X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

PGA DFS: Vegas Report - The CJ Cup

Lanto Griffin kept his spectacular momentum rolling at the Houston Open, capturing the first title of his career. The life of a journeyman on tour can be difficult, and it is perhaps explained no better than by Griffin's story. In 2017, the American had made just $4,800 through 10 events and told his agent that he could no longer go on with the grind of professional golf. Becoming more and more in debt because of travel expenses, Griffin decided to see a sports psychologist to try and get his mind back on track. Soon following his first meeting with Dr. Greg Cartin, Griffin shot a 65 to make it out of local U.S. Open qualifying, eventually losing in sectionals to Tom Hoge, who fired a shot to three-feet on the first playoff hole to defeat him. However, Griffin was able to ride that momentum into what eventually salvaged his career.

After making his first cut in five events, the now 108th-ranked player in the world headed to Nashville with a new drive and motivation. Going into that Sunday, Griffin started the day tied for second but slipped to a share of fifth with eight holes to go. A massive rain delay halted the tournament and threatened to cancel the fourth round entirely, which was something Griffin was desperately hoping to happen because his current placement would secure him enough money to qualify for the Web.com Tour. "Cartin and I are texting like mad," said Griffin. "With 23 guys within three shots of the lead, I'm worried about how many places I could drop." Cartin's message to him was simple but direct, "Thoughts aren't real. Dwelling on what could happen is futile." Listening to his doctor's orders, Griffin went back out after the rain delay ended with no added pressure applied to himself and won the event for $99,000, setting him back on track to continue his golf dream.

There is a fine line in sports between winning and losing, and sometimes perseverance and a little luck is all someone needs to break out of their current condition. With that mentality in mind, let's head over to the CJ Cup to try and get our season back on course.

2020 CJ Cup

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course.

The Club at Nine Bridges

7,241 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bentgrass

A 2001 design by Golf Plan USA, The Club at Nine Bridges is a challenging, undulating track that requires scrambling to be successful. Measuring in as a 7,241-yard Par 72, the fairways feature decent width but can be challenging due to doglegs and nasty rough.

With the course being on a mountain and a small island, winds will be very INTENSE. Weather is always tricky to forecast because it can be ever-changing, but it is especially challenging to determine with all the uncertain factors of mountain/island golf.

Water comes into play on four holes, and the greens can be firm and fast when the wind dries out the facility. The course is heavily bunkered with 110 sand traps, making scrambling even more essential than it would have otherwise been under just windy conditions. Golfers will need to hit greens in regulation to find scoring opportunities and will need to salvage par when they do find trouble.

CJ Cup

#1 Jason Day 30/1

DK Price $9,500, FD Price $10,400

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 8.4%

I am not a believer in adding tons of people to my betting card just to try and hit a winner if the math doesn't add up to do so. Yes, I would provide myself with better chances to find success, but there has to be some accountability on the writers' part not to overexpose themselves or the readers' bankroll.

If we are viewing this tournament from a mathematical perspective, it is going to be difficult to find too much of an edge on the surface. The CJ Cups' no-cut nature does give a boost to the stars in the field because there are only 78 players that are currently slated to tee it up, but perhaps even a bigger key is the number of options that play primarily on the Asian Tours. That reduces the field down by about 13 percent, and if you add to that an additional 5-10 players that just frankly aren't in solid enough form to compete, you begin to narrow this field down substantially more.

All those deductions start putting us into a position where the cream should rise to the top, but bankroll susceptibility can add up quickly if too aggressive of an approach is exercised. I'm going to take several fliers who I believe have under-the-radar value, but I'm going to treat this event as more of a pass and avoid any aggressive betting routes this week.

It is an understatement to say that Jason Day has not been good as of late, only recording one top-10 finish in his previous 10 tournaments, but the Aussie has shown the ability to strike out of nowhere during his career -especially when he is fresh and rejuvenated. During his last two victories on the PGA Tour, the 27th-ranked player in the world has had at least three weeks off in both situations, which is where he finds himself this week.

Day's game should translate nicely to Nine Bridges Golf Club, evident by his two previous top-11 results at the venue, and tracks that require sand saves, quality putting and the propensity to create shots in the wind have always favored the 31-year-old over his counterparts. This is obviously a shot-in-the-dark wager with Day's form slightly uncertain, but the price is fair to take that chance.

#2 Marc Leishman 30/1

DK Price $9,200, FD Price $9,900

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 11.7%

From one quality Aussie in the wind to another, Marc Leishman will fly into South Korea overlooked after a bumpy 2019 campaign. However, if we look at just his most recent form, it appears as if the 25th-ranked player in the world has gotten his game flowing in the right direction.

Three straight top-20 results if you exclude his withdrawal at the Greenbrier, including a third-place finish the last time he teed it up at the Safeway Open, has the 35-year-old ready to pounce towards the winner's circle. Leishman is a quality ball striker that can handle the wind, making him an intriguing value in a condensed field at odds of 30/1.

#3 Sergio Garcia 30/1

DK Price $9,100, FD Price $9,800

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 13%

Welcome to the good, the bad and the ugly when it comes to Sergio Garcia. If he isn't destroying golf courses or imploding in other ways during his round, we tend to get pretty good golf from the Spaniard that goes overlooked because of his capacity for explosions.

Since retaining his PGA Tour card at the Northern Trust in August by making his required 15th start of the year, Garcia has quietly put together a share of 23rd, a victory and a share of seventh in his three starts this season over in Europe. As is evident by my selections this weekend, I am content in peppering a few choices in this 30/1 range and hoping to strike gold on a player that is marginally overpriced in the market. Garcia fits that narrative perfectly, so let's hope he can keep his positive momentum rolling at Nine Bridges.

#4 Kevin Tway 125/1

DK Price $6,800, FD Price $7,900

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 6.0%

One of the ways I tend to pinpoint longshots is to run a statistical model over at Fantasynational.com where I incorporate a unique set of traits that will be important for the week. Most of these combinations result in very unusual pairings, so I don't necessarily try to place too much emphasis on it for all wagers - although I must admit it has been a dependable way to find value down the board.

For the CJ Cup this week, I ran a model that consolidated only rounds on Bentgrass greens with moderate/severe wind to see if I could locate something that everyone else might be missing. I'm not so sure if it necessarily resulted in a completely unusual outlook, but it did spit out something that could be worthwhile about Kevin Tway.

In Tway's previous 50 rounds under those parameters mentioned above, he graded out as the second-best golfer in the field for me, ranking inside the top 20 in strokes gained around the green, sand saves, three-putt avoidance, strokes gained on par-fives, bogey avoidance and scrambling. The American hasn't been great at this event in the past, but 125/1 does place him as a bet that is yielding long-term profitability with my numbers.

*** For what it is worth, Kevin Tway and Jason Day were the only two players to place inside the top 20 for all the statistics I placed emphasis on.

Key Stats: Scrambling 25%, Three-Putt Avoidance 20%, Strokes Gained Around The Green 15%, Sand Saves 15%, Strokes Gained: Par-Five 15% and Bogey Avoidance 10%

50% Stats/30% Form/20% Course History


Head-to-Head Play of the Week

No head-to-head wager this week. Will resume at the Zozo Championship

2020 Head-to-Head Record (2-1-1)

+0.85 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

Tournament

Head-to-Head Bet

Bet

My Picks Finish

Opponent Finish

Result

Total

Sanderson Farms

Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

T18 (-11)

MC (+4)

Win

1.00

Safeway Open

Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee

1.10 Units to Win 1.00

T7 (-12)

MC (+2)

Win

1.00

Shriners Open

Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson

1.15 Units to Win 1.00

MC (-1)

61 (-9)

Loss

-1.15

Houston Open

Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley

1.12 Units to Win 1.12

MC (+3)

MC (+3)

Push

0

2020 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

None through three events.

 

Career Record: 

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets
(16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results):

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

 

Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks

POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Moises Ballesteros

Riding An 11-Game Hit Streak
Victor Mesa Jr.

Starting Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event