X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Pitcher Risers and Fallers Since Sticky Substance Enforcement

Zack Wheeler - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury nNews

On June 21st, MLB decided to really crack down on foreign substances used by pitchers. "Random" inspections of pitcher gloves and clothing were instituted to make sure pitchers were not using an illegal sticky substance to get a better grip on the ball. This created quite the buzz in the fantasy baseball community.

We've had more than two full weeks of data since the enforcement crackdown, which equates to at least a couple of starts for the league's healthy pitchers. That still makes it quite early to be looking at statistical outputs, but it's worth taking a peek to get ahead of possible fallers. I've put together a Tableau dashboard where you can see the average spin rate for every pitcher and pitch type broken down by month. You can find that here. It will be updated every couple of days, so feel free to bookmark it for future reference.

We don't necessarily know what effect the removal of sticky substances will have on the league's pitchers. Most people speculate that strikeouts would decrease since pitchers can't move the ball as well anymore, and maybe walks would even increase since pitchers just don't have the same grip on the ball which hurts their ability to command their pitches. None of this is known for sure and it won't exactly be easy to prove even after we get more and more data because we simply will never know what pitchers were using what substances before the crackdown. Let's go through a couple of statistics and publish some data tables for you to parse through.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball draft tools and resources:

 

Swinging Strike Rate

Jon Lester has been brutal since 6/21. Granted, he's only thrown 10.2 innings since the cutoff here, but it took him 243 pitches to get through those innings. He has a pitiful 4.5% SwStr% in that time with an 11.82 ERA and a 2.53 WHIP. Checking the spin rates, we can see that Lester's spin rates have been plummeting as the season has progressed.

Now, Lester isn't the most interesting name for fantasy purposes to say the least. Some other names near the top of the list:

Sandy Alcantara: I wouldn't be too worried about him here since he's a sinkerballer that relies on velocity and ground balls. Sinkers depend less on spin than other pitches, so I wouldn't expect Alcantara to be majorly impacted by the foreign substance thing - but I could be wrong.

Robbie Ray: The Blue Jays breakout lefty has made three starts since June 21st, and has seen his swinging-strike rate decline significantly in that time. He has still been good in the box scores over that time, allowing just six runs in those innings, but his strikeouts have been down overall with just 22 in those 19 innings (that's still a K/9 of 10.42, which is quite good, but down from the 11.69 he posted before June 21). Ray hasn't seen any significant loss in velocity or spin, so there might not be the real reason for concern here, but he has certainly been fooling hitters less frequently of late.

Frankie Montas: Montas has seen spin loss on his four-seamer and slider since the calendar turned to June, which makes his recent performance a bit more alarming. He gave up eight runs to the Rangers on 6/21 in 5.2 innings while striking out six. Since then he'd been better at preventing runs (four earned in 10.2 innings), but the strikeouts have not been there with just eight punchouts while he's walked six. I'd be a bit worried about Montas.

Joe Musgrove: This might be the most worrisome name near the top of the list because Musgrove has seen drops in most metrics since 6/21. His CSW% is 28.3% since then (down 3.8 points), and he's throwing significantly fewer strikes as well (down 6.5 percentage points). He's given up 10 runs in his last two starts against the Nationals and Reds while striking out just seven batters in nine innings.

 

Zone Rate

This statistic is the percentage of pitches that end up in the strike zone, disregarding the outcome of the pitch.

We see Jon Lester once again at the top of the list, as he's been completely lost on the mound recently, losing eight points on his zone rate. Julio Urias is another concerning name here, although part of his #2 seating has to do with just how many strikes he was throwing prior. When you have a 66% zone rate, it's not surprising to see that come downwards since it's just such a crazy high number. Urias doesn't seem to have lost a significant amount of velocity or spin, so I wouldn't be too concerned.

It's interesting to see Gerrit Cole near the top here. Cole is probably the pitcher fantasy managers are most worried about given the premium price people paid for him. He's given up 10 earned runs over his last two starts, which is about what you'd expect him to give up over a handful of starts usually. His strikeout rate has been falling since mid-May and he hasn't struck out more than six batters since June 9th. Cole's SwStr% is only slightly down (less than one percentage point), but the command has definitely taken a hit. His strikeout numbers are still fine since June 21st with a strong 13.7% SwStr% and 10.6 K/9, but they just aren't quite as elite as we're used to seeing. I don't think you have the hands-down SP1 you thought you did with Cole right now.

 

CSW Rate

This is a combination of the two stats we've already talked about, with SwStr% making up a huge chunk of what CSW is. I feel it's worth checking on though, so here it is:

We once again see Alcantara, Ray, and Cole near the top, but Brandon Woodruff appears in the top five as well.

Woody's spin rates have been down quite a bit in July and he had one of his worst outings of the year last time against the Mets. His strikeout rate has been declining a bit as of late as well, as he's racked up just 33 strikeouts in his last 31.1 innings - again, still a solid number but a decline from the beginning of the year nonetheless. I wouldn't be overly worried about Woodruff, but he is someone that is certainly worth watching closely in his next couple of outings.

 

Improvers

Some names that have taken strides forward in the stats we mentioned above since June 21st:

German Marquez: He will always have his issues for fantasy purposes pitching in Coors, but he's been really good since 6/21 with a 34% CSW% and a 14.7% SwStr% to go with his 1.17 ERA and 0.43 WHIP.

Aaron Nola: The strikeouts have been plentiful with Nola recently although he's still giving up hits and runs. His SwStr% is elite at 15.2% since 6/21. I'd be targeting Nola in trades.

Kyle Gibson: Nothing about Gibson's season has made any sense to me, but the guy has an 11.6% SwStr% and a ridiculous 10 K/9 since June 21st. I'd still be trying to trade him but look - I'm wrong all the time.

 

Full Spin Data

Here's a little bonus for you! Here's a searchable data table with average spin rates for every pitch in every month. This is the same data that powers my Tableau dashboard. This won't be updated automatically though, so this data is only current as of July 7th.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Brady Tkachuk19 mins ago

Available Saturday
Donovan Mitchell20 mins ago

Questionable Against Orlando
Adam Fox26 mins ago

Ready To Rejoin Rangers Lineup
Andre Drummond28 mins ago

Out Against Dallas
Ja Morant37 mins ago

Questionable On Saturday Night
P.J. Washington46 mins ago

Returning On Sunday
Philadelphia Eagles3 hours ago

Patrick Johnson Rejoins Philadelphia
Dante Exum4 hours ago

Diagnosed With A Fractured Left Hand
Los Angeles Rams4 hours ago

Larrell Murchison Back With The Rams
Amed Rosario4 hours ago

Returning On Saturday
Cam Thomas4 hours ago

Expected To Miss Rest Of The Season
Jose Trevino4 hours ago

Going For CT Scan
Kirk Cousins4 hours ago

Set To Receive Roster Bonus
Bryce Eldridge4 hours ago

Will Not Play On Saturday
Aaron Rodgers4 hours ago

Wants To Play In Minnesota
Blake Perkins4 hours ago

Cleared For Light Baseball Activities
Doug Nikhazy4 hours ago

Optioned To Triple-A
Jung Hoo Lee5 hours ago

Scratched On Saturday With Back Tightness
Cody Bradford5 hours ago

Won't Throw For At Least Four Weeks
Colorado Rockies5 hours ago

Charlie Condon Out At Least Six Weeks With Broken Wrist
Bryce Miller5 hours ago

Ironing Out The Kinks In Spring Training
Logan Gilbert5 hours ago

Named Opening Day Starter
Mookie Betts5 hours ago

Missing Tokyo Exhibition Games Due To Illness
Jesús Sánchez5 hours ago

Jesus Sanchez To Miss Four Weeks With Oblique Strain
Jon Gray5 hours ago

Has A Fractured Right Wrist
Bobby Witt Jr.6 hours ago

Back In Cactus League Lineup On Saturday
Washington Commanders6 hours ago

Clelin Ferrell Returning To Washington
New York Jets6 hours ago

Kris Boyd Signs With The Jets
Garrett Crochet6 hours ago

Starting On Opening Day
Nick Castellanos6 hours ago

Returning On Saturday
Trevor Story6 hours ago

Starting On Saturday
Los Angeles Chargers6 hours ago

Mekhi Becton Inks Deal With Chargers
Ke'Bryan Hayes6 hours ago

Returning On Saturday
Tyler Johnson6 hours ago

Links Up With Jets
Jordan Walker6 hours ago

Returns To Lineup On Saturday
Paul Skenes6 hours ago

Named Opening Day Starter
Gunnar Henderson7 hours ago

Hopes To Be Ready For Opening Day
Kyle Juszczyk7 hours ago

Returns To 49ers
Eeli Tolvanen11 hours ago

Scores Twice In Victory
WPG11 hours ago

Kyle Connor Strikes Twice On Friday
Jack Roslovic11 hours ago

Tallies Goal, Assist In Friday's Victory
Leon Draisaitl11 hours ago

Leads Edmonton To Victory
Liam O'Brien11 hours ago

Exits With Undisclosed Injury
Josh Manson12 hours ago

Exits On Friday
Kevin Porter Jr.20 hours ago

Expected To Be Available Saturday
Atlanta Falcons20 hours ago

Falcons Agree To Terms With Morgan Fox
Damian Lillard20 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Saturday's Game
Giannis Antetokounmpo20 hours ago

Probable For Saturday
Lonzo Ball20 hours ago

Remains Out For Saturday
Indianapolis Colts20 hours ago

Colts Sign Corey Ballentine To One-Year Deal On Friday
Trendon Watford20 hours ago

Will Miss Saturday's Game
Chet Holmgren20 hours ago

Resting Versus Detroit
Nicolas Claxton20 hours ago

Resting On Saturday
Pittsburgh Steelers20 hours ago

Brandin Echols Signs Two-Year Deal With Steelers
Josh Giddey21 hours ago

Not Likely To Play Saturday
Noah Clowney21 hours ago

To Remain Out Against Celtics
Kenny Yeboah21 hours ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Lions
Avery Williams21 hours ago

Signs With Eagles
Cam Thomas21 hours ago

Sits Out First Leg Of Back-To-Back Saturday
Jalen Williams21 hours ago

Still Out On Saturday
Coby White21 hours ago

Listed As Probable For Saturday
Kene Nwangwu21 hours ago

Jets Re-Sign Kene Nwangwu To One-Year Deal
Cody Martin21 hours ago

Cleared To Return Friday
Trey Lyles21 hours ago

Misses Friday's Game Due To Back Soreness
Grayson Allen21 hours ago

Not Playing Friday
Simi Fehoko23 hours ago

Signing With Cardinals
Kylen Granson23 hours ago

Headed To Philadelphia
Sterling Shepard23 hours ago

Remaining With Buccaneers
Cincinnati Bengals24 hours ago

Bengals Not Ruling Out Trey Hendrickson Extension
Cooper Kupp24 hours ago

Signing With Seahawks
Karel Vejmelka1 day ago

Makes Ninth Consecutive Start Friday
Dustin Wolf1 day ago

Set To Face Avalanche Friday
Mikael Backlund1 day ago

Out Week-To-Week
Sam Colangelo1 day ago

Deemed Day-To-Day With An Upper-Body Injury
Michael Bunting1 day ago

A Game-Time Call Friday
Dallas Cowboys1 day ago

Dante Fowler Jr. Heading Back To Cowboys
Andrei Svechnikov1 day ago

Expected To Return Next Week
Nikolaj Ehlers1 day ago

Good To Go Against Stars
Mackenzie Blackwood1 day ago

Battling Illness, Not Starting On Friday
Rasmus Ristolainen1 day ago

Day-To-Day With Upper-Body Injury
Lian Bichsel1 day ago

Not Playing On Friday
Josh Norris1 day ago

Undergoing Evaluation
JJ Peterka1 day ago

Not Playing On Saturday
Neal Pionk1 day ago

Viewed As Week-To-Week
Roman Dolidze1 day ago

Set For A Rematch
Marvin Vettori1 day ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Chidi Njokuani1 day ago

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos1 day ago

Looks For His 12th UFC Win
Kurt Holobaugh1 day ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 104
Alexander Hernandez1 day ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Cody Gibson1 day ago

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Da'Mon Blackshear1 day ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 104
Brendson Ribeiro1 day ago

Searching For Second UFC Win On Saturday
Diyar Nurgozhay1 day ago

Set To Make His UFC Debut
MMA1 day ago

Seung Woo Choi In Dire Need Of Victory
Kevin Vallejos1 day ago

Makes Debut At UFC Vegas 104
Jacob Bridgeman3 days ago

Use Caution For Jacob Bridgeman At TPC Sawgrass
Nicolai Hojgaard3 days ago

Looks To Stay Consistent Heading Into PLAYERS Championship
Karl Vilips3 days ago

Makes PLAYERS Championship Debut After First PGA Tour Win
Taylor Pendrith3 days ago

A Sneaky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Sahith Theegala3 days ago

Out Of Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick3 days ago

A Shaky Play Heading Into PLAYERS
Scottie Scheffler3 days ago

Eyeing Three-Peat At TPC Sawgrass
Aldrich Potgieter3 days ago

A Risky Play At TPC Sawgrass
Si Woo Kim3 days ago

Looks To Keep Building Momentum At The PLAYERS
Denny McCarthy3 days ago

Looks To Continue Solid Play At TPC Sawgrass
Collin Morikawa4 days ago

Poised For Another Strong Performance At TPC Sawgrass
Robert MacIntyre4 days ago

A Risky Play With Upside At The PLAYERS Championship
Jordan Spieth4 days ago

Looking To Change Fortunes At TPC Sawgrass
Cameron Young4 days ago

Avoid Cameron Young At The PLAYERS Championship
Michael Kim4 days ago

Continues Incredible Form Ahead Of The PLAYERS Championship
Justin Thomas4 days ago

Looking For More Magic At TPC Sawgrass
Xander Schauffele4 days ago

Continues Competitive Return At The Players Championship
Rory McIlroy4 days ago

Looks To Reverse Recent History At TPC Sawgrass
PGA4 days ago

Victor Hovland Looking To Find Form At The PLAYERS Championship
Brian Harman4 days ago

A Sleeper Pick At The PLAYERS Championship
Min Woo Lee4 days ago

A Hard Name To Trust At The Players Championship
Tyler Reddick5 days ago

Power-Steering Failure Foils Tyler Reddick's Bid For Potential Victory
William Byron5 days ago

Recovers From Being Trapped A Lap Down To Finish Sixth
Josh Berry5 days ago

Gives Wood Brothers Team Best Run Since 2021
Alex Pereira5 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 313
Magomed Ankalaev5 days ago

Becomes The New UFC Light-Heavyweight Champion
Justin Gaethje5 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Rafael Fiziev5 days ago

Loses Third Fight In A Row
Ignacio Bahamondes5 days ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC 313
Christopher Bell5 days ago

Scores His Third Consecutive Victory Of The Season At Phoenix
Kyle Larson5 days ago

Strong Phoenix Performance Falls Short Of Victory
Chris Buescher5 days ago

Quietly Earns A Top-Five Finish At Phoenix
Alex Bowman5 days ago

Leaves Phoenix With His Best Finish At The Site Since 2016
Zane Smith5 days ago

Quietly Nabs His First Phoenix Top-10 Finish
Jalin Turner5 days ago

Retires After UFC 313 Loss
Iasmin Lucindo5 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 313
Amanda Lemos5 days ago

Dominates At UFC 313
King Green5 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC 313
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF