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Jon Anderson evaluates starting pitcher metrics since the MLB crackdown on sticky substances to see who are the biggest risers and fallers for fantasy baseball.
On June 21st, MLB decided to really crack down on foreign substances used by pitchers. "Random" inspections of pitcher gloves and clothing were instituted to make sure pitchers were not using an illegal sticky substance to get a better grip on the ball. This created quite the buzz in the fantasy baseball community.
We've had more than two full weeks of data since the enforcement crackdown, which equates to at least a couple of starts for the league's healthy pitchers. That still makes it quite early to be looking at statistical outputs, but it's worth taking a peek to get ahead of possible fallers. I've put together a Tableau dashboard where you can see the average spin rate for every pitcher and pitch type broken down by month. You can find that here. It will be updated every couple of days, so feel free to bookmark it for future reference.
We don't necessarily know what effect the removal of sticky substances will have on the league's pitchers. Most people speculate that strikeouts would decrease since pitchers can't move the ball as well anymore, and maybe walks would even increase since pitchers just don't have the same grip on the ball which hurts their ability to command their pitches. None of this is known for sure and it won't exactly be easy to prove even after we get more and more data because we simply will never know what pitchers were using what substances before the crackdown. Let's go through a couple of statistics and publish some data tables for you to parse through.
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Swinging Strike Rate
Jon Lester has been brutal since 6/21. Granted, he's only thrown 10.2 innings since the cutoff here, but it took him 243 pitches to get through those innings. He has a pitiful 4.5% SwStr% in that time with an 11.82 ERA and a 2.53 WHIP. Checking the spin rates, we can see that Lester's spin rates have been plummeting as the season has progressed.
Now, Lester isn't the most interesting name for fantasy purposes to say the least. Some other names near the top of the list:
Sandy Alcantara: I wouldn't be too worried about him here since he's a sinkerballer that relies on velocity and ground balls. Sinkers depend less on spin than other pitches, so I wouldn't expect Alcantara to be majorly impacted by the foreign substance thing - but I could be wrong.
Robbie Ray: The Blue Jays breakout lefty has made three starts since June 21st, and has seen his swinging-strike rate decline significantly in that time. He has still been good in the box scores over that time, allowing just six runs in those innings, but his strikeouts have been down overall with just 22 in those 19 innings (that's still a K/9 of 10.42, which is quite good, but down from the 11.69 he posted before June 21). Ray hasn't seen any significant loss in velocity or spin, so there might not be the real reason for concern here, but he has certainly been fooling hitters less frequently of late.
Frankie Montas: Montas has seen spin loss on his four-seamer and slider since the calendar turned to June, which makes his recent performance a bit more alarming. He gave up eight runs to the Rangers on 6/21 in 5.2 innings while striking out six. Since then he'd been better at preventing runs (four earned in 10.2 innings), but the strikeouts have not been there with just eight punchouts while he's walked six. I'd be a bit worried about Montas.
Joe Musgrove: This might be the most worrisome name near the top of the list because Musgrove has seen drops in most metrics since 6/21. His CSW% is 28.3% since then (down 3.8 points), and he's throwing significantly fewer strikes as well (down 6.5 percentage points). He's given up 10 runs in his last two starts against the Nationals and Reds while striking out just seven batters in nine innings.
Zone Rate
This statistic is the percentage of pitches that end up in the strike zone, disregarding the outcome of the pitch.
We see Jon Lester once again at the top of the list, as he's been completely lost on the mound recently, losing eight points on his zone rate. Julio Urias is another concerning name here, although part of his #2 seating has to do with just how many strikes he was throwing prior. When you have a 66% zone rate, it's not surprising to see that come downwards since it's just such a crazy high number. Urias doesn't seem to have lost a significant amount of velocity or spin, so I wouldn't be too concerned.
It's interesting to see Gerrit Cole near the top here. Cole is probably the pitcher fantasy managers are most worried about given the premium price people paid for him. He's given up 10 earned runs over his last two starts, which is about what you'd expect him to give up over a handful of starts usually. His strikeout rate has been falling since mid-May and he hasn't struck out more than six batters since June 9th. Cole's SwStr% is only slightly down (less than one percentage point), but the command has definitely taken a hit. His strikeout numbers are still fine since June 21st with a strong 13.7% SwStr% and 10.6 K/9, but they just aren't quite as elite as we're used to seeing. I don't think you have the hands-down SP1 you thought you did with Cole right now.
CSW Rate
This is a combination of the two stats we've already talked about, with SwStr% making up a huge chunk of what CSW is. I feel it's worth checking on though, so here it is:
We once again see Alcantara, Ray, and Cole near the top, but Brandon Woodruff appears in the top five as well.
Woody's spin rates have been down quite a bit in July and he had one of his worst outings of the year last time against the Mets. His strikeout rate has been declining a bit as of late as well, as he's racked up just 33 strikeouts in his last 31.1 innings - again, still a solid number but a decline from the beginning of the year nonetheless. I wouldn't be overly worried about Woodruff, but he is someone that is certainly worth watching closely in his next couple of outings.
Improvers
Some names that have taken strides forward in the stats we mentioned above since June 21st:
German Marquez: He will always have his issues for fantasy purposes pitching in Coors, but he's been really good since 6/21 with a 34% CSW% and a 14.7% SwStr% to go with his 1.17 ERA and 0.43 WHIP.
Aaron Nola: The strikeouts have been plentiful with Nola recently although he's still giving up hits and runs. His SwStr% is elite at 15.2% since 6/21. I'd be targeting Nola in trades.
Kyle Gibson: Nothing about Gibson's season has made any sense to me, but the guy has an 11.6% SwStr% and a ridiculous 10 K/9 since June 21st. I'd still be trying to trade him but look - I'm wrong all the time.
Full Spin Data
Here's a little bonus for you! Here's a searchable data table with average spin rates for every pitch in every month. This is the same data that powers my Tableau dashboard. This won't be updated automatically though, so this data is only current as of July 7th.
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