RADIO
We have two golfers leading the tournament that are $8,500 and $8,600 in price for R4 showdown, making them VERY easy to fit into lineups but at what ownership? (ps: Premium subscribers have access to that in the full version of my showdown model). Lucas Glover is reaping the rewards of his trip to Hogwart's as he is now riding that broomstick putter like Harry Potter, while Billy Horschel's blood sweat and literal tears seem to have paid off as his T13 last week was his first top-20 since in a stroke play event since the CJ Cup back in October.
Russell Henley sits a shot back of the two and will be looking to redeem those that had tickets on him here in 2021 when he blew his chances on the back 9 on Sunday. What makes tomorrow even more exciting, is the fact that only 1 of the top-10 golfers has averaged more than a stroke in R4, while only 3 have averaged half a stroke. A lot of ducks out of water at the top of the board.
You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the tournament's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
Finishing Position Points vs. Ownership
The general logic for showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. We will also be using my DFS Showdown Model which is available for premium members on the website and in our discord.
Round 4 showdown adds the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round. If somebody sitting outside the top 20 entering Round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top five, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?
Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top 10 entering Round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par? In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.
Bozo Brainwash Brigade
If I were to guess the most duplicated lineup tomorrow, this is most likely it. Folks, don't be like the 50+ people that play these 6 guys in the same lineup. How do you expect to profit when you enter a $5 entry to win $1,000 and split it with 50 people to win $20... IF you hit the nutz!? The Chances the leaderboard looks like this tomorrow morning is VERY unlikely! Don't be a part of the Bozo Brainwash Brigade, please.
Round 4 Strategy
Tomorrow presents an opportunity to sneak a few early birds into our lineups in hopes that they catch the worm before it gets blown away in the afternoon. If it doesn't get blown away, it may just get baked in the 90 degree North Carolina heat, which will firm up the course and gets the greens that have been diabolical in damp conditions, playing like they were set up by Bellatrix Lestrange (not good news for Glover and his broomstick).
With some scores of -8 making their way onto scorecards this week, chasing positional points is less important than a major where birdies are scarce and the fraction of total R4 points that are attributed to finishing position is bigger. There are some low owned birdie makers going off early tomorrow who we will be looking to target.
Round 4 Power Rankings
The Power Rankings for Round 4:
These are the golfers I will be looking to slot into my lineups for round 4. The ownership numbers are projected for R4 of $5 PGA SHOWDOWN SINGLE ENTRY which is important to note, as contest size and entry fee impacts the ownership numbers of different golfers across the contests. Click here for a full field power rankings that is part of the DFS Showdown Model on RotoBaller's website.
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$10,000+
Favorite play: Sungjae Im sits in T16 at -8 and really has no shot of winning this tournament. However, he has the second best birdie average on the slate and is one of the top spike putters too. His course history at this venue has been sensational and despite typically struggling to get out of neutral in R4, his position on the leaderboard should allow him to play freely on a course that has treated him well in the past. He is also going to be around 14% ownership, which is quite appealing for a man of his caliber.
Other considerations: Russell Henley, JT Poston. Henley has one of the better clutch factors on the slate, despite what we remember from him in the past. The model only applies this rating to golfers who have gained 9 total strokes so far, which are the top 5 golfers, with Stephan Jaeger in 5th at -13 on the brink of "being in contention" aka being clutch down the stretch on a Sunday.
$9,000+
Favorite play: Sam Burns has the highest spike putting score in the field and the second highest R4 scoring average. His ownership may see an uptick as a result of his 65 in R3, but it should not get much more than 20%, which is still fine considering he is in T21 and $9,500. If he can continue his stellar play from Saturday into Sunday, he could flirt with the top-10 if he has a scorching day on the greens.
Other considerations: Si Woo Kim, Adam Scott
$8,000+
Favorite play: Cameron Davis is the reason Sam Burns doesn't have the best R4 SG average, as the explosive Aussie is averaging +2.05 strokes gained in 2023 on a Sunday. He has been playing really inconsistently, but when he has made the weekend, he tends to continue playing well above the level needed to make the cut. He is in T16 and if history repeats itself, we are in store for some fireworks.
Other considerations: Byeong Hun An (not sure how many lineups I will have him in alongside Henley, as that would be roughly 80% in total projected ownership)
$7,000+
Favorite play: Brandon Wu will find himself in A LOT of my lineups despit only projecting at 2% ownership. $7,700 can buy you the 2nd-best projected points total in my model as he is just so solid across all 5 categories that generate that ranking (tournament ball striking, pre-event ranking, R4 scoring, birdie % and spike putting). I will be honest and say I was very surprised to see him grade out this well, but the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, and >clears throat< Wu are we to judge the model? >exit stage left to two dads clapping in the back row<
Other considerations: Andrew Putnam, Adam Schenk, Chez Reavie, Sam Ryder, Carson Young, Richy Werenkski (first time I have ever typed his name: early tee time + spike putting + BoB%).
$6,000+
Favorite play: Austin Smotherman if my memory serves me correctly, he had a birdie putt on 17 on Saturday morning of the 2022 Wyndham Championship that decided the fate of roughly 10 or so golfers making the cut had he made it and then parred the 18th hole. He missed it and then bogey the final hole to miss the cut by 1. He is in T26 and will be looking for a little bit of redemption around Sedgefield CC, potentially climbing close to a T10 if he gets hot enough. Smotherman has been a first round leader once or twice and has the ability to really go low when he is vibing. His $6,600 price tag brings with it a R4 scoring average of +0.47 and spiking putting of +1.07, which are delightful considering how cheap he is.
Other considerations: Greyson Sigg, C.T. Pan, Carl Yuan, Scott Piercy.
Good luck tomorrow, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!
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