July 2, 2016

Pierre Camus takes a gif-inspired journey into the 2016 season of Will Harris and analyzes why he is a sudden revelation at the closer position for fantasy owners.

Will Harris is the next Dennis Eckersley. Actually, Eckersley had a decent career as a starter before turning into a dominant closer at age 32. But you get the idea. Harris's sudden emergence has been quite the surprise. If you saw this coming, maybe you should be playing the stock market instead of fantasy sports. Harris will turn 32 before this season ends and has never been a closer in his Major League career, with only two saves in the previous four seasons.

Harris didn't break into the bigs until he was 27 and his minor league career wasn't overly remarkable. He was solid in 2015, his first year with the Astros, posting a 5-5 relief record with 13 holds and a 1.90 ERA. But he also had four blown saves while only converting two. With Ken Giles coming in as the prized free agent closer, Harris was signing a one-year deal for the league minimum and was destined for a setup role at best. Now, he naturally has the lowest ERA among all Major League closers (Fernando Rodney will likely be a setup man in Miami) and hasn't blown a save in seven chances. Why is Harris suddenly looking unhittable? Is this just a fluky streak or is it sustainable?

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A Deeper Dive

The biggest thing that stands out about Harris' numbers this year is his home run rate. Currently, it is a somewhat respectable 0.00 HR/9. That's right - so far, in 33.2 IP he hasn't given up a single bomb. Big deal, right? Orel Hershiser went 59 innings without giving up a single run, much less a home run. But, when you consider that Wade Davis is the only other closer with a clean sheet in the homer category, you have to realize that we're now putting Harris in the same category as Wade Davis. This is nothing new, as Harris has a career 0.75 HR/9 and posted three different minor league seasons without allowing a HR. OK, he only pitched one inning in 2009 so that's a little misleading, but it still looks good on the stat line. He is inducing a 2.33 GB/FB rate with a 27% FB%. His 62.9% GB% is fifth among AL relievers. All good signs for a fireman.

When looking at a closer, strikeouts always join the discussion. You don't just want someone who can get three outs, you want someone who can keep runners from reaching base without leaving it in the hands of the defense. Harris has a 9.09 K/9 this season, comparable with his career rate of 9.22. This may not be dominant, but it keeps him in the conversation. Harris has a FIP of 1.66 and his 2.50 SIERA is good for ninth in the AL among all relief pitchers. His xFIP of 2.86 is actually better than Craig Kimbrel.

Unlike most closers, Harris does not rely on his fastball. He only throws it two-thirds of the time - 67.2%. It is interesting to note that his fastball rate has declined from 80.5% his first year in Colorado and it seems to be more effective as he uses it less. His fastball classifies as a cutter, so despite not having tremendous velocity (92 MPH on average), he is getting good movement on it.

His other pitch is a curve that he throws 32.8% of the time. He relies on a secondary pitch more than most closers. By comparison, Aroldis Chapman throws his secondary pitch, a slider, 15% of the time. Zach Britton's FB rate is up to 90%, as he rarely deviates from his go-to pitch. Harris is compensating for the lack of ability to throw 100 MPH by mixing in the curve a third of the time.

Will Harris has surprised the Astros just as much as fantasy owners this season. While many view Harris as a placeholder until Giles suddenly figures things out or are expecting him to suddenly come down to Earth and cede the job to someone else, this may not be the case. Harris does not have the typical closer pedigree, but he is getting the job done consistently and dominantly. As the Astros fight to make the playoffs, Harris will be an important asset in their bullpen. For fantasy owners down the stretch, he might just do the same.

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