PGA DFS Picks- Round 4 Showdown for 2023 American Express

January 21, 2023

Byron's top PGA DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings. The Round 4 showdown slate for the 2023 American Express.

Jon Rahm and Davis Thompson both lead the way at the top of the board, four shots clear of Christiaan Bezuidenhout and J.T. Poston in T3. Both Rahm and Thompson have spent the majority of the week at the top of the leaderboard, dominating par-5s across all three courses. A stadium course that can show some teeth to shots lacking full commitment will be the highway where 67 other PGA professionals will be chasing down the guys that stole far too many birdies through the first three days. It should be an exciting day of golf.

The general logic for showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. These players will be higher owned and chalkier than golfers in the same price range who had an off day, particularly with their irons. These are the golfers I gravitated towards, as they could very easily bounce the following day at half the ownership. Adding finishing positions to the equation makes it even more fun.

You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the tournament's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.

Finishing Position Points vs. Ownership

Round 4 showdown adds the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round. If somebody sitting outside the top 20 entering Round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top five, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?

Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top 10 entering Round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par? In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.

Round 3 Ownership Analysis

Round 3 DraftKings Points

Round 3 Highest Ownership

Round 4 Power Rankings

The Power Rankings for Round 4:

ps: Click here for a full field power rankings cheat sheet

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The Chalk Squad

These are dudes who will inherently receive the most ownership tomorrow, but if we look at a few guys with monster power ratings a little further down the board, they could win us a showdown slate tomorrow if things break right.

$10,000: Playing Jon Rahm in R4 of the TOC reaped the rewards of a Collin collapse. There is no doubt he will be 60%+ tomorrow. He has ended his three rounds with the third-most points twice and 17th-most today. His floor is incredible and his logical pivots (Scheffler and Cantlay) have been rather disappointing so far. These few sentences have taken forever to type as I finally think I convinced myself that we will play a mega chalk for Jon Rahm. I am sick of getting beaten by the guy who is the hottest golfer on the planet. We will find some contrarian plays in our other five spots.

$9,000: Tom Kim and Sam Burns would be the two plays we would roll out if we faded Rahm. Playing either of them as the next click after Rahm would be starting off with lineups very similar to the rest of the contestants on your slate. We are going to give them a skip as we are renting an ownership penthouse on Rahm Street in Chalk City. Our narrative is that Rahm runs away with this and the second wave of chasers outscore the majority of the guys starting inside the top 10.

$8,000: Nobody.

$7,000: Nobody.

$6,000: Nobody.

The Pivot People

Nobody is in the top eight. A slate breaker will hopefully be found in one of these names. Starting the round outside the top eight, these nimble non-contenders can still have the round of the day and sneak into the top three, which is how we take down a GPP. We are going to roll out most of these guys, particularly:

$10,000: Scottie Scheffler is going to be played alongside Jon Rahm as Rahm will take most of the ownership in the $10K range, and by adding Scottie to the mix, we can reduce our average ownership quite significantly and get our hands on someone who can have the round of the day and sneak into the top three. He is most likely T9 because of elite ball striking as we continue to anticipate the round where his putter spikes to the level we saw earlier in 2022.

$9,000: Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele and Sungjae Im are going to be fantastic pivots if we plan to fade Kim and Burns, who are cheaper priced and closer to the lead (the public loves finishing position points remember). If you scroll back to the power rankings, these guys are all very similarly ranked, so we will take a gamble on the trio that should be the lowest owned in the $9k range.

$8,000: Nobody.

$7,000: Chris Kirk and Patton Kizzire are going to still harbor some ownership as the second and third clicks in the $7K range that a Rahm + Kim/Burns lineup will leave salary for. With us going heavy on Rahm, we are going to leave these two alone and play Adam Hadwin and Sebastian Munoz, who will be our pivots off other pivot people.

$6,000: Nobody.

The Leverage Lads

It's our last chance for Tom Hoge and Co. to have that outlier round we have been chasing all week long. By default (score), these guys have landed up in the leverage lads section, but there are several $9K guys in this range who will be clicked on simply to avoid leaving salary on the table, as there are only three other $9K guys in the other sections of this article.

$10,000: Nobody.

$9,000: We have our core of $9K Pivot Pals that will be in most of our lineups with Rahm, but you don't need Cameron Young or Will Zalatoris in too many lineups to gain leverage on the field. Feel free to sprinkle them into a $9K slot if your lineup gets a little too chalky.

$8,000: Let's see you race up that leaderboard Tom Hoge. 

$7,000: Justin Rose, Thomas Detry, Stephen Jaeger, and Keith Mitchell.

$6,000: Justin Lower, Stewart Cink, Aaron Badley, and Austin Cook. 

Matchups (0-1, -1u) (Updated later tonight)

Good luck, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!

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