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Welcome back, golf fans! I wish we were welcoming back all spring sports, but I couldn't be more thrilled to get to write PGA articles again.
Using my DFS and betting research for both DraftKings and handicapping, I'll look into some of the Monkey Knife Fight prop bets for the Charles Schwab Challenge to see which posted numbers make sense to take a stand on. You can use this advice to place your own wagers on MKF. As always, send any questions, comments, or banter my way on Twitter. You can find me @BellRoto.
Let's get to some PGA Monkey Knife Fight prop bet picks for the Charles Schwab Challenge!
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Rapidfire Picks
Birdies or Better: Justin Thomas vs. Dustin Johnson (+0.5)
Granted, he's had almost a month to improve since we saw him last, and I don't know how much he actually practiced leading up to the event, but Dustin Johnson looked lost in the charity event he played in on May 17th. Meanwhile, Justin Thomas is arguably the best/most complete player in the world, and has always sported a better work ethic. Take into account easier Par 4s, which also favors JT, I like Thomas to crush this prop.
Birdies or Better: Rickie Fowler vs. Bryson DeChambeau (+0.5)
Rickie also played in the charity event with DJ on May 17th, and he looked much better, nearly carrying a brutal Matthew Wolff to a Skins victory. Even still, I trust the professor with three months of time off. I especially trust DeChambeau will come out of this break firing because his long-term plan to beef up and then adjust his swing was just starting to pay dividends.
It could certainly turn out that DeChambeau has tinkered too much during this break, but my money is on him coming out like a finely-tuned robot, allowing him to score with or better than Fowler.
More/Less Picks
Birdies or Better: Dustin Johnson LESS than 15.5
For all the reasons I mentioned above, I'm going to double-down on DJ still looking rusty coming out of the break. If he and Rory had lost the event, maybe I'd be a little more inclined to believe he went right back to grinding out his swing. This is more of a hunch than anything, but I think Johnson is the most likely of MKF's listed golfers to surprisingly miss the cut just above the number, making that 15.5 mark too high.
Birdies or Better: Jon Rahm MORE than 16.5
Jon Rahm has all of the skills to be the next best player on tour for a good stretch of time, and he's only 25. I think most of us thought he would have more wins by now after he burst on the scene in 2016, but scoring has certainly not been the issue.
While he'll be good for a handful of frustrating bogeys (or maybe even worse), we know Rahm will have a few stretches where he'll get RED HOT. He can bomb and gauge this course with his long drives, excellent irons, and great touch around greens. I'm confident Rahm makes the cut and cruises by this prop on his way to a top 5 finish.
Fantasy Points: Brooks Koepka MORE than 79.5
We've come to find out that it takes a special circumstance to get Brooks Koepka fired up and competitive for a tournament. And when that happens, look out!
I think this Charles Schwab Challenge strangely falls into that category, as he wasn't right to start 2020 due to a knee injury, and he's had so much time away from competitive golf. It would be a big middle finger to golf traditionalists everywhere for Koepka to come out, win this tournament, and then say he barely practiced during the break. He's shown that he is one of the best players in the world, and he can rack up birdies and eagles quickly when he wants to.
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