X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Pitchers Advanced Metrics Leaders for CSW% Statcast Studs and Duds (Week 13)

Connelly Doan examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, and whose CSW% could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 13.

Welcome to another edition of RotoBaller’s Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds article series for Week 13 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season! Today we'll be taking a look at names like Sonny Gray, Michael King, Lance Lynn and Andrew Abbott. Each week, I will select one stat, choose a few pitchers with strong metrics and poor metrics, and analyze them to determine how their future performance may change.

I have written about several strikeout and strike-generating metrics this season. Strikeouts play an important part in both roto and points fantasy leagues, so I have analyzed them from various angles. One broader and newer metric I have yet to look at is called + swinging strike rate (CSW%). CSW% is as it sounds; it is the percentage of pitches thrown that are called strikes or result in swinging strikes.

Fantasy managers should be taking stock of their rotations as the first half of the fantasy season wraps up. Identifying pitchers who have generated strikes can be a helpful exercise in assessing how solid their rotations are. Without further ado, let's analyze some CSW% Studs and Duds!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

CSW% Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 16, 2024.

Sonny Gray, St. Louis Cardinals

8-4, 3.01 ERA, 33.0% Strikeout Rate, 31.5% CSW%

Sonny Gray has served as a higher-end fantasy option throughout his career and has continued to do so with the Cardinals. The 34-year-old has an 8-4 record with a 3.01 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a career-high 33.0% strikeout rate in 12 starts and 68 2/3 innings pitched. His 31.5% CSW% is much higher than his career 28.6% mark and is one of the highest in baseball. How has he generated so many more strikes?

The first point of investigation is his swinging-strike rate. Gray has managed a career-high 12.5% swinging-strike rate, which is a good deal higher than his 10.3% career average. His change in pitch mix could be driving this. Gray introduced a cutter to his repertoire last season and has integrated it even more in exchange for his four-seam fastball. His four-seamer has yielded a 6.5% swinging-strike rate but his cutter has been over twice that with an impressive 15.2% swinging-strike rate.

He has also focused on throwing the ball in the strike zone more. He has managed a career-high 53.4% zone rate, which has helped his called-strike rate jump from 16.6% last season to 18.9%. This hasn't benefitted his walk rate, but his 7.2% mark is still very acceptable.

Fantasy managers have seen various iterations of Gray throughout his career and his strikeout stuff is currently playing up more than it ever has. He has swapped some four-seam usage for a cutter, which has helped him miss more bats. Additionally, he has thrown the ball in the strike zone more, resulting in more called strikes. All signs are pointing to a career fantasy season for Gray if his current performance persists.

Michael King, San Diego Padres

5-4, 3.58 ERA, 27.1% Strikeout Rate, 30.7% CSW%

Michael King had a rough start to the season but has righted the ship with his new team, resulting in a 5-4 record with a 3.58 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP, and a 27.1% strikeout rate in 15 appearances (14 starts) and 83 IP. His 30.7% CSW% is even more encouraging than his peripherals. Should fantasy managers buy his recent performance or should they be worried about how he started the season?

King seems to have settled on his sinker as his primary fastball after a rough March and April and has faded his four-seamer for his sweeper/slider and changeup. His sinker has about half the swinging-strike rate of his four-seamer, but his sweeper/slider and changeup are his best swing-and-miss pitches with 12.5% and 20.3% swinging-strike rates. He has thrown his sinker in the strike zone slightly more than his four-seamer and has gotten better results overall.

King has also experienced natural regression to his career averages. His 13.0% walk rate in March and April was much higher than his 8.4% career mark, but he has seen a drop to 6.9% in May and June. Additionally, King allowed uncharacteristically hard contact at the beginning of the season. He experienced an 88.5-MPH average exit velocity and a 42.6% hard-hit rate to start the season but has dropped those marks to 83.6 MPH and 21.0% in May and June.

King doesn't have a huge track record as a starter, but he has been an effective, high-strikeout pitcher throughout his career. His slow start may have had to do with joining a new team and having an unorthodox start to the season with the Korea series. His underlying numbers look as expected over the last two months, leading me to believe that he should continue to be a consistent fantasy pitcher.

The only caveat is a potential innings limit. The 29-year-old pitched a career-high 104 2/3 innings last season and is already at 83 IP. Concerned fantasy managers may consider attempting to sell King because of this, but his performance should not be in question.

 

CSW% Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, June 16, 2024.

Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals

2-3, 3.75 ERA, 22.0% Strikeout Rate, 24.0% CSW%

Lance Lynn had a surprisingly awful 2023 season, but he has returned to the Cardinals and has gotten things turned around in 2024. The 37-year-old veteran has gone 2-3 with a 3.75 ERA, a 1.39 WHIP, and a 22.0% strikeout rate in 14 starts and 69 2/3 IP. One metric that has actually gotten worse is his 24.0% CSW%, which is one of the lowest among qualified pitchers. Can Lynn continue his return to being a serviceable fantasy pitcher?

Lynn's pitching approach seems to explain some of his trends over the last few seasons. He has always relied heavily on fastballs, but he has steadily lost velocity on his four-seamer and has increasingly relied on his cutter and sinker, which are not as effective swing-and-miss pitches. He has also thrown his pitches in the zone less while getting fewer chases, resulting in an increased 9.7% walk rate.

He has become more of a pitch-to-contact starter. His 78.4% contact rate is his highest mark since 2018. He has done an above-average job limiting hard contact, but his increased contact has contributed to his 1.39 WHIP, which leaves something to be desired.

Lynn is having a nice bounce-back season, although he is not as strong of a fantasy contributor as he once was. He has traded strikeouts for contact while also allowing more walks. He hasn't allowed particularly hard contact but has dealt with a lot of traffic on the basepaths. This has led to some short starts, and he has not made it five innings in each of his last three starts.

Overall, Lynn can still provide back-of-the-rotation fantasy value, but he will likely be the most effective as a streamer in points leagues. His high WHIP, lower strikeouts, and erratic starts do not benefit fantasy managers in roto leagues, but can still result in fantasy points.

Andrew Abbott, Cincinnati Reds

5-6, 3.42 ERA, 18.3% Strikeout Rate, 24.3% CSW%

Andrew Abbott has improved upon his rookie peripherals to this point, going 5-6 with a 3.42 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in 14 starts and 79 IP. The 25-year-old's 18.3% strikeout rate is much lower than his 2023 mark of 26.1%, which has partly contributed to a low 24.3% CSW%. Can fantasy managers trust that Abbott can continue to provide fantasy value without getting high strikeout numbers?

Abbott relies heavily on his four-seam fastball, which is not overpowering at 92.8 MPH and doesn't generate a ton of spin. He works the pitch up in the zone and is a fly-ball pitcher with an average overall launch angle of 21.3 degrees. Perhaps hitters weren't used to this pitch approach last season and have adjusted, as his swinging-strike rates are down on all of his pitches.

He has thrown the ball in the zone slightly more with a 52.5% zone rate compared to 50.1% last season. However, he has gotten fewer chases and has seen a big jump in contact rate from 76.5% to 82.4%. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, as Abbott has avoided hard contact, with an average exit velocity and hard-hit rate in the 79th and 90th percentiles of baseball. He will still give up homers occasionally as a fly-ball pitcher pitching his home games in Great American Ballpark, but his 11.0% HR/FB rate is tolerable.

Abbott displayed above-average strikeout skills during his minor-league tenure, which seemed to carry over in 2023. Those skills have not translated in 2024, but Abbott has done other things well. He has greatly reduced the hard contact he has allowed despite keeping the ball in the air, leading to a .249 BABIP. His 4.63 SIERA suggests this approach may not work for Great American Ballpark, but his 3.31 xERA is encouraging.

The big drop in strikeouts is perplexing, but there haven't been any discernable changes in Abbott's pitch arsenal. Fantasy managers will need a greater sample to know for sure if this is just a blip, but I am not ready to buy that Abbott's low CSW% and strikeout rate will persist for the rest of the season.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Sabermetrics and Statcast Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Brandin Podziemski10 mins ago

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford16 mins ago

Starts Game 2
Michael Porter Jr.24 mins ago

Practices On Wednesday
Jayson Tatum34 mins ago

Out On Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart38 mins ago

May Miss Another Game Thursday
NYI53 mins ago

Cal Clutterbuck Announces Retirement
Pavel Zacha1 hour ago

Recovering From Small Procedure
Will Smith1 hour ago

Out With Sore Wrist On Wednesday
Connor Wong1 hour ago

Likely To Go On Rehab Assignment This Weekend
Nikolaj Ehlers1 hour ago

To Miss At Least Two More Games
Lucas Giolito1 hour ago

Could Make Season Debut Next Thursday
Miro Heiskanen1 hour ago

Still Out On Wednesday
Blake Snell1 hour ago

To Be Shut Down From Throwing, Might Go For More Imaging
John Klingberg2 hours ago

Enters Oilers Lineup For Game 2
Grayson Rodriguez2 hours ago

Has Mild Lat Strain, To Resume Throwing In A Couple Weeks
Evander Kane2 hours ago

To Make Season Debut Wednesday Night
Edwin Díaz2 hours ago

Edwin Diaz Leaves With Left-Hip Cramping On Wednesday
Gabriel Landeskog2 hours ago

Likely To Play In Game 3
Cam Smith2 hours ago

Absent From Astros Lineup
Will Smith2 hours ago

Resting At Wrigley
Denver Broncos3 hours ago

Broncos Not Expected To Trade Up In Round 1
Nicky Lopez3 hours ago

Cubs Re-Signing Nicky Lopez
Houston Texans3 hours ago

Texans Trying To Move Up In Round 1 Of NFL Draft
Atlanta Falcons3 hours ago

James Pearce Jr., Mike Green Potential Top Targets For Falcons
Royce Lewis3 hours ago

Expected To Start Rehab Assignment This Week
Pablo López3 hours ago

Pablo Lopez Likely To Rejoin The Rotation This Weekend
Dallas Cowboys3 hours ago

Cowboys Could Add Wide Receiver Help With No. 12 Pick
Justin Martinez3 hours ago

Dealing With Shoulder Fatigue
New Orleans Saints4 hours ago

Saints Likely To Address Defense With No. 9 Pick?
Kristian Campbell4 hours ago

Sitting Against Mariners
4 hours ago

Rams Eyeing Trade Up For Tyler Warren, Colston Loveland?
Kyle Freeland4 hours ago

Next Outing To Be Determined
Ezequiel Tovar4 hours ago

Could Be Battling Hip Injury All Year
Patrick Mahomes4 hours ago

Itching To Get Explosive Passing Game Back
Kris Bryant4 hours ago

Not Ready To Return
Jacob Stallings4 hours ago

Kyle Farmer Sitting On Wednesday
Willi Castro4 hours ago

Not Playing On Wednesday
Zac Veen5 hours ago

Optioned to Triple-A
Brenton Doyle5 hours ago

Activated From Bereavement List
Lucas Erceg5 hours ago

Returns To Action On Tuesday
Chris Olave5 hours ago

Saints Picking Up Chris Olave's Fifth-Year Option
Derek Carr5 hours ago

Saints Hope To Have Clarity On Derek Carr Soon
5 hours ago

Chiefs Talk With TreVeyon Henderson
Los Angeles Rams5 hours ago

Rams Not Ruling Out Acquiring Jalen Ramsey
Dallas Cowboys6 hours ago

Micah Parsons Taking Part In Offseason Program
Anthony Richardson6 hours ago

Working On His Footwork
Kayshon Boutte6 hours ago

A Trade Candidate?
Kirk Cousins6 hours ago

Browns, Steelers, Vikings Could Target A Trade For Kirk Cousins
Jaren Jackson Jr.9 hours ago

Posts Team-High 26 Points In Tuesday's Loss
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander9 hours ago

Notches 27 Points Despite Poor Shooting
Max Greyserman9 hours ago

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Pascal Siakam9 hours ago

Scores Team-High 24 Points In Game 2 Win
Giannis Antetokounmpo9 hours ago

Posts Big Double-Double In Game 2 Loss
Lee Hodges9 hours ago

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA9 hours ago

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Julius Randle10 hours ago

Leads Timberwolves In Scoring In Game 2
Gary Woodland10 hours ago

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Luka Dončić10 hours ago

Luka Doncic Nets 31 Points In Lakers Win
Max McGreevy10 hours ago

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard10 hours ago

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Jock Landale10 hours ago

Unavailable For Game 2
Sam Stevens10 hours ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Jae'Sean Tate10 hours ago

Remains Out Wednesday
Nicolai Hojgaard10 hours ago

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
John Tavares10 hours ago

Collects Two Points In Overtime Win
Christiaan Bezuidenhout10 hours ago

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Frederik Andersen10 hours ago

Posts 40th Postseason Win
Akshay Bhatia10 hours ago

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young10 hours ago

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Kirill Kaprizov10 hours ago

Leads Wild To Valuable Road Win
Matthew Tkachuk10 hours ago

Returns With Three-Point Performance
Erik Van Rooyen10 hours ago

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Anthony Cirelli11 hours ago

Suffers Undisclosed Injury Tuesday
Gabriel Vilardi11 hours ago

May Return To Jets Lineup Thursday
John Klingberg11 hours ago

Ready To Return To Action
Evander Kane11 hours ago

Could Be An Option For Game 2
Michael Pittman Jr.18 hours ago

Back Injury Is In The Past
George Pickens19 hours ago

Steelers Appear Unlikely To Trade George Pickens
Jaylen Warren19 hours ago

Steelers Believe Jaylen Warren Can Be Their RB1
Andrew Novak20 hours ago

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin21 hours ago

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore22 hours ago

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark22 hours ago

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama22 hours ago

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa22 hours ago

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Jaylen Warren22 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Steelers
Will Levis24 hours ago

Unlikely To Be Traded
Houston Texans1 day ago

Texans Considering Trading Up
Thomas Detry1 day ago

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
Terry Rozier1 day ago

Ruled Out For Wednesday
Damian Lillard1 day ago

Will Have His Minutes Monitored Tuesday
Jayson Tatum1 day ago

Listed As Doubtful For Game 2
Robert MacIntyre1 day ago

Returns To Zurich Classic With High Hopes
Derek Forbort1 day ago

Recovering From Surgery
Martin Fehérváry1 day ago

Martin Fehervary To Miss Postseason Following Knee Surgery
Shane Lowry1 day ago

Returning To Zurich Classic With Red-Hot Teammate
Luke Glendening1 day ago

Available For Start Of Playoffs
Mitchell Chaffee1 day ago

Available Tuesday
Cody Glass1 day ago

Good To Go Tuesday
Brenden Dillon1 day ago

Won't Play In Game 2
Damian Lillard1 day ago

Cleared To Play Tuesday
Nikola Jokić1 day ago

Nikola Jokic Posts 19th Postseason Triple-Double
Kawhi Leonard1 day ago

Leads Clippers To Game 2 Victory
Jalen Brunson1 day ago

Leads All Scorers With 37 Points In Monday's Loss
Tobias Harris1 day ago

Notches Double-Double In Game 2 Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF