Pitcher Advanced Metrics Studs and Duds - Midseason Review

July 15, 2021

Connelly Doan examines his previous advanced metrics studs and duds articles from the first half of the season to analyze which calls he got right and which he missed on.

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week I have selected an advanced stat, chosen two top performers and two under-performers, and analyzed what those stats could mean for future fantasy output. I have covered both Statcast and Fangraphs metrics to help identify hidden value as well as sell-high candidates.

With the All-Star break upon us, I thought it would be a good time to review some of my takes and analyses from the first half of the season to see what I got right and what I got wrong. The goal of this series is to help fantasy managers make shrewd roster choices, so I have to hold myself accountable for missed takes in addition to taking credit for my correct ones. To make things fun I will be looking exclusively at pitchers who made the All-Star rosters.

Fantasy managers are likely already gearing up for the pivotal second half, but I am going to stop and reflect in the short break we have. Let's take a look at two of my biggest studs and duds takes from this article series so far!

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My Statcast Studs

All stats current as of Sunday, July 11, 2021.

Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers

(7-3, 2.39 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 35.1% Strikeout Rate)

I wrote about Freddy Peralta in Week 5, focusing on his high launch angle. Though he fell into my Duds category for that week, I expressed a lack of concern and suggested that he would continue to be a high-end fantasy starter. Those fantasy managers who did not panic and attempt to sell-high have been greatly rewarded, as Peralta has gone 7-3 with a stellar 2.39 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and 35.1% strikeout rate. Let's take a look back at what I saw in Week 5 and whether things still look similar.

The first thing I noticed was that Peralta wasn't giving up much contact, which helped mitigate his launch angle. This narrative has continued. Peralta's contact rate is the fourth-lowest among qualified pitchers, and his 35.1% strikeout rate, while lower than what it was in Week 5, is still elite. I expressed a bit of a concern over his strikeout rate because at the time he was basically relying on two pitches. Since then, Peralta has incorporated his changeup a bit more (10.0% usage) and the pitch has been effective with a 10.6% swinging-strike rate.

The other thing I noticed was that the contact Peralta had given up was soft. This is also still the case. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are both in the top-30 percent of baseball. His 3.45 SIERA still supports the notion that he has pitched very well despite his high launch angle.

The 25-year-old has already had a bumpy fantasy career given the high expectations fantasy managers initially had for him, but it looks like he has finally arrived. He has been one of baseball's best starters this season and has provided massive fantasy value. Simply put, I'm glad I made the right call on him!

Lance Lynn, Chicago White Sox

(9-3, 1.99 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 28.5% Strikeout Rate)

I wrote about our second pitcher in Week 13 as an ERA-SIERA Dud. Lance Lynn has always amazed me because he relies heavily on fastballs but puts up strong strikeout rates and typically exceeds his SIERA. This season has been the same, with Lynn posting career numbers and outperforming his SIERA by almost several runs. I had come to the conclusion that Lynn should not be sold high unless fantasy managers could get a huge return, and he has rewarded those who stuck with him. Let's look into how Lynn has performed so well to this point. 

Lynn has pretty much been doing what he has always done but to an extreme level. He has relied heavily on his mix of four-seam fastball, cutter, and sinker, which are solid but not overpowering pitches. However, the deceptive nature of his pitches' spin directions have allowed him to post above-average strikeout rates and near double-digit swinging strike rates with all three pitches. He also has a mediocre batted-ball profile with a middling exit velocity and hard-hit rate and an 18.3-degree launch angle. Despite that, he has posted a decent 3.76 SIERA and has massively outperformed that in terms of his ERA.

Identifying studs and duds is all about picking up on patterns, and Lynn has painted a pretty strong pattern over the course of his career. He has been an effective pitcher and a deceptive fantasy value despite his underlying numbers, and that has occurred to an extreme this season. Even if he does regress towards his SIERA, he should still be a very valuable fantasy pitcher. I may not be able to fully explain how he does it, but I will definitely take credit for calling it!

My Statcast Duds

All stats current as of Sunday, July 11, 2021.

Yusei Kikuchi, Seattle Mariners

(6-4, 3.48 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 25.0% Strikeout Rate)

I started with the good and now must turn to the bad. I am giving myself a loss on this pitcher because there was plenty of fantasy hype surrounding him at the beginning of the season but I did not buy in. I wrote about Yusei Kikuchi in Week 8, expressing concern in his high HR/FB rate. I said that while there were some positive signs for him, they were not convincing enough for me to buy into him given his career numbers. He has obviously found success this season, posting a solid 3.48 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, and 25.0% strikeout rate. Were my analyses off, or is there still a chance for Kikuchi to turn into a Stud for me?

Of course I would like to still hold onto the chance of me being right, but to my credit things still don't look all that convincing under the hood for Kikuchi. He doesn't allow many fly balls (27.9%) and his launch angle is pretty low at 6.5 degrees, but he has gotten hit hard. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 17th and 22nd percentiles of baseball, respectively. His 22.2% HR/FB rate is virtually where it was in Week 8, and his 3.90 SIERA, while still pretty good, is about half a run higher than it was. All of this presents a mixed bag, but as I said last time, Kikuchi has never found great success in the big leagues and his overall Statcast metrics don't paint a great picture.

As I have mentioned throughout this article series, there are plenty of pitchers (and baseball players in general) who produce results that are contrary to their underlying numbers. Kikuchi is doing that to a degree and fantasy managers have certainly benefitted from his performance. As such, my take on Kikuchi has not panned out. However, I am going to be stubborn on this one and would not be surprised to see regression come for him in the second half.

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels

(4-1, 3.49 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 30.7% Strikeout Rate)

I was hesitant to admit I was wrong with Kikuchi, but am fully prepared to take the loss on this final pitcher. Shohei Ohtani has been a massive phenomenon across baseball this season and needs no introduction. Ohtani made it into my expected slugging percentage Stud category in Week 7, but I expressed concern in his poor batted-ball profile and high SIERA. All he's done since is perform at an extremely high level both on the mound and with his bat and will be the All-Star of All-Stars this week. Let's take a look at what I saw back in Week 7 and what has happened since.

My issue with Ohtani was that, while his launch angle was fine, he was getting hit too hard and his SIERA was reflecting that. His 10-degree launch angle is still fine and his 89.7-MPH exit velocity and 42.6% hard-hit rate are still towards the bottom of baseball, but his SIERA has dropped to a manageable 3.94, indicating that his batted-ball profile may not be a big of a concern as I thought. Further, Ohtani's batted-ball profile may not be the best, but he has not given up much contact. His 69.0% contact rate would rank as seventh-lowest among qualified pitchers. Plus, his elite 30.7% strikeout rate and 14.0% swinging-strike rate help him avoided batted-balls.

Overall, Ohtani may not have the cleanest pitching advanced metrics, but he has enough positive signs to more-or-less back up his elite peripherals. Beyond the advanced metrics, it is clear that Ohtani has an intangible star factor that can't be questioned. Fantasy managers who went all-in on Ohtani this season have been massively rewarded and should continue to be rewarded for the rest of the season. Unfortunately, I was not one of them.

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