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Players Sending Out Warning Signals Heading Into NFL Week 3

With the way this season is going, soon there won't even be enough healthy players to analyze on a weekly basis for Warning Signals. As I mentioned last week, the purpose of this piece is to hone in on players that are making fantasy owners nervous as the year progresses. We'll revisit the folks who appeared on week one's list at the end but I should also reemphasize that players dealing with injuries typically won't end up being listed here. It's bad enough we have to worry about whether or not they'll actually take the field, no sense in adding extra stress by evaluating their play when they're at less than a hundred percent.

If you're still new to this weekly writeup, the goal here is twofold. Depending on the player in question, my role is to either talk you off the ledge or tell you to hit the panic button. Since we're only entering week three, patience tends to win out over panic but that certainly doesn't mean you shouldn't be legitimately concerned about a few players. In fact, there's one running back in particular who is certainly sending the panic-o-meter into a frenzy. That's what we call a tease, folks.

Editor's Note: Be sure to check out FantasyAces DFS contests. New users that sign up on Fantasy Aces and make a $20 deposit will receive RotoBaller's full season NFL Premium Pass for free (including Premium DFS), normally a $59.99 value. Expert DFS research, sample lineups, matchup ratings and lots more!

Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.

 

Heed the Warning Signs

Once again, the rule of thumb for a player appearing in Warning Signals is that they can't be added to the list more than three times. Occasionally a player will get a pass if there are additional circumstances surrounding his performance. An injury, suspension, or trade, for example, would open him back up to additional analysis. Beyond that, players are what they are after a certain point so it's best to keep the names fresh.

Todd Gurley - (RB, LA)

Right off the bat we have our first repeat offender of the 2016 season in Todd Gurley. If you read last week's piece, you'd recall that I wasn't too thrilled at the prospect of Gurley having a breakout game against Seattle in week two. In fact, I actually pointed out that his big games should be coming this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and in week five against the Buffalo Bills. I'm still standing firm on that stance so don't freak out over two bad games just yet.

The reason Gurley is appearing on the main list and not the "updates from last week" section is because I think it's a realistic possibility Gurley doesn't return his draft day value. Gurley was locked in as a top five fantasy pick heading into the season and with the way his year is headed, it's going to be extremely difficult for you to end up with top five value come December. This is a bad offense, plain and simple. Yes, they did just beat the Seahawks but they've only amassed nine points through two games, and are dead last in every single other offensive stat. It's going to be an up and down year for Gurley yet even with that in mind, I still believe in him as a legit RB1 given how dire the rest of position is these days.

Eddie Lacy - (RB, GB)

Remember when Eddie Lacy was called fat as a rookie? Remember when those concerns were put to rest after two productive years in a row? Remember when he went back to being fat in 2015? Remember when he supposedly started doing P90X this past offseason was back to being skinny? All of that talk about his weight is utter garbage. Fat, skinny, back to being fat, then back to being skinny...it's all pre-season gibberish coaches and reporters yammer about when they have nothing else to talk about in June and July.

I bring that up because we (myself included, I'm not an innocent party in this by any means) were all fooled by the expected bounce back year for Eddie Lacy. In reality, Lacy is still struggling to run the ball in an offense that isn't nearly as potent as it once was. He has 111 total yards through two games and isn't being featured in the passing game at all. Barring him hopping in a DeLoreon at 88 MPH, the days of him as an RB1 are long behind us. That being said, it's not like he was being drafted super high. The hope was that you'd get a high-end RB2/low-end RB1 at great value but instead you're getting a guy who has less rushing yards than Fozzy Whittaker. Lacy should be viewed as a low-end RB2, perhaps even a flex play, going forward. Sure, the upside is there, just don't expect that to materialize the way it once did in his first two years in the league.

Randall Cobb - (WR, GB)

For our third player this week look no further than Eddie Lacy's wide receiver teammate Randall Cobb. The bounce back bandwagon wasn't just limited to Lacy this summer, it was the entire Packers offense that was expected to return to prominence. Instead, Green Bay's offensive line looks deplorable and the entire team is suffering because of it.

The pre-season hype for Cobb was directly related to the return of Jordy Nelson. The hope was that Cobb shines better as a WR2 than a WR1 but it's hard for anyone to shine at all when Aaron Rodgers is running for his life behind the line. I'm not ready to give up on the Packers offense just yet as they still possess one of the most talented offensive rosters in the league but as it currently stands, Cobb is no longer a must start. If you happen to have Stefon Diggs, for example, it might be better to roll with a player who is actually producing while you wait for the Packers to sort things out. It should also be noted that Green Bay has yet to play a home game thus far so it could easily be a case of a poor schedule out of the gate. Besides, their loss on Sunday night was to a Vikings team who was opening a new stadium of their own. Not exactly a matchup where you're expecting the Pack to light the world on fire.

Coby Fleener - (TE, NO)

Here we have our first tight end mention of the season with New Orleans' Coby Fleener. Fleener was stuck splitting time with Dwayne Allen back in Indianapolis, so switching teams to the Saints was supposed to open him up for a rock solid year as a TE1. Throw in the fact that Drew Brees has always fed his tight ends with high volume and it makes it that much more concerning as to why Fleener isn't producing yet.

Fleener had one catch on four targets in week 1 and followed that up with two receptions on eight looks the following week. I suppose you can say "hey, he's doubling his output each week!" but that'd be some pretty poor analysis. The good news is, however, that his target total is trending in the right direction. Obviously, the bad news is that he isn't doing much with said targets. Luckily, the Saints have two great matchups coming up with the Falcons and Chargers in weeks 3 and 4. Personally, I can't see myself starting Fleener if someone like Dennis Pitta is hanging around on the waiver wire. That's just it though, you have to see what other options are available to you in your league before you take Fleener out of your lineup. Don't just blindly leave him in as your starter or drop him out of frustration. This is a case-by-case basis; some owners will be able to find a better fill in while we wait for Fleener to come around while others won't have that luxury.

Gary Barnidge - (TE, CLE)

How about that, two tight ends in week 2. If there was ever a silver lining to a player getting hurt in week 1, it was that Josh McCown coming in for Robert Griffin III would be a godsend for Gary Barnidge. Fast forward to the following week and McCown goes down with an injury of his own, leaving Cleveland with draft reach Cody Kessler under center.

Technically speaking Barnidge did benefit from McCown in week 2 as he improved from a whopping zero catches to hauling in four receptions for 37 yards. The Browns claim they want to get him more involved against the Dolphins on Sunday and there's always the old adage of "a tight end is a rookie quarterback's best friend" to lean on but I'm still skeptical that this is going to work out for the better. There are just way too many factors working against Barnidge for this to break right for him.

Cleveland's head coach Hue Jackson has always been a run first guy and with Isaiah Crowell playing well there's no reason not to lean on him some more with a rookie playing QB. Just last week ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Cody Kessler was nowhere near NFL ready despite having to start in week 3. Lastly, the Browns can say whatever they want when it comes to wanting to get Barnidge more involved, but that would mean that the quarterback has to actually get him the ball with some consistency. I'm benching Barnidge and taking my chances on anyone I can find in free agency. Give me the aforementioned Pitta, give me Jesse James, give me anyone not in a Browns uniform.

 

Updates From Last Week

Dez Bryant (WR, DAL) and Tyrod Taylor (QB, BUF)

I'm lumping these two players together because their respective stat lines bought them some time even if the concerns are still lingering. Dez Bryant hauled in seven receptions for 102 yards while Tyrod Taylor threw for 297 yards and three touchdowns. I'm less concerned about Bryant going forward since it's clear that rookie QB Dak Prescott can productively run this offense. Throw in a tasty matchup against the Bears in week three and Dez should be fine for the foreseeable future. Taylor might have put up some nice fantasy numbers but anyone who watched this game will tell you that he just flat out looked bad to the eye test. I'm concerned regression is coming but for now he's at least bought himself a week or two.

Devonta Freeman (RB, ATL)

The Atlanta backfield is going to continue being a timeshare between Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. I decided to put Freeman in the updates section rather than the main list because I don't really have anything else to add at the moment. This is a team that is going to share the ball between their two backs and Freeman looks like the RB least likely to return his draft day value right now. Call me crazy but I'm actually only giving Freeman one strike instead of the usual three. I'll revisit this situation if/when I'm proven wrong.

Adrian Peterson (RB, MIN)

Oof, no need to worry about AP any more. It appears "All Day" is essentially done for the season after suffering a torn meniscus in week 2. He's opted to have surgery that'll sideline him for 3-4 months, leaving the door open for a return in the NFL playoffs. Don't burn a roster spot holding onto him in hopes of a miraculous comeback.

 




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