PGA DFS Vegas Report - AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

February 5, 2020

Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas golf betting lines to find the best PGA DFS sleepers for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. His top under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel lineup picks are included.

Welcome back to the PGA DFS Vegas Report. Webb Simpson stole the trophy away from Tony Finau late on Sunday, sinking an incredible 17-foot birdie putt on the 72nd hole to force a playoff. The American then hit practically the same putt from a shorter distance on the first playoff hole to hoist the title. The victory was Simpson's sixth on tour but was just his first since winning the 2018 Players Championship.

While Finau continued his disappointing display of Sunday golf, it has been ironic that most of his shortcomings haven't been his own doing. I could argue that conservative play and an unwillingness to go for shots have held him back from accomplishing more in his career, but Finau had this event locked up nine out of 10 times by just paring in from 16 to 18.

We were able to connect on Simpson in the RotoBaller OAD contest to get back into contention, but I wasn't able to find my way to him in the outright market at 14/1. I didn't think the price was egregiously off, but the six-point disparity that I projected equaled about two percent of win equity when you get this high up the board. Xander Schauffele did give us a run for our money before exploding on Sunday, but I'd say it was an overall solid week with some positives to take away across the board, including hitting another head-to-head premium play to go to 7-2-1 on the season. My free betting column, which includes first-round leader bets and some of the head-to-head wagers that just missed out on my Vegas Report, can be found here. And if you ever have any questions about a particular bet, player in the field or anything golf-related, be sure to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.

2020 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. Be sure also to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

Pebble Beach Golf Links

6,816 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Poa

After a week-long hiatus from having to deal with a split course event, the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am will put us right back into another rotational week of golf. Pebble Beach Golf Links, Spyglass Golf Course and Monterey Peninsula Country Club will be our host venues, and the cut will take place after all players have played each track once. The top-60 and ties will make it to Sunday, and the field will play Pebble Beach Golf Links for the final round.

Pebble Beach is the only course that will feature Shot Link data and Shot Tracker, and we won't have much of an idea of what is going on at the other two properties. This creates two huge negatives. For starters, we will only have information about what is happening for a third of the players each day. That in itself is terrible from a viewing perspective, but it also hurts us when it comes to breaking down the event properly. With half the rounds at Spyglass and Monterey, we won't have any strokes gained numbers for the week, and most importantly, we won't have any long-term data to incorporate into our research pre-tournament.

Last season, Pebble Beach Golf Links was getting prepared for the U.S. Open, which meant the fairways were more narrow than usual, not to mention that the rough was thicker than past seasons here. We should go back to a more conventional setup this season, and golfers that can gain strokes with their approach shots (especially from between 100-150 yards) will put themselves in a better position to score. It is worth noting that the greens are some of the smallest on tour, and players will also need to be able to save par around the putting surface if they want to find success.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

#1 - Kevin Na - 75/1

DraftKings Price: $7,700 / FanDuel: Price $9,500

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 5.1%

There are some weeks where you attack a card aggressively, and there are others where you either don't become invested or have very little exposure. Being able to show that discipline is a key step to growing your bankroll over time, and it is important not to force bets when the value isn't there.

I'm never going to post selections just for the sake of getting views. I bet everything I put into writing, and I realize exposure to these tournaments can add up quickly if you start too high up the board. For that reason, I much prefer taking a route of longshots for this event pre-Thursday and perhaps adding onto the card as the tournament progresses.

We have a weird dynamic that is taking place in the market this week. Dustin Johnson and Patrick Cantlay are soaking up nearly 20% of the win equity in my model, and we then have a handful of golfers that are coming in at around two to four percent each. The problem that this is presenting is that other than Cantlay, every player is yielding negative long-term value at their current price from the options 40/1 or below. When this happens, I typically will sit on the sidelines until Friday and let a tournament play out before becoming invested. I don't mind grabbing a few longshots that provide win equity at their price, but I'd rather look into players such as Branden Grace, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Paul Casey, Jason Day and Matt Kuchar once things are underway. That allows me not to inflate my exposure before the tournament and also leaves me an out if I decide I don't want to get invested if it looks as if Dustin Johnson might be an unstoppable train.

One player that is mathematically grading out profitably is Kevin Na. The American has admittingly struggled with injuries to start 2020, but two victories in the past nine months shouldn't be overlooked. Na is a superb golfer that is dangerous on or around the greens, and a venue such as Pebble Beach should highlight his strengths at a shorter tracker. There isn't a reason why Na should be higher priced than Adam Hadwin or Russell Knox, and I think we are being offered a 45/1 sort of golfer at 75/1.

#2 - Rafa Cabrera Bello - 50/1

DraftKings Price: $8,400 / FanDuel Price: $9,900

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 6.9%

Poor weekend rounds at Pebble Beach have hidden the fact of how good Rafa Cabrera Bello has been at the property. His 22nd place showing last season took a nosedive with a final round 74, and his 26th place result the year prior was halted by an even-par 72 on Sunday. If you change those performances to just being marginally below par, the Spaniard would have two top-10 finishes in back-to-back years, and the narrative would be different around him this week.

Cabrera Bello is a great par-four scorer that will give himself a plethora of birdie opportunities because of his pristine iron play, and even though he is still looking for his first victory in the states, the 45th-ranked player in the world is underpriced due to his lack of exposure on the PGA Tour. Pebble Beach is a venue that should highlight his links-style game, and the weather shouldn't be anything too out of the ordinary for him. At $8,400 on DraftKings, he makes for an excellent value play in all settings and can be easily paired with the likes of Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Patrick Cantlay or Paul Casey. I'd have priced him in the outright market at 40/1.

#3 - Harold Varner - 175/1 (Top-Five 28/1)

DraftKings Price: $7,000 / FanDuel Price: $8,500

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 4.3%

If you are looking for a great breakdown of what Harold Varner III did last weekend at the Waste Management Open, be sure to give Gianni Magliocco's article a read. As a quick synopsis, Varner parred his first 32 holes of the event to surpass KJ Choi's previous record of 27 but was unable to make the cut because of his lack of birdie upside.

In my opinion, Varner is an interesting golfer because he does a handful of things well. It isn't always possible to find players that are both long off the tee and solid with their short game, and that combination has consistently placed the American as one of the most steady players when it comes to bogey avoidance. There are some negatives that have held him back during his career, such as scoring, but HV3 has shown the ability to be explosive at times in his career.

Distance isn't a prerequisite at Pebble Beach, but I am curious to see how the 138th-ranked player will play in his first start at the property. Varner did not putt well last weekend, but Poa has historically been his better surface, not to mention that his three consecutive missed cuts have either come on the number or one stroke above that. Varner is playing better golf than the perception around him, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him unleash a hot round early in the event.

#4 -  Jason Dufner - 250/1 (Top-Five 35/1)

DraftKings Price: $6,800 / FanDuel Price: $8,000

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 3.3%

Similar to Harold Varner III, Jason Dufner hasn't been as bad as the current form might look. Eight missed cuts in 13 events isn't what you are hoping to see, but the American has barely missed the majority of the weekends by a shot or two over the last few months.

Dufner's biggest issue has been his lack of scoring chances, but I believe a lot of those woes can be chalked up to courses becoming a little too long for his game. When at his peak, Dufner was always a quality short iron player that could use his accuracy off the tee to find success, and much to the surprise of most, those numbers are still prevalent in his game.

Over his past 50 rounds compared to the field, the now 274th-ranked player in the world is ranked eighth in greens in regulation gained and is inside the top-30 when it comes to short iron proximity. I am willing to chalk up a lot of his misfortunes to difficulties at longer venues and will take a chance that he regains his ball-striking ability at a short track such as Pebble Beach.

#5 - Luke Donald - 300/1 (Top-Five 50/1)

DraftKings Price: $6,500 / FanDuel Price: $7,200

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 3.0%

This has been an abnormal card in general, and it will continue with a Luke Donald selection at 300/1. One of the most important things to think about when putting together outright bets is that we should have more volatility than a normal wager. We are certainly still looking for positive equity on all choices, but assuming we have that at our disposal, we are also attempting to find prospects that aren't so cut and dry in the market.

I think Donald is worth discussing for a few reasons. The most obvious would be because the Englishman is running out of exemptions he can use, and there is some pressure for him to start achieving robust results again on the PGA tour, but the thing that attracts me to him the most is his style of game and how it coincides with Pebble Beach. Donald is one of the best players around the green in the world, and the three short tracks this weekend in California should emphasize his wedge prowess, as well as his touch when missing the putting surface.

Donald has struggled to generate many strong showings as of late, but his share of 10th at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship in September does show that a more calculated test can still be in his wheelhouse.

Key Stats

• Strokes Gained Approach 22.5%
• Proximity From 100-150 Yards 17.5%
• GIR Percentage 17.5%
• Par-Four Average 15%
• Strokes Gained Around the Green 15.0%
• Par-Five Birdie or Better 12.5%

Head-to-Head Play of the Week

• Scott Stallings-110 over Patrick Rodgers -110
• Scott Stallings $7,600 price tag on DraftKings vs.Patrick Rodgers $7,400 price tag
• Scott Stallings 12.9 percent projected ownership vs. Patrick Rodgers 7.1 percent projected ownership

1.10 Units to Win 1.00 Units

The one thing I like about golf betting so much is that every person can handicap an event differently. Some bettors/DFS players might use a site that has statistical data already built into the software such as Fantasy National, and others might create their own models to find slight deviations in how they want to interpret the information. In my opinion, both have merit and importance, and I would recommend doing as much research as possible, but the amazing thing is that we all have the same numbers available that can be weighted however we want.

I mention this because I have seen Patrick Rodgers' name pop up over and over again throughout the industry as not only an outright wager to consider but also as a head-to-head selection to target. I can't say that I necessarily like him for either option, but this is a perfect example of why futures and matchup wagers don't coincide. To some extent, I understand the infatuation around Rodgers this weekend in the futures market. Four straight made cuts and two consecutive top-16 results is intriguing on the surface for a golfer that is priced at 100/1, but outright prices don't take into account volatility or consistency into the number.

In fairness, Rodgers has provided a hot run as of late, but let's not forget that the American missed nearly 45 percent of his cuts on tour from 2016 to 2019. That isn't a reason to solely discount his upside for Pebble Beach this weekend, but if you are interested in Rodgers, it is going to have to come because of his putting prowess, par-five scoring ability and recent form.  I can understand the intrigue those statistics might bring to some, but there are a plethora of negatives that make the 278th-ranked player in the world as a prime candidate to miss the cut.

When incorporating a 70 percent weight onto 2019 statistics and 30 percent calculation to this season, Rodgers comes up short across the board. He ranks outside the top-100 compared to the field in strokes gained approach, GIR percentage and proximity from 100-150 yards, and he also has struggled to produce on par-fours or create birdie looks on anything but par-five holes. A missed cut at Pebble Beach last season mixed with his eighth-place showing the year prior does show the volatility we were discussing, but I am more than content to take Scott Stallings' consistent and systematic approach that has produced three straight top-14 results here, as well as seven made cuts in his previous eight tournaments. To me, their win equities aren't drastically different from one another, but we enter a different stratosphere when we start talking about made cut percentage or average finish.

With the way I have structured my betting card for this event, please follow me on Twitter @teeoffsports for any plays I may add throughout the week. I usually don't like handicapping the proceedings in such a manner because not everyone bets once the tournament starts, but this is an event that I believe is best suited for most wagers to come in after round one. Good luck this week and feel free to contact me if you have a question about any particular player in the field!

2020 Head-to-Head Record (7-2-1)

+4.85 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

2020 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

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