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Hello RotoBallers and thanks for joining me for the Sentry Tournament of Champions! In this article you will find my four favorite overall DraftKings DFS lineup plays for this week's PGA tournament.
The 'Core Four' will usually be spread across different DraftKings price points, but every week in PGA DFS is different and this article will reflect that by trying to give you an overall outlook of how the slate is shaping up.
Sentry Tournament of Champions Notes
This is an exclusive, winners-only event. There is no cut this week and with a very small field we can expect a lot of duplicate lineups in DFS tournaments. It's tempting to get "too cute" in these type of events in an attempt to differentiate yourself. While it is a good idea to be unique with some roster spots, you also don't want to stray too far away from the players you truly believe in. My Core Four this week tries to reflect that mindset. I know that I will be taking on some ownership with a couple of them, but I also have some players that I came to organically through my research process that should be a bit contrarian.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.
Justin Thomas - DraftKings: $11,200
I look for Justin Thomas to be extremely popular this week, but this is a situation where I'm willing to swallow the chalk and attempt to differentiate my lineups in other spots. To put it simply, JT has been in beast mode since fully recovering from a wrist injury that slowed him down last summer. Since August, Thomas has two wins and two top-fives in six PGA Tour starts.
When compared to the Sentry TOC field over the past 24 rounds, he ranks first in Strokes Gained: Total, T2G, Ball Striking, and Approach, as well as DK Points scored. In addition to the fire form, JT has played extremely well at Kapalua, picking up a win and a solo-third in four starts on the Plantation Course. I'm always reluctant when rostering the most popular player of the week, but there are just too many signs pointing to a strong outing from JT here.
Gary Woodland - DraftKings: $9,300
An in-form Gary Woodland is a scary Gary Woodland. After closing the 2019 season in a U.S. Open-victory induced hangover, Woody has come out firing this fall. Since knocking the rust off at the Safeway Open, he's went T3/5th/T7 in his subsequent starts and made the first President's Cup appearance of his career. He heads to Kapalua with some unfinished business after a runner-up finish in last year's Sentry TOC.
These limited-field events are always tricky from a roster construction standpoint - and we know how inconsistent Woody can be - but he just feels really underpriced when compared to his true tournament-winning upside, and his salary gives us lots of flexibility when building lineups.
Matthew Wolff - DraftKings: $7,900
I'm so excited about the future of this young trio that consists of Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, and Matthew Wolff. Hovland might have the better long-term prospects and you can make the argument that Morikawa is the best of the bunch right now, but Wolff - while carrying the most volatility - is perhaps the most explosive player in the group.
I was having a conversation with a good friend of mine about these young players and he had a great line when talking about Wolff that stuck with me, saying, "Wolff plays golf like he wants to murder every hole!" That mentality can work against Wolff on some of the layouts on the PGA Tour schedule, but it's exactly what we're looking for this week.
Adam Long - DraftKings: $6,900
I expect a lot of folks to turn to Sebastian Munoz down here, but my favorite salary saver of the week is actually Adam Long. It's easy to write long off as a "one-hit wonder" since he came out of absolute nowhere to win the Desert Classic in early 2019, and to be fair, he did struggle to find his footing on the PGA Tour for most of last year. But, Long has kinda been ballin' out during the Swing Season, with three top-25s and a runner-up finish in seven starts since September.
He has the ability to go low - he fired rounds of 62 and 63 among those previously mentioned Swing Season starts - and he grades out 11th in this field in Birdies or Better Gained over his last 24 rounds, in addition to ranking third in Eagles Gained over the same time frame. So, while Munoz is certainly a viable play, we can gain tons of leverage in GPPs with a pivot to Long at roughly half the ownership.
