PGA DFS The Seven Deadly Sins - The Masters

April 5, 2022

Spencer Aguiar digs into what it might take to win the Masters.

The history at Augusta tells more than just a story; it helps to figure out who might be able to grab the green jacket come Sunday.

There are a handful of qualities that I am using to eliminate golfers, so let's figure out who is standing at the end of this trial run.

I do want to note that this has successfully included the winner all three years that I have run this model. No promises that the trend continues, but let's give it our best shot.

The Seven Deadly Sins - Who Can Win At Augusta In 2022? 

1. Golfers Over 45 - Only Jack Nicklaus has ever won the Masters being older than 45 (46 years, two months, 23 days). That takes away the following players from this year's pool: Sandy Lyle, Vijay Singh, Larry Mize, Mike Weir, Jose Maria Olazabal, Padraig Harrington, Fred Couples, Bernhard Langer, Zach Johnson, Lee Westwood, Stewart Cink and Tiger Woods (Don't shoot the messenger!)

2. Players Who Won't Be Making At Least Their Third Appearance At Augusta - A first-timer hasn't won the event since Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979, and it typically takes a few showings to get accustomed to the undulation of the greens. That eliminates the following golfers: Austin Greaser, James Piot, Aaron Jarvis, Laird Shepherd, Stewart Hagestad, Min Woo Lee, Keita Nakajima, Harry Higgs, Takumi Kanaya, Garrick Higgo, Guido Migliozzi, Cameron Davis, Kyoung-Hoon Lee, Sepp Straka, Luke List, Erik Van Rooyen, Tom Hoge, Robert MacIntyre, Lucas Herbert, Cameron Young, Seamus Power, Harold Varner III, Talor Gooch, Sam Burns and Will Zalatoris. 

Those first two statistics have successfully eliminated 37 of our 90 participants. 

3. Golfer's Ranked Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field in Driving Distance - I don't believe distance is the only decider to find success at Augusta, but it does hurt someone's potential to find the winner's circle if he can't crack the top-50 names in a 90-person field: Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Patrick Reed, Kevin Na, Kevin Kisner, Brian Harman, Abraham Ancer, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Daniel Berger, Francesco Molinari, Russell Henley, Danny Willett, Billy Horschel, Mackenzie Hughes, Lucas Glover and Webb Simpson. 

There were some slight surprises in Daniel Berger and Patrick Reed - the latter of the two won this title in 2018. 

4. Golfer's Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field Around the Green - There are too many areas for players to find trouble, and it will show quickly if your short game falters: Hudson Swafford, Viktor Hovland, Cameron Champ, Jason Kokrak, Justin Rose, Adam Scott, Collin Morikawa, Bryson DeChambeau, Matthew Wolff, Dustin Johnson, Max Homa, Brooks Koepka, Corey Conners, Ryan Palmer, Sergio Garcia, Marc Leishman. 

Down goes a ton of Frazier's! Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Bryson DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland all are eliminated because of their short game.

5. Golfer's Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field in Three-Putt Percentage - Same theory as strokes gained around the green. Mistakes can add up quickly: Thomas Pieters, Charl Schwartzel, Bubba Watson, Paul Casey and Rory McIlroy. 

The wait for the elusive grand slam might have to wait for Rory McIlroy, who lands 54th in this field for three-putt avoidance. 

6. Player's Outside the Top-50 Compared to the Field In Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage - The easiest holes at the property will come at your four par-fives, and you can't afford to miss out on your scoring opportunities. That eliminates these three golfers: Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood and Louis Oosthuizen. 

All three barely missed the cut by just a few points. 

7. A Top-30 Result at the Venue during the Last Three Years - That isn't going to take out many players, but it is enough to eliminate Gary Woodland and Joaquin Niemann from the mix.

Who Is Left Standing?

We are down to just 12 golfers, and a few of the names were somewhat surprising. Please note that failure to make this list will not be a reason I exclude a golfer from my DFS pool, but I will try and stick to these names when selecting my handful of outrights.

Cameron Smith, Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, Jordan Spieth, Tyrrell Hatton, Si Woo Kim and Sungjae Im.

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

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