Path to QB1: Jalen Hurts

August 29, 2021

Adam Koffler breaks down Jalen Hurts' fantasy football outlook with the Philadelphia Eagles heading into the 2021 season and how he could finish as QB1.

Jalen Hurts heads into training camp as the starting quarterback for the Philadelphia Eagles.

Unlike years past, there's no quarterback controversy in Philadelphia, giving Hurts an entire training camp and preseason to learn the offense and operate with the starters. With a new coaching regime in place, the repetitions can only help both Hurts and the entire offense heading into the regular season.

He only started four games last season as a rookie, playing the full four quarters in three of them. There are questions about his accuracy (52% completion), but is it too early to panic on the former second-round pick?

Hurts as a Rookie in 2020

First off, the Philadelphia Eagles were a mess last season. They finished 4-11-1 after a 9-7 season in 2019. What went wrong? Carson Wentz had his worst season as a professional quarterback. He completed just 57.4% of his passes and had a 1.07 TD:INT ratio. Compare that to 2019 when he completed 63.9% of his passes and sported a 3.86 TD:INT ratio. Why the drastic fall-off for Wentz? Not many will say it, but I'm here to tell you Wentz couldn't handle the pressure of the Eagles selecting Hurts in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft. He looked tentative, his decision-making was erratic, and he just wasn't the same quarterback we were accustomed to seeing. All of that culminated in head coach Doug Pederson benching Wentz in Week 13 against the Packers, and ultimately deciding to go with Hurts as the starter in Week 14 against the Saints.

In his first career NFL start, Hurts completed 17-of-30 passes for 167 yards and a touchdown, while also rushing 18 times for another 106 yards on the ground. He led the Eagles to their fourth win of the season over a very good Saints team. He went on to start the remaining three games of the regular season but was pulled late in Week 17 as the Eagles decided to roll with Nate Sudfeld in the fourth quarter. In Weeks 14 through 16, he averaged 282.3 passing yards, 1.7 passing touchdowns, 0.7 interceptions, 79.3 rushing yards, and 0.3 rushing touchdowns. That was good for 25.2 fantasy points per game. Only Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen averaged more fantasy points per game in 2020.

Dual-Threat Quarterbacks in Fantasy Football

Do we even care that Hurts completed just 52% of his passes in 2020? In most fantasy leagues, there's no penalty for incompletions, so the answer to that question could be as simple as that. When we talk about dual-threat quarterbacks in fantasy football, we're really talking about guys who have plays designed to get them out in space. Guys who average over five rush attempts per game and who are asked to use their legs in the red zone. Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, and Deshaun Watson all come to mind. Check out the table below that highlights the immense floor all these guys (including Hurts) have in fantasy football:

The takeaway from this table is that in 16 starts, Hurts could have had roughly 24 red zone carries, which could have led to roughly 12 rushing touchdowns. The point is that each of these guys has an insane floor along with a very high ceiling due to their abilities as a runner regardless of how they perform as a passer.

With the Ravens being a very good football team and playing with the lead much of the time, Jackson threw for just 183.8 yards and 1.7 touchdowns per game, but still managed to finish as a low-end QB1 because of the rushing numbers. With the Eagles projected to win just seven games in 2021, expect them to be in more negative game scripts than not, which should lead to garbage time passing stats for Hurts. But again, it's not the passing volume that's going to tip the scales here, it's the rushing ability that should have fantasy managers excited.

Including his two years at Alabama and one year at Oklahoma, Hurts has never rushed fewer than 11 times per game on average as a starter. He's also never rushed for fewer than 61.1 yards per game on average in his career, including three starts with the Eagles as a rookie. That level of production may seem unattainable over the course of an entire season, but let's take a look at a comparable quarterback.

Kyler Murray was the quarterback at Oklahoma in 2018, the year prior to Hurts taking over in 2019. Murray averaged 10 rush attempts and 71.5 rushing yards per game that season. In his second year in the NFL, he averaged 8.3 rush attempts for 51.2 rushing yards per game. A slight dropoff, which is to be expected given the nature of the professional game vs. collegiate game. Even as a rookie, Murray finished as the overall QB12 in terms of fantasy points per game despite averaging "only" 34 yards per game on the ground.

What to Expect from Hurts in 2021

The Eagles might not be very good in 2021, but that doesn't mean Jalen Hurts can't find success and produce admirably from a fantasy football perspective. In fact, his floor is likely a low-end QB1 due to the rushing upside. Let say Hurts averages a conservative 45 rushing yards per game, a number he is very likely to hit. That would give him 765 rushing yards over the course of a 17-game season. In terms of passing yards, he averaged 282.3 passing yards per game in three full games as the starter last season. While he may not hit that high of a mark, it isn't impossible given the likelihood Philadelphia trails in a number of games this season.

Look at his production in Weeks 15 and 16 with the Eagles playing from behind most of the game:

Even if we project a conservative 230 passing yards per game for Hurts in 2021, he should come close to being a 4,000-yard passer in a full 17-game season.

Add that all up, and here's a relatively "conservative" 17-game projection for Jalen Hurts in 2021:

• 3,910 passing yards
• 26 passing touchdowns
• 12 interceptions
• 765 rushing yards
• Nine rushing touchdowns
• 22.3 fantasy points per game

That would have been good for QB10 last season on a point-per-game basis. That's Hurts' floor in 2021. His ceiling is a top-five fantasy quarterback and he's currently ranked as QB10 per FantasyPros' Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). As you can see, he's currently being valued at his floor. Make sure you take advantage of this discount on draft day and reap the benefits of having one of the league's next best dual-threat quarterbacks on your roster.

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