Pitcher Advanced Metrics Studs and Duds - WAR For Week 13

Connelly examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, whose WAR could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 13.

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I will select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. As we near the All-Star break, I decided it would be a good idea to examine an all-encompassing metric for starting pitchers: wins above replacement (WAR).

WAR was developed as an attempt to measure a player's relative value compared to a replacement-level player, or a readily-available player (think free agent). The calculation is rather complicated and is broken down with further explanation here for those who are interested. The gist of the metric is that the higher a player's WAR is, the more valuable a player they are.

Fantasy managers will have some difficult decisions to make regarding roster moves as they forecast the second half of their seasons. Identifying buy-low and sell-high trade candidates can sometimes be easier with broader, more-encompassing metrics. As such, WAR seems like a perfect metric to look at for Week 13!

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WAR Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 3, 2022.

Carlos Rodon, San Francisco Giants
7-4, 2.62 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 30.3% Strikeout Rate, 2.9 WAR

Fantasy managers were hoping that Carlos Rodon would be able to replicate his 2021 success and stay healthy when he joined the Giants for the 2022 season. So far, he has done both. The 29-year-old lefty has been a key piece of the Giants' rotation and fantasy managers' rosters, compiling a strong 2.62 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 30.3% strikeout rate, and a 2.9 WAR that is third-highest among qualified starters over 15 starts and 86 innings pitched. The production so far has been great, but Rodon has already reached the halfway mark of his career season-high IP. How should fantasy managers approach Rodon for the second half of the season?

Rodon's pitch duo of high-velocity fastball (61.5% usage) and wipeout slider (32.4% usage) have been very effective to this point. He has managed to miss plenty of bats with a 13.8% swinging-strike rate and has an above-average batted-ball profile with a favorable home ballpark. His 2.77 xERA, 3.17 xFIP, and 3.18 SIERA are all slightly higher than his current ERA but support his peripheral numbers.

The only thing to potentially worry about specifically for Rodon is his decreased fastball velocity lately. His average fastball velocity in his last three starts has been 94.8 MPH, 95.2 MPH, and 93.7 MPH. This hasn't seemed to affect him, as he managed eight, 10, and four strikeouts, respectively. There isn't anything clear to suggest that the dip in velocity will continue or that Rodon isn't healthy, but it is something to note.

Rodon has been a true fantasy Stud so far this season. He has pitched as the top version of himself, but the potential for injury and ability to take on a large workload are things fantasy managers have to consider for the second half of the season. I would be fine holding onto Rodon and letting him do his thing. I would also consider selling high on him if fantasy managers are worried, but I would take nothing less than his current face value.

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies
6-4, 2.89 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 28.5% Strikeout Rate, 2.8 WAR

Zack Wheeler's fantasy value instantly came into question when he experienced shoulder soreness to start the season. However, he has put any worries to bed, pitching like a top fantasy starter while maintaining his newly-found strikeout prowess. He has averaged almost 6 IP/GS over 14 starts and has a 2.8 WAR that is just behind Rodon's. Everything is looking great for Wheeler; how has he found his success?

Wheeler has pitched well throughout his career, and that has continued this season. His Stacast profile is strong across the board. He has relied on a four-pitch mix but has continued to use his slider more in favor of his sinker. Wheeler first started using his slider more and his sinker less in 2021 and saw a big jump in strikeout rate. His career average through 2020 was 22.4%, but his 2021 mark was 29.1% and his mark for 2022 has also been strong at 28.5%. His slider has definitely been a better swing-and-miss pitch than his sinker with a career 13.2% swinging-strike rate compared to 7.9%. I'm not sure that this change completely explains his higher strikeout rates, but have no reason to think that the increase can't be sustained.

Wheeler is a pitcher who I was high on coming into 2022 and he has confirmed my thoughts so far, despite starting things off with a sore shoulder. He has avoided hard contact, pitched relatively deep into games, and has continued to strike hitters out. I am not fully confident that his strikeout rate will remain as high as it is, but I would still consider Wheeler to be a fantasy Stud even with some regression.

WAR Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 3, 2022.

Dakota Hudson, St. Louis Cardinals
6-4, 3.83 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 13.3% Strikeout Rate, 0.5 WAR

Dakota Hudson has been an effective starter throughout his career, although his fantasy value has been limited. This trend has been similar this season, as he has a 3.83 ERA but a lackluster 1.35 WHIP, 13.3% strikeout rate, and a 0.5 WAR that is in the bottom 10 of qualified starters. Fantasy managers haven't really relied on Hudson this season, as he is rostered in just 21% of leagues. However, might he have any appeal in deep leagues?

Simply put, there are too many red flags to make Hudson worth the gamble. His WHIP is so high because of an inflated 10.8% walk rate. Putting runners on for free does not bode well for Hudson, as he also allows a lot of hard contact; his 83.4% contact rate is fourth-highest among qualified starters and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both in the bottom 25 percent of baseball. He does manage to keep the ball on the ground with a 6.7-degree launch angle, but I fear that enough hard contact with runners on will eventually catch up to him. Factor in the extremely low strikeout rate and there is even less to like about Hudson fantasy-wise.

Overall, Hudson's low WAR is backed up by a host of underlying metrics. He allows a lot of hard contact, puts runners on for free, and doesn't strike hitters out. Consequently, he has only managed about 5.33 IP/GS this season. He does have a relatively strong offense and a great defense to back him up, but I would be hesitant to rely on Hudson even in favorable streaming matchups.

Zach Plesac, Cleveland Guardians
2-5, 3.86 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 17.0% Strikeout Rate, 0.5 WAR

Zach Plesac has a similar story to Hudson in that he has been an effective pitcher at times in his career but hasn't always been the best fantasy option. He has compiled decent numbers this season with a 3.86 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 17.0% strikeout rate. However, his 0.5 WAR is just as low as Hudson's. Plesac is twice as rostered as Hudson at 42%; does he really have more fantasy value to offer?

Looking under the hood, Plesac more-or-less looks like a parallel version of Hudson but with better control. He allows a lot of contact at 80.8%, and that contact is hard. However, Plesac has an average launch angle of 13.3 degrees, which is even more ominous than Hudson. Plesac's 6.0% walk rate and 17.0% strikeout rate are both relatively better than Hudson but aren't all that impressive overall.

I do think that Plesac has more to offer than Hudson from a fantasy perspective, but I would not be excited to roster him in any leagues. I would consider streaming Plesac in favorable points-league matchups but would stay away from him in roto leagues. One thing to monitor for fantasy managers who do roster Plesac; he has seen an uptick in strikeouts over his last two starts with 13 across 12 IP. He may be able to be sold high (relatively of course) if he can string together one more solid strikeout effort, given his good-looking peripherals.

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