Wood, SP (Rostered: 30% Yahoo, 25% ESPN)

Those roster rates are pretty criminal and if Wood is available in your league you should hurry and snatch him up before he inevitably gets hurt. Because that's really the only issue with Wood, as the 29-year-old leftie hasn't pitched more than 152 innings since 2015. But when he's healthy, he's pretty solid, posting ERAs in the mid-3.00's and strikeout-rates in the mid-20s. Plus, he has a rotation spot locked up on one of baseball's best teams. That's never a bad thing. Grab him now and reap the benefits until ship him back to the wire following some sort of strain.

Chris Bassitt, SP  (Rostered: Yahoo 15%, ESPN 9%, Fantrax 61%)

Bassitt had himself a mini-breakout in 2019, posting a 3.81 ERA and 1.19 WHIP over 144 innings, with 10 wins and 141 strikeouts. However, that didn't get anyone excited in draft season, and with a path to the rotations blocked by Jesus Luzardo and A.J. Puk, Bassitt hovered around a 400 ADP and being drafted in only the deepest of leagues. But Luzardo and Puk were both sidelined (Luzardo with COVID issues and Puk with an ominous-sounding shoulder strain) Bassitt finds himself as Oakland's number-four starter.

He's not giving you anything that exciting but he does bring the steadiness I'm craving in this short season. Bassitt rarely got rocked last season, allowing more than three earned runs in only four of his 25 starts. After comments he made earlier in summer camp, there are worries that Bassitt won't be able to go deep into games his first times through the rotation. However, his start to the season isn't overly difficult on paper, starting with an Angels team that's likely to be without Anthony Rendon, before taking on a Mariners team that's likely to be without much offense. Grab him now because Bassitt will likely be a very popular streaming pick and one who might not make it back to the wire soon.

Brandon Kintzler, RP (Rostered: Yahoo 44%, ESPN 18%)

I know he plays for the lowly Marlins but Kintzler does currently have Miami's closing job. That means he should probably be rostered, even if the save chances are few and far between. But don't be surprised if the Marlins end up being one of this year's scrappy losers; just good enough to stick around for close games. Kintzler won't get a lot of strikeouts, although his 21.1% K-rate in 2019 was his highest mark in seven seasons.

Pablo Lopez, SP (Rostered: Yahoo 5%, ESPN 15%)

Elieser Hernandez, SP (Rostered: Yahoo 1%, ESPN 1%, Fantrax 25%)

Why end an article with two Marlins when you can end with three? Let's double up on Miami starters, as Lopez and Hernandez are in similar boats. Neither pitcher is anything special but both have two-start weeks coming up and one of those starts is against the even lowlier Baltimore Orioles.  The Marlins also are at their pitching-haven home stadium all week, welcoming the Nationals into town after the Orioles fly back north.

You might want to hold off on starting the duo against the defending champs (although, the lineup is obviously weaker without the presence of Juan Soto) but matchups against Baltimore are too juicy to resist. With only 10 weeks to play, every streamer must be considered. And I'm usually going to consider anyone that faces the Orioles.

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