Pitcher Advanced Metrics Studs and Duds - BABIP For Week 6

May 16, 2022

Connelly examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, whose BABIP could make them adds, drops or trade targets for Week 6.

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I will select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. Over the last two weeks, I took a look at different components of pitchers' batted-ball profiles: exit velocity and launch angle. This week, I investigate an outcome of batted-ball profile: batting average on balls in play (BABIP).

BABIP measures a player's batting average on balls hit into the field of play, removing outcomes the defense cannot affect, such as home runs and strikeouts. BABIP is not something the pitcher completely controls. For instance, faster hitters are more likely to beat out slow ground balls for hits, and better defenses may allow fewer hits compared to weaker defenses. That being said, pitchers who are pitching well will likely have lower BABIPs compared to those who are not.

BABIP in relation to batted-ball profile is particularly interesting because it can help identify potential over and under-achievers. We would expect to see pitchers with strong batted-ball profiles have lower BABIPs in general, and vice versa. Any discrepancies may be opportunities to buy low or sell high on pitchers. For reference, the league-average BABIP is typically around .300. Using the underlying metrics can help fantasy managers identify winning moves before their opponents, so let's start looking!

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BABIP Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 15, 2022.

Justin Verlander, Houston Astros
4-1, 1.55 ERA, .168 BABIP

Justin Verlander would not have had a chance of making it into any of my articles in the past because he was simply too much of a fantasy stud to spend additional time on. However, the 39-year-old missed the 2021 season due to Tommy John surgery and fantasy managers were showing some hesitation around buying back into him. The veteran hasn't missed a beat this season, posting a stellar 1.55 ERA, 0.64 WHIP, and 25.4% strikeout rate. Further, his .168 BABIP through his first six starts is the best in baseball. Is Verlander just back to himself?

To get to the point, it looks like Verlander is indeed mostly back to himself, but he has gotten a bit lucky. His batted-ball profile of 88.7-MPH exit velocity, 39.4% hard-hit rate, and 15.1-degree launch angle are about league-average and are more or less in line with his career marks of 87.8 MPH, 33%, and 19 degrees. Despite this, Verlander's current BABIP is much lower than his career mark of .279. Given that his batted-ball profile is not all that different and he gives up a lot of contact (82.9%), I would expect Verlander's BABIP to catch up as the season progresses.

It should not be surprising for fantasy managers to hear that Verlander has relatively out-performed his career marks, even by his standards. That being said, he has been one of fantasy baseball's best pitchers for quite some time, so there really isn't much to worry about. He has seen a decrease in strikeout rate to this point, perhaps due to reduced spin on his pitches, but he still has delivered a respectable mark. Overall, age and injury do not seem to have impacted Verlander, and it looks like he should continue to be a staple in fantasy managers' rotations as long as he can stay healthy, even if he does experience some regression back to his career averages.

Zac Gallen, Arizona Diamondbacks
2-0, 1.05 ERA, .202 BABIP

Zac Gallen experienced multiple injuries in 2021 and saw his overall results regress in 2021, causing some fantasy skepticism coming into 2022. That skepticism has been put to bed for now, as Gallen has compiled a fantastic 1.05 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, and 27.1% strikeout rate to start the season. Part of his success can be attributed to his minuscule .202 BABIP, which is currently second-best in baseball. Fantasy managers who bought into Gallen have been reaping the rewards, but can they expect them to continue?

The good thing is that Gallen did look like a potential higher-end fantasy pitcher in his first two seasons, compiling a 2.75 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 28.5% strikeout rate through his first 152 innings pitched. He has obviously exceeded those marks so far, and his 85.8-MPH exit velocity and 30.6% hard-hit rate are both career-lows, but the fact remains that he has been quite good before. Gallen's Statcast profile backs up his strong performance, as all of his expected stats are among the top in baseball.

Gallen has taken things to another level in 2022, and his numbers from his first two seasons provide evidence that his numbers could be legitimate. Like Verlander, it is unrealistic to expect his ERA and BABIP to remain this low, but all of his underlying stats point to excellent performance overall. I would consider Gallen to be a sell-high candidate for fantasy managers worried about injuries and his 2021 numbers, but I also would be fine with holding onto him and taking his stats if the right offer is not out there.

BABIP Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, May 15, 2022.

Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds
2-4, 5.89 ERA, .324 BABIP

Tyler Mahle put forth a 2021 season that got fantasy managers excited, but he has not continued that in 2022. His 2-4 record, 5.89 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and 24.5% strikeout rate have been disappointing. His poor performance may have to do with his high .324 BABIP. Should fantasy managers give up hope this early in the season, or is there a chance there could be better days ahead for Mahle?

Mahle's BABIP and numbers, in general, seem to indicate that he has gotten unlucky so far. Firstly, the defense behind him is one of the worst in baseball, so he will take a hit in his peripheral numbers regardless of how he pitches. Further, his 17.5-degree launch angle is the highest of his career, but his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 52nd and 62nd percentiles of baseball, respectively. His expected stats are league-average or slightly above, and his 4.05 SIERA also indicates some bad luck.

Mahle has not received favorable luck or results as a whole this season, but there are some promising signs that that luck may change. He can't change the defense behind him, but his batted-ball profile and SIERA suggest that he has been pitching better than his peripherals indicate. His last two starts have been strong as well, leading me to suggest Mahle as a buy-low candidate.

Kyle Wright, Atlanta Braves
3-2, 2.79 ERA, .301 BABIP

Kyle Wright is one of the many young, exciting pitchers the Braves have brought into their system over the past several years, but he hasn't delivered quality results until this season. The 26-year-old has put together a 2.79 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 28.1% strikeout rate over his first seven starts and 42 innings pitched. However, his .301 BABIP is among the highest in the league. Can he continue to provide strong results, or will his BABIP catch up to him?

At this point, everything but Wright's BABIP points to success. His Statcast profile is not quite as strong as Gallen's, but he has above-average marks across the board. His batted-ball profile seems strong and his 3.07 SIERA supports this. Further, he has done a nice job overall mixing in his five pitches, leading to his high strikeout rate and low contact rate of 73.6%. He hasn't gotten great results with his sinker and slider, but he has located them well, so I would not be surprised to see him get better results with those pitches over time.

Wright has finally come around as a fantasy contributor this season and has a lot under the hood to back this up. His BABIP is higher, but everything else looks good, including his batted-ball profile. I would expect Wright's BABIP to come down a little, but I'm not concerned with it, given how well he has performed with his higher BABIP.

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