4
weeks
agoRyan
Blaney
took
a
major
hit
to
his
playoff
hopes
by
finishing
eight
laps
down
in
the
32nd
position
during
Sunday's
South
Point
400
at
Las
Vegas
Motor
Speedway.
Starting
the
race
from
the
37th
and
final
position,
Blaney
was
prepared
for
a
long
day
in
a
backup
read more...
4
weeks
agoFor
the
second
year
in
a
row,
Christopher
Bell
fell
short
of
victory
by
placing
second
at
the
end
of
Sunday's
South
Point
400
at
Las
Vegas
Motor
Speedway.
Beginning
the
race
from
the
pole
position,
Bell
quickly
established
himself
as
the
dominant
driver
of
the
day.
In
read more...
4 weeks agoZane Smith's future remains up in the air even though he has been substantially better in the second half of this season than the first. This trend seems to have continued today as his 14th-place qualifying run is tied for his second best this season, and it wouldn't be surprising if he finished better than that since he has finished better than he started in the last eight races. The Spire Motorsports cars are definitely fast here as all of them qualified in the top 16 and Corey LaJoie had at the time one of his best career runs before his crash in the March race. Even though Smith's March result was not good and he never won here in the Craftsman Truck Series either, Smith seems desperately eager to prove himself more than most other drivers on the hotseat. Don't be surprised if he contends for a top ten.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 weeks agoAlthough Ryan Preece has had a pretty terrible season, teams in the garage remain interested in him and he looks poised to move to RFK Racing in 2025. Since he is expected to be driving for a better Ford team next year as opposed to his teammates Josh Berry and Noah Gragson (who are arguably moving to worse ones) or Chase Briscoe (who left Ford entirely), Ford may have more invested in him for the remainder of the season than the other Stewart-Haas Racing drivers. However, that definitely didn't show up in qualifying as he only qualified 32nd and was slower than all other Ford drivers who posted a time except for the Rick Ware Racing cars. Although he has finished better than he qualified in his last three Las Vegas races with this car, he's never finished better than 23rd there for SHR. Expect more of the same today.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 weeks agoMichael McDowell has been a consistent qualifier at Las Vegas and has now qualified between 12th and 18th in his last five starts, including 15th for Sunday's race. However, this is absolutely one of his worst tracks, as he has never finished better than 17th or posted an average running position of better than 18th. Obviously, for most of McDowell's career, his cars weren't competitive at all, and then in the years from 2021 onward where his cars were more competitive, the Fords typically didn't have great speed at flat intermediates and his specialties are typically drafting tracks and road courses. Furthermore, he is a lame-duck driver since he is driving for Spire Motorsports next year. Since Spire has faster cars at Las Vegas, he might need to wait until then to have a good run there.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 weeks agoAfter Joey Logano earned an unexpected playoff bid after Alex Bowman's disqualification at the Charlotte roval, Logano looks to extend his bizarre streak of making the Championship Round of the NASCAR playoffs for the sixth consecutive even-numbered year. Although he seems significantly slower than all the other playoff drivers, Las Vegas really suits him. He has won there three times including with this car in the 2022 fall race and he has a better average finish here (9.9) than any of the other tracks where he has won three times. He also won the pole in the spring race although eventual winner Kyle Larson passed him for the lead on lap 3. He also starts 10th, which indicates that he should contend, although five of the other playoff drivers outqualified him and they've all been faster all season, so Logano's odds of winning seem remote.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 weeks agoCorey LaJoie has had decent moments at Las Vegas with four top-20 finishes, and he had one of his strongest runs of his career to date with an average running position of 13th in the March race, even though he eventually crashed near the end. But he probably won't run nearly as well this time. LaJoie now has a better crew chief but slower cars at Rick Ware Racing than he had at Spire Motorsports, and the Fords in general have lacked speed on flat intermediates lately, so naturally the worst Ford team won't be very competitive. As a result, LaJoie only qualified 35th for Sunday's race, and even in the March race, his predecessor Justin Haley finished 27th. As talented as Chris Lawson is, he won't likely overcome RWR's speed deficit here.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 weeks agoJimmie Johnson used to be great at Las Vegas with four wins from 2005 to 2010, most notably the 2006 event where he led only the final lap after passing Matt Kenseth on a green-white-checkered restart. However, he has not been competitive anywhere with the Next Gen car and Legacy Motor Club hasn't been much better. He starts 29th today and considering he finished either 28th or 29th in four of the five races he finished, you can probably figure on him getting a similar finish today if he doesn't crash. Since his average running position has never been better than 28th this season, even a top 20 would be a big stretch.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 weeks agoAfter failing to advance to the Round of 8 in the NASCAR Xfinity Series playoffs, Shane van Gisbergen had the worst finish of his Xfinity Series career after a fuel-pump failure in Saturday's race. Don't expect much better from him in Sunday's event, as it doesn't seem like he has much speed in the Cup Series yet, apart from road courses and drafting tracks as his 34th-place qualifying run on Saturday indicates. After finishing only 28th with an average running position of 30th in the Coca-Cola 600 in his only other non-drafting intermediate race, it seems like he's going to need more races under his belt before he picks up speed on this track type.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 weeks agoEven though Chase Elliott contended to win at Las Vegas a couple times with the Gen 6 chassis, he has generally struggled with the Next Gen chassis, as he has never led a lap at the track or finished better than ninth with this chassis. He only qualified 18th for Sunday's event, while all three of his Hendrick Motorsports teammates made the final round of qualifying. Even though he is still delivering consistent finishes and has the best average finish of the year, that won't really help him much with a points system that significantly rewards drivers for leading on specific laps, when he has only led more than five laps once in the last 14 races. He may very well get his usual top-10 finish, but he will probably lose stage points to several other playoff drivers and will likely remain below the playoff cut line.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 weeks agoLas Vegas has been a decent track for Austin Dillon, who qualified 13th for Sunday's race. Although he's rarely significantly factored for the lead or the win, he has started and finished between 10th and 20th in all but one of the last seven races at this track and he's been a little faster since Justin Alexander returned as crew chief. Furthermore, Richard Childress Racing has struggled for speed at a lot of track types, but intermediates have probably been their best track type this season. At the last intermediate race in Kansas, Kyle Busch led late while Dillon finished 12th, and Dillon finished 16th in the first Las Vegas race this year with Keith Rodden, who is not as good as Alexander. Dillon will most likely finish just outside the top 10.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 weeks agoAfter being eliminated from the NASCAR playoffs last week despite his best efforts, Austin Cindric qualified a solid 11th right behind his teammate Joey Logano. Although Cindric has a long-standing history of qualifying well and fading through the pack as a race progresses, he's done a little better at avoiding that in the second half of this season and he seems to have generally had an uptick in speed. However, at Las Vegas specifically, he has actually qualified better than this four times and in three of those four races he finished 19th or worse and his average running positions have always been significantly worse than his starting positions. Although his recent performance suggests he may fight his usual trend, expect him to more likely fade to mid-pack again.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 weeks agoWhile Chase Briscoe has certain tracks where he runs very well, flat intermediates tend to not be one of them as he is often significantly lacking in speed at those tracks. In the most recent intermediate race at Kansas, he pretty much ensured that he would be eliminated from the NASCAR playoffs after falling from 9th to 24th. Although Briscoe did get a top five finish at Las Vegas two years ago, the No. 14 team had a lot more speed that year than this year, especially now that they are effectively a lame duck team. As a result, Briscoe's qualifying position of 24th matched his worst ever at Las Vegas, and considering his Kansas run and also that he fell from 6th to 21st in the first Las Vegas race, a mediocre run definitely looks likely.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 weeks agoAlthough Josh Berry has won twice at Las Vegas in the NASCAR Xfinity Series, he has not been very competitive there in the Cup Series, as he only finished 20th in the March race, and he had a miserable run the year before when he finished 29th while filling in for Chase Elliott in a race where all three of his Hendrick teammates swept the top three. Since he is starting 28th, he is a lame duck driver for a lame duck team, and he almost certainly lost the Rookie of the Year award to Carson Hocevar, it's hard to imagine that he will be very motivated or have more than a mid-pack run, and it definitely doesn't help that the Fords in general and the Stewart-Haas cars in particular have seemed to significantly lack speed on intermediate tracks.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
4 weeks agoBubba Wallace of 23XI Racing will start 19th for the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway on Sunday in the Cup Series. This will be Wallace's lowest starting position at Las Vegas since the introduction of the Next-Gen car in 2022. In 13 previous starts at Vegas, Wallace has four top-20 finishes, with two inside the Top 10, and he scored positive Place Differential at the site five times. In 32 races completed in 2024, Wallace has 24 top-20 finishes, including each of the last four races at 1.5-mile Intermediate tracks. In practice, Wallace ranked 17th in overall lap averages but ranked in the Top 15 or higher in all other categories on speed. Based on his equipment, practice speeds, and prior performances at Intermediate tracks this year, Wallace is one of the better mid-range drivers who can collect some positive upside and finish inside the Top 15.
--Sean Engel - RotoBallerSource: DriverAverages.com
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