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Pierre Camus provides his bold fantasy football predictions for the 2020 NFL season. Which QB, RB, WR, and TE will break out or bust?
This marks the fifth installment of my bold predictions for RotoBaller. Boy, how things have changed since my first bold predictions column. We were happily oblivious to Coronavirus. My preseason prediction about Colin Kaepernick was purely football related, just weeks before he became known for something other than his passer rating. RGIII was getting set to revive his career and the Cleveland Browns franchise simultaneously. Yeah, that was just five years ago.
Looking back just a year ago, I fared pretty well except for the whole O.J. Howard outscoring George Kittle thing (remember: BOLD predictions). Oh, and the Josh Rosen one was more of a joke. No, really.
This year, we have a new set of issues and a new crop of players hoping to turn their teams, and our fantasy franchises, into champions. Going out on a limb might make more sense than ever seeing as how we don't know what to expect from anything in 2020! That said, here's my best shot.
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Cam Akers is a Top-10 Running Back
If you've read anything I've written or watched/heard any podcast this offseason where Akers' name was mentioned, you know my take here. I really want to say he'll be top-five but that could affect my end-of-year accuracy score...
As someone who does way too many drafts, I try to diversify when possible and not oversaturate my rosters with the same players. Akers is my exception this year because I feel he truly has "league-winner" written all over him. Rather than explaining why a former five-star recruit and second-round draft pick could be a viable NFL running back, I'll speak to the point - he is grossly undervalued.
Cam Akers ? pic.twitter.com/utODzzQLlW
— Bruce Matson (@MetricScout) August 25, 2020
While everyone is drafting Clyde Edwards-Helaire at his absolute ceiling (he's now a top-five pick in some drafts for God's sake), Akers is going in the fifth or sixth round in most 12-team leagues around the RB30 range. If the rationale for keeping him that low is that he'll have to beat out Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown, then I assume many people didn't follow the Rams last year. Here's how they fared, which is what prompted the team to take Akers:
It wasn't a lingering injury or an anemic offense to blame for Henderson's poor rookie showing. He just isn't cut out to be a primary ballcarrier. Blame the offensive line but Akers is used to running behind far worse throughout his college career as Florida State regularly ranked among the worst O-lines in the NCAA. Akers has the speed to shake defenders and doesn't go down on first contact.
“I missed my chance to play wit @thereal_cam3 at FSU but he easily becoming one of my favorite teammates already!! Imma let y’all know, HE A MF DAWG!! We gettin after it daily!!” - @jalenramsey on rookie RB Cam Akers ? pic.twitter.com/hBUq2HNsGd
— LaRamsFans (@LaRamsFansOnIG) August 21, 2020
There is zero chance the likes of D'Andre Swift or Raheem Mostert outproduces him and 99.995% chance he brings back positive return on investment. The fact Darrell Henderson tweaked his hamstring the other day just solidifies that Akers should be scooped up as soon as possible.
Zack Moss Outscores Devin Singletary
I've never been on the Singletary hype train and I'm not starting now. He's a fine committee back but that's about it and it's clear that's what he'll be again this year. Don't believe me, take Buffalo GM Brandon Beane's word for it.
"I think more of the goal line and things like that as we did with Frank last year, you'll see Zack do. I think Devin will do a similar role that he had."
This works in Moss' favor more than you might think. Dispute Frank Gore's greatness all you want, but he was a reliable chain mover and held onto the primary ballcarrier role even at age 36.
So pencil Singletary in for just under 200 carries and 30 receptions. If he manages to maintain his 5.1 yards per carry average from last year that still puts him under 1,000 rushing yards along with 250 receiving yards.
If Moss takes over Gore's workload and runs for a league-average 4.4 yards per carry, we're looking at approximately 750 rushing yards with something closer to 200 receiving yards since Gore's receiving numbers dropped precipitously the past two seasons and Moss should see more targets.
Now, the key - touchdowns. Singletary lagged behind Gore in the red zone and we've already heard the team's plans for Moss to resume that role.
It's tough to project scores but it's safe to say I expect Moss to get more chances. All we need is for Singletary to decline in his rushing average, much like Alvin Kamara did in his second year, and Moss to perform as we expected before the NFL combine fiasco. Remember, pro production is not about 40 time, it's about opportunity.
Jerick McKinnon Finishes with 150+ Points in PPR
Tarik Cohen, Duke Johnson, Sony Michel. All players who disappointed in 2019. All of them reached the 150-point threshold in full-PPR leagues.
The reason they were considered busts had to do with expectations. Michel should have continued his playoff success from the previous year and taken over the primary RB role in New England (ha ha, as if that's a thing). Duke Johnson finally had his chance to be the guy in Houston! Then they brought in Carlos Hyde and gave him all the carries. Tarik Cohen, well, he was on the Bears.
All that's to say that a top-30 RB isn't a league-winner and could be disappointing if drafted to be a weekly RB2/Flex. If you can get such a player in the last round of your draft or for free off waivers, you should absolutely jump at the chance. McKinnon, health willing, could be that player.
The Niners will deploy a RBBC as usual. With Matt Breida gone, Jet simply steps into that role.
That's not even his main appeal. At last count, the number of healthy receivers in San Francisco was -4. McKinnon is a natural pass-catcher and probably has the best hands of the skill players who will take the field in San Fran. He will get his share of receptions from the backfield and, if Kyle Shanahan listens to my sage advice, could work out of the slot. He's bigger and faster than Hunter Renfrow and Cole Beasley, so why not?
All told, McKinnon has tremendous upside with no risk at his non-existent draft price. And he happens to be an athletic freak too. 'member?
Mike Gesicki and Chris Herndon are Top-10 TEs
My breakout tight end pick, Mike Gesicki of the soon-to-be 2020 AFC Champion Miami Dolphins, has seen his ADP creep closer to the top-10 range, currently ranked TE14 by industry consensus. Surely I'm not the only one that suspects a big season could be in store. For that reason, I'm doubling down with Herndon as well. Yes, two AFC East tight ends will be fantasy relevant and neither one is named Gronk.
Speaking of, I believe these two athletic studs will outproduce Rob Gronkowski as well as Jared Cook, Austin Hooper, and Hayden Hurst, all of whom are being drafted earlier. All the ingredients are there. Not only are these two of the fastest tight ends on NFL rosters, they are primed for third-year breakouts on offenses that have precious few options at wide receiver.
The Dolphins saw their WR3 and WR4, Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns, opt out of the season while Preston Williams is recovering from ACL surgery. That leaves DeVante Parker and a bunch of question marks. Regardless of who is QB for the Phins, Gesicki should be peppered with targets all year long and get the chance to turn his truly elite athleticism into production.
The Jets are counting on a possible breakout from Breshad Perriman and early contributions from rookie Denzel Mims, who unexpectedly fell down draft boards, to complement Jamison Crowder. That's not a stable corps of wideouts and both Perriman and Mims are nursing injuries during camp. If Herndon simply stays healthy, he should be a featured receiver. Adam Gase has said, "He's a unicorn type of player, you don't see a lot of these players that can do all three phases of the game." Jets beat writer Tyler Calvaruso recently declared that the Jets need to emphasize the tight end more. Hell, the Jets worked out Donte Moncrief the other day, if that doesn't tell you about their WR situation.
I won't go so far as to call either guy a league-winner unless you're in a TE Premium league but if you wait on tight end, target these two. Or both.
Allen Lazard Outscores Stefon Diggs
A little sleeper/bust combo action here. I'm not way down on Diggs but have reservations at his current ADP of 59 overall (WR28).
Stefon Diggs got his wish to leave Minnesota but doesn't necessarily arrive in a fantasy-friendlier environment. Free-agent wide receivers switching teams grab headlines but rarely produce better in new situations. Even bona fide WR1 types like Odell Beckham Jr. can have trouble adjusting to a new environment. It wasn't a big problem for John Brown, but that's the other issue - he's already the WR1 there. On a run-first team that had the fifth-fewest pass attempts in the NFL and averaged 204.8 passing yards per game, sixth-lowest in the NFL, there's only so much he can be expected to do.
Lazard is also the WR2 for his team but instead of Josh Allen throwing him the ball, he's got Aaron Rodgers. Allen has surpassed Rodgers on the fantasy totem pole but that's due to his rushing ability. Rodgers didn't have his best year throwing the ball, completing 62% of his passes. That's still better than Allen, whose 58.8% Comp% ranked 32nd.
Rodgers has shown he trusts Lazard, which means a lot. He started the final two games of the season, seeing nine and eight targets respectively. With Devin Funchess opting out and no new receivers drafted, the competition is scarce. Lazard doesn't have blazing speed but his 6'5" frame makes him an easy target, especially in the red zone. WR3 upside at a WR6 price? Yes, please. At an ADP of 179, I'm grabbing him everywhere. As far as Diggs, I'm simply waiting a round or two and taking John Brown instead.
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