PGA DFS Vegas Report Spencer Aguiar's Betting Picks for the Houston Open(Premium Content)

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Make sure to follow me on Twitter @Teeoffsports to get my updated picks as the tournament progresses, and if you don't have that as one of your social media platforms, here is a link for my betting card weekly. Plays will always get updated as soon as they are placed and will include outright, head-to-head and top-20 recommendations. My free DFS column, which includes my top plays for the week and a list of options I will be fading, can be found here. And if you ever have any questions about a particular bet, player in the field or anything golf-related, be sure to contact me on Twitter.

Other Houston Open Content

Be sure to get an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings PGA picks, FanDuel PGA picks, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. Be sure to also read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

Memorial Park

7,432 Yards - Par 70 - Greens: Bermuda

Measuring marginally over 7,400 yards, Memorial Park is widely regarded as one of the top municipal golf courses in the world, something that makes the 2019 renovation of the track that much more impressive since Tom Doak was able to remodel the layout and get it back up and running for the nearly 60,000 patrons that visit the grounds each year. Doak was accompanied on the project by former world number one Brooks Koepka, and the purpose of the rebuild was to create a challenging tournament venue that could provide dramatic lead changes down the stretch.

We see that with six holes yielding either a 21% bogey rate or 20% birdie percentage on the back nine, but the primary blueprint to one of Doak's designs will always be his distinctive green complexes. That remains front and center for the week because of the nine percent increase in dispersion of scoring when it comes to strokes gained around the green, and players have mentioned how failing to get a putter in hand can present this ping-pong nature of going back and forth on this unique contextual setup. The 23.4% output of pertinent scoring over the past two years in around-the-green importance is about as high as I have ever encountered for a non-Augusta National comp in the space, and it highlights this need for golfers that can provide an overall skillset to take advantage of the demanding layout.

Large specimen oak trees are positioned to cause issues if you are wayward off the tee, and there are weird quirks throughout, including a clamshell landing area on the par-four 10th that will create problems if you go inside of it. Add that fact to a ravine that runs through a handful of holes, green complexes that produce a 3.8% reduction in GIR percentage and fairways that are 3.1 yards narrower than average, and you get this diabolical test that will reward quality tee-to-green play, all while punishing any shot that is not adequately accounted for when it comes to the complex nature of the course.

Let's Look At The Stats

Key Stats

• Weighted Tee-To-Green (25%) - When we remove putting from the equation, the standard distribution for tee-to-green tends to be about 23.6% off the tee, 53.8% approach and 22.6% around the green. Those totals are widely regarded in my model as the expected dispersion metrics to follow if looking at a course where we have no concept of long-term information, but with two years of data for us to call on this week, there are some massive disparities in how I recalculated my data to mimic Memorial Park. The first thing worth noting is that off-the-tee experiences over a five percent decrease here versus a standard test, but the unique variable that comes into play is how distance and accuracy both see significant boosts with my corollary totals. That signifies a roundabout way that we might want to handicap off-the-tee metrics, which is one of the reasons I recalculated a total driving category to look at 55% accuracy and 45% distance. I then merged that number into its own "off the tee" standalone total and recombined the expected tee-to-green weights to look like the following: 22.5% off the tee, 42.5% approach and 35% around the green. That provides the substantial short-game increase we are looking for in our builds and does so in a fashion that equally spreads out the expected dispersion metrics.
• Bermuda Putting (5%) - As everyone knows, I am not a big believer in putting statistics meaning a ton from a macro sense, but I did incorporate in five percent to try and marginally filter in golfers that would see positive boosts on this specific grass type. More than anything, this is an excellent category to get unique and highlight quality Bermuda putters, but I wouldn't get carried away with overly weighing the data in my model if you make a copy.
• SG: Total Bermuda (10%) - This metric completely encapsulates all strokes gained outputs on Bermuda over a two-year sample size, meaning putting does re-enter the mix a second time, and the breakdown of the data mimics this week's venue over a random test.
• SG: Total Wind (7.5%) - Early reports forecast about 10-15 MPH throughout the four days of scheduled play. It wasn't enough for me to do anything outlandish in my model past the seven or eight percent that I used, but Texas gusts are usually prevalent, and I preferred looking at the results of my data from a broad sense over trying to guess weekend tee times for the field. That doesn't do us any good outside of daily contests, and we can always add more to this category if anything changes.
• SG: Total Over 7,400 Yards (10%) - Memorial Park is a long Par 70, with five par-fours stretching between 490 to 529 yards. The ability to find fairways will be critical since the width of this course is 3.1 yards more narrow than average, and I always like using this category to highlight similarities between properties at their most basic level. Sure, there are some issues when comparing different setups, even if the length directly intertwines, but the ability to use outside-of-the-box derivatives that many users won't consider during their research is worth the risk since nothing indicates we can't dive deeper into the examples we have on hand. For that reason, I condensed the totals down even further to include only Par 70 venues that stretched over 7,400 yards, and I made sure each track had five or more par-four holes over 490 yards. That was the best way to ensure we got the most out of the information. 
• Weighted Par-Three (7.5%) - I compared around the green and mid-to-long iron play to overall birdie or better percentage. Essentially, I wanted the proximity ranges players will face for the week and then used that information to extrapolate the data and project scores on these five holes daily.
• Weighted Par-Four (10%) - The easiest par-fours will be the 406-yard 13th and 440-yard fifth. Each will feature a 22% to 27.6% birdie or better percentage, but the difficulty ramps up from there, where we see five of the six most challenging holes take place between 490 to 529 yards.
• Par-Five Birdie or Better (17.5%) - Even though we only have three par-fives, the average production for top-10 finishers combines to be about 0.04 strokes below the other 15 holes in expected strokes gained for high-end golfers on the leaderboard. That suggests these three situations are as critical to success as everything else players will face daily.
• Weighted Total Scoring (7.5%) - Consider this the most basic category of the mix. I took birdie or better percentage for each player and blended that in with my two-year bogey avoidance returns at a 55/45 split.

Outright Options To Consider - Houston Open

It is one of those tournaments where books are trying to push bettors away from the top of the board by giving us increased hold percentages. That is a fancy way of saying the high-end golfers have seen too much reduction in their odds to warrant making them long-term value plays, and it provides a headache from a betting sense when the implied probability given exceeds the projected win equity of my model.

Options like Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns and Aaron Wise should be your legitimate favorites to capture the title, but the 31.31% implied win probability for the event that casinos have attached to that trio is where the problem enters the mix. In theory, the remaining 130+ golfers should have a 68.69% win rate, and that is before we even get to the other names near the top of Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama, Russell Henley, Taylor Montgomery and Maverick McNealy - five golfers that carry an additional 22%. Let's talk a little about what that means in an easier-to-understand sense and see if we can do anything to combat a board that is set against us finding success.

Essentially, every wager you make has somewhere between a zero to 100 percent expected win rate, but the actual hold percentage refers to the portion of the money the house keeps for every dollar wagered. I am running this through a limited sample size of books, but the 150.11% hold percentage for the week suggests that your average shop is taking in an extra 50.11% upfront. An increase is to be expected to allow shops to have their built-in edge, but it becomes challenging when it gets enhanced at the very top of a board and mimics my thoughts of who the favorites are for the week. That is only sometimes the case with how I reconstruct my model, but the nearly 25% win equity return that I have for Scheffler, Burns and Wise indicates we are 6.31% below what the casino deemed proper. That isn't going to be enough when each contributes to that discrepancy, and while I love Wise's potential to win this event, I would still need closer to 20/1 to pull the trigger.

Remember, it is a 52-week season, and we aren't required to force action when it isn't conducive. I am going into this week with the mindset that we are missing out on the most likely group of winners by taking a more cautious approach to help facilitate our long-term edge, but the nature of the board does naturally decrease any advantage that we are hoping to find.

Jason Day (33/1) BetMGM

We can harp on the lack of value throughout the entire board, or we can get unique in our research, which is what I did to make Jason Day an intriguing value for us to consider this weekend at the Houston Open.

Day's resurgence to begin the 2022-2023 season hasn't gone unnoticed by my model, but the long-term duration I use to run my information does hurt his upside when we get technical, something I decided to handle myself when I went in and removed the two-year running data that I operate for every golfer. It is important to stress that hand-controlling the metrics for individual players will always be a dangerous game to play, but the historical profile of the Australian does indicate that he was a major championship winner that ascended to world number one when providing his very best. It felt irresponsible to view his form at the most rudimentary level, especially considering injuries ravaged his career for a few seasons and helped to forge a statistical depiction that might not hold accuracy anymore if his health has turned around.

Look, I am not unequivocally saying Day is back, although the metrics would bear fruit to that statement being factual. The 34-year-old ranks first in my model from an upside perspective on long courses over 7,400 yards, and his three straight top-21 finishes would be the first time he has accomplished that feat since the 2020 season. All of that makes me bullish in taking a stance at this 33/1 price tag if the form has returned to any semblance of what he is capable of as a player, and in gambling, you need to trust your math if you want to be successful. I had this adequately priced at closer to 25/1, generating eight points of value on a golfer that has shown tangible win equity in the past.

Taylor Pendrith (60/1) Bet365

We have nine golfers in this field ranked inside the top 30 for all three critical scoring metrics that I reweighed for the Houston Open. The majority will end up being your expected favorites in Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Aaron Wise, Taylor Montgomery, Hideki Matsuyama, Sam Burns and Jason Day, but there are two outliers to the mix that we will get to over these subsequent two recommendations.

The first is Taylor Pendrith, who has an eclectic profile that shows high-end potential because of his total driving and projected scoring, but it wouldn't be an accurate depiction of a 60/1 golfer if we didn't highlight his tumultuous short game, two areas where he ranks outside of the top 50 when it comes to Bermuda putting and strokes gained around the green.

In fairness, those flaws feel common when talking about a longshot that isn't a perfect stylistic fit for the course, but my model had the Canadian priced closer to 48/1 because of his quality returns in multiple avenues of my sheet. Pendrith's combination of how he ranked in par-four and par-five scoring placed him sixth in this field, and his recent improvement with his irons boosted him up 33 spots above his baseline projection over his last 24 rounds.

Keith Mitchell (70/1) Bet365

Of golfers listed better than 150/1 on the slate, only Gary Woodland has a more extreme trajectory in my model when comparing upside versus safety than Keith Mitchell. That means the potential win equity alone should make us consider choices like Woodland and Mitchell when making a futures wager, even if the bottom-end performances are producing exceptionally high missed cut percentages for the week. I wouldn't consider that a bad thing in the outright market since a second-place finish is as good as a missed cut, but I bring it up to let everyone know that the scope of how this wager performs will be drastic in its approximation.

Mitchell ranks first in this field in total driving geared toward accuracy, a metric that molds nicely next to his sixth-place grade in strokes gained on Bermuda over the past two years, and his wind expertise is notable since it provides another top 10 mark for us to use for the week.

It has been five months since Mitchell cracked the first page of the leaderboard on Sunday evening, but the long-term expectation out of Memorial Park that my model believes is there for the American is noteworthy from an upside sense. His 32-spot improvement in weighted proximity has my model showing the 30-year-old as a top 10 win equity choice on the board, and his 70/1 outright price offers value with him placing him 26th out of 132 golfers in what is being presented in the space.

Dean Burmester (80/1) Bet365

I had to reduce some of Dean Burmester's metrics across the board to make them more realistic since the limited sample size of information that we have on the rookie is propelling him up my model at an alarming rate, but the biggest takeaway that I found while doing that is how his Bermuda putting and overall scoring numbers held steady in all iterations of my sheet.

Burmester ranked first in birdie or better percentage and bogey avoidance, and even when I drastically shifted his data to get away from that output, it was still nearly impossible to remove him from the top of those areas because of his strong returns to begin the season.

It is a very similar thought process that we just talked about with Jason Day on the opposite end of the spectrum, but if 15% reduction marks can't expel him from the top 10 of my model, I feel like I would be doing a disservice by taking a more assertive stance than that when I haven't regressed totals by more than 15 percent in the past five years of running my model.

In theory, we can only do so much to discredit Burmester's projections, which means we must trust what the model is telling us at some point. If we were talking about a 20/1 golfer, I would be more hesitant, but the fact that it is an 80/1 price suggests that we shoot for the stars on a limited information profile and hope that my sheet has figured something out over the rest of the industry.

Sebastian Munoz (80/1) Bet365

I worry Sebastian Munoz might lack the high-end results needed to win this event, but consider this a number grab that allows us to gain 10 points of value.

My projection for the Columbian in the first-round leader market is one that we will get into later this week because that feels like the optimal path to realize the full potential of his upside, but Munoz does his best work with his driver, par-four scoring and play in windy conditions, and the hope here is that gusts turn this into a much more penal contest than what we see currently projected in the forecast.

Options That Barely Missed: Aaron Wise (18/1)

Let's try to become invested on Thursday night if Wise gets off to a slow start since we have more than enough room to jump back into the mix after risking only 0.67 units pre-event. Usually, I try to keep things under 1.25 units, meaning any opening can still be attacked by us throughout the event. 

Movement 

There has been a lot of movement this week. It is hard to do a real article and avoid some of these shifts in price, but here is where you can still find some similar prices if you shop around:

Pendrith 50/1 - BetMGM & DraftKings (I am fine with this price).
Day 28/1 - BetMGM (It was mostly a number grab at 33/1. That is a play I mentioned on Twitter yesterday).
Mitchell 60/1 - FanDuel (No issues with the new price. I had under 50/1 as proper).
Munoz 70/1 BetMGM- Ehh. That is what I had as proper, but I am going to keep it for tracking since I don't want to lose a play from the article.
Burmester 66/1 BetMGM - I had 50/1 as proper.

I am going to keep the Day price since I tweeted it yesterday, but I have no issue using this for the week when it comes to tracking. It is essentially a 0.08-unit shift between where the numbers were and where they are now to get to where we were. I wouldn't worry too much about having to add an extra tenth of a unit here and there!

First-Round Leader

Top-40 Market 

Davis Thompson T40 +150 BetRivers, -110 FanDuel, +110 DraftKings

• We have a limited sample size of information, but Davis Thompson has blown away any outlook we could have imagined to begin his career. 
• Two top-12 finishes since the Fortinet in three attempts this season, and his GIR rank in my model places him first overall. 
• You could say there are some concerns about weighted proximity or his projected par-four scoring, but we don't have to look any further than most of the prices listed in the space for him to come top 40 to realize +150 is too high for the week. 
• I will bet on the quality results he has shown us over the past two months and take the 50 points of value BetRivers is offering at his inflated price tag. 

Alex Smalley T40 +165 FanDuel, -110 Betrivers, -110 DraftKings

Head-to-Head Play of the Week 

None

Standard Matchups

Davis Riley -111 over Mackenzie Hughes (BetMGM)

It feels like a spot where Mackenzie Hughes' course history and current form are both severely boosting his projection in the market. That is something we need to be aware of from a betting perspective, but books have overreacted to his recent run, providing us a chance to take him on with a golfer like Davis Riley, who my model believes is a top 25 caliber player in this field in all iterations.

Hughes' recent iron play could prove to be a problem when we look at his 90th-place mark for weighted proximity and 110th-place grade for GIR percentage, and it doesn't help that his total driving ranks 102nd in this field when I recalculated the data to fit Memorial Park. I will do a standard one-unit play here since course history has no impact on future results at this track, but for all the head-to-head wagers we have hit over the past few weeks, this is my lowest ranked of the mix. It doesn't mean it won't win since there is still an opportunity to take on Hughes at what my model deems proper, but I would temper expectations some since I only have about a 3% implied probability edge. That means that anything up to about -124 would still show value.

I know that is a very negative stance on a wager I am taking, and I don't mean for it to be since there is still value on the surface, but these head-to-head wagers are typically something I don't release unless I have a 30-point advantage. It is one of the reasons I have been able to hit at over a 60% clip through 700 plays, but be aware there might not be as much strength here as you would typically get on a wager of mine in this market.

2022 Top Head-to-Head Record (11-5-0)

+6.96 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Year-To-Date Pre-Tournament Head-To-Head Results (46-25-5)

+17.64 Units Year-To-Date From Pre-Tournament H2H Bets

2022 In-Tournament Head-to-Head Record (74-44-14)

+24.93 Units Year-To-Date From Premium In-Tournament H2H Bets

2022 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Yearly Record

2017 Golf Betting:
Top Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.03 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won (+54.26) 194.24% ROI

2018 Golf Betting:
Top Head to Head Bets (37-18-2) +26.64 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won (+55.88) 51.70% ROI

2019 Golf Betting:
Top Head to Head Bets (16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won (+27.743) 40.70% ROI

2020 Golf Betting:
Top Head to Head Bets (13-14-2) -1.46 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Bryson DeChambeau U.S. Open (33/1)
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship (30/1)
Sungjae Im Honda Classic (35/1)
Patrick Reed WGC-Mexico (50/1)
Cameron Smith Sony Open (55/1)
Overall Units Won (+37.015) 20.21% ROI

2021 Golf Betting:
Top Head to Head Bets (17-13-1) +1.97 Units
Outright Winners (10)
Daniel Berger Pebble Beach (18/1)
Max Homa Genesis Invitational (66/1)
Justin Thomas Players Championship (22/1)
Billy Horschel Match Play (150/1)
Cameron Davis Rocket Mortgage (150/1)
Seamus Power Barbasol Championship (20/1)
Kevin Kisner Wyndham Championship (40/1)
Tony Finau Northern Trust (60/1)
Patrick Cantlay BMW Championship (25/1)
Rory McIlroy CJ Cup (20/1)
Overall Units Won (+68.846) 14.22% ROI

Career Record (Excluding 2022 Season Results)

Top Head-to-Head Bets (93-55-9) +43.66 Units 
Other Head-to-Head Bets (81-88-9) -4.82 Units
In-Tournament Head-to-Head Bets (125-82-22) +26.27 Units 
Outright Winners (30)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
2020 - 19
2021 - 32
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41
2020 - 41
2021 - 60 

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