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Fantasy baseball outlooks for Pittsburgh Pirates players Jack Suwinski, Rodolfo Castro, Carlos Santana, Johan Oviedo, and Vince Velasquez. Are they trade targets and undervalued sleepers, or are they bound for regression?
We are 23 games into the major league baseball season, and the last team we expected to succeed going into the season is top of their division. At this stage, the NL Central division leader is the Pittsburgh Pirates. Projected for under 70 wins by most projection systems and sportsbooks, the Pirates have shattered expectations with a 16-7 record. This feat is made all the more impressive considering Oneil Cruz went down just nine games into the season in a scary collision at home plate.
The Pirates stand a game above the equally-hot Milwaukee Brewers, three games above the almost-as-hot Chicago Cubs, seven games above the purported powerhouse St. Louis Cardinals and eight above the toiling Cincinnati Reds. The Pirates have the second-best record in the league, standing four games below the record-breaking Tampa Bay Rays.
The Pirates have this hot start because of critical contributions from unexpected sources: Colorado import Connor Joe leads the team in WAR, second-year player Jack Suwinski has an OPS above 1.000, and career 4.00 ERA guy Johan Oviedo has a 197 ERA+. But it’s worth asking whether this syncing of hot starts from these previously disregarded players is just a matter of good timing. Are these marginal fantasy players worth rostering for the rest of the season?
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Jack Suwinski (OF)
One of the more surprising stand-outs this season is Jack Suwinski. Suwinski was a throw-in for the 2021 trade that sent Adam Frazier from Pittsburgh to San Diego. He debuted in late April 2022 after COVID decimated Pittsburgh’s outfield, and he would stay for the rest of the season. In 2022, he slashed .202/.298/.411 with 19 home runs, 38 RBI, and a 30.6% K rate.
Through 14 games this season, the 24-year-old is slashing .255/.383/.638 with five home runs, 12 RBI, a 28.3% K rate, and a wOBA of .421. An OPS above 1.000 is driven by a 95.2 mph average exit velocity, 18.3% walk rate, and 56.3% hard-hit barrel rate. His batted ball profile is incredible; he has a 40.6% fly ball rate, 15.6% solid contact rate, and a 25% barrel rate. He has cut down on his chase rate from 24.5% last year to 14.2% this year.
There is very little luck involved in his early-season success. Suwinski will likely be a productive player in fantasy baseball for the rest of the season. Take him off your waiver wires before someone else does.
Connor Joe (1B/OF)
The leader in fWAR for the Pirates this season is the newly acquired Connor Joe. He is slashing .339/.435/.610 with a .467 wOBA, two home runs, eight RBI, and one stolen base.
Connor Joe gets the Pirates started with a three-run shot! pic.twitter.com/rFNBE4dp0f
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 20, 2023
It's a marked improvement from last year when Joe slashed .238/.338/.359 with seven home runs, 28 RBI, and six stolen bases in 111 games for the Colorado Rockies. It's tough to improve as a hitter when you move away from Coors, but Joe is hitting the ball harder with an average exit velocity of 91.2 mph and a hard-hit rate of 53.5%.
However, the 30-year-old is the Pirate who is most likely to regress. He started the 2022 season with a .865 OPS, four home runs, ten walks, and eight RBI in the first month. He followed that up with a .139 batting average after the break.
The same phenomenon may repeat this year. He is having insane luck against breaking balls and offspeed pitches. Joe struggled with both last year, having a batting average under .190 on breaking and offspeed pitches. While he is batting .333 on breaking pitches and .286 on offspeed pitches this year, his expected batting average on breaking and offspeed pitches is .241 and .154, respectively.
Connor Joe should be rostered as long as he stays hot, but he's bound to fall back down to earth.
Rodolfo Castro (SS/2B/3B)
Rodolfo Castro is filling in for Oneil Cruz at shortstop this season, and he hasn't missed a beat so far.
Through 23 games, he is slashing .258/.370/.403 with two home runs, eight RBI, and a .357 wOBA. Castro is another Pirate player hitting the ball much harder this year, with a 91.3 mph exit velocity, 47.5% hard-hit rate, and a 15% barrel rate. The 23-year-old has also performed better against breaking pitches this season, upping his expected batting average on them from .149 last season to .217 this season.
Rodolfo Castro should offer modest fantasy production throughout the rest of the season, but that is worth rostering in deeper leagues.
Carlos Santana (1B)
The veteran first baseman is having a vintage season. He hasn't been at the top of his game recently, holding an OPS under .700 in each of the last five seasons. That lowered production was likely due to the prevalence of the defensive shift. He was shifted on 98.1% of his at-bats in 2022 and had a .285 wOBA.
No longer saddled by the shift, Santana is slashing .264/.340/.425 with two home runs, 13 RBI, and eight doubles. Santana is maintaining roughly the same average exit velocity as last year, and his expected batting average is six points lower than last season. The demise of the shift has revived his career, and he will likely keep up this production for the rest of the season.
Vince Velasquez (SP)
One of the more surprising show-outs on the pitching side is starter Vince Velasquez. He was signed by the Pirates this offseason on a one-year prove-it deal. He has been solid through five starts with a 3.76 ERA, three wins, and a 23.9% K rate. He isn't pitching lights-out, but it's an improvement; Velasquez has never pitched a season with an ERA under 4.00.
He has used a two-pitch combination so far. His slider has become one of the more effective pitches to be thrown this year, with a .185 wOBA on 187 pitches. However, hitters have knocked around his fastball with a .434 wOBA against the pitch. His four-seamer was his best pitch in 2022, with a -6 run value. The metrics on his fastball are mostly the same, but he has been punished on his fastball when it misses the zone.
Vince Velasquez, Wicked Sliders. 🤢
9th and 10th Ks pic.twitter.com/P0SJp19jBW
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 23, 2023
Velasquez can be a solid back-end rotation arm, but he needs to be more consistent before we can confidently say that he can be rostered in most leagues.
Johan Oviedo (SP)
Johan Oviedo has been the most productive starter in their pitching staff this season. Through five starts, he holds a 3.03 ERA with an average exit velocity of 87.2 mph and a barrel rate of 2.9% on his pitches.
He has accomplished this largely off the strength of his breaking pitches. His curveball has a .087 opponent batting average and a -5 run value this season. His slider has a .174 expected opponent batting average with a -2 run value. As a result, his chase contact rate has been cut down from 52.6% last year to 35.6% this season. If his slider and curveball keep working, Oviedo is in for a solid season.
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