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Oftentimes, the learning curve for quarterbacks entering the NFL is extremely high. A common trend among NFL coaches is to spend a high draft pick on quarterback talent and then let that quarterback sit and learn from a veteran stopgap signal-caller for a year or two until they are ready to play.
For fantasy football, an influx of new quarterbacks in recent years has brought an unprecedented amount of depth at the position, making the draft strategy of waiting on quarterback all the more viable. Additionally, with the selection of five quarterbacks in the first round in 2018, a new generation of young talent could potentially take the reigns for years to come at the position, both in real life and on the fantasy gridiron.
One quarterback who could break out in 2018 is Chiefs quarterback Pat Mahomes II. After sitting behind veteran Alex Smith for 2017, Mahomes now has the chance to take the reigns at the top of one of the NFL's best offenses in 2018. However, does his fantasy value warrant a selection ahead of this year's incoming group of quarterbacks?
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Patrick Mahomes II - Franchise QB?
After being taken 10th overall following a trade up by the Kansas City Chiefs, Mahomes was largely on the bench for the 2017 season, a year that saw the Chiefs reach the playoffs and display a hyper-efficient offense. In Week 17, with the playoffs secured, Mahomes was given a chance to play and demonstrated the potential for the Chiefs offense in 2018. It seems as if the Chiefs will be significantly more pass-heavy in 2018, especially given the defense's projected regression. This bodes will for a gunslinger like Mahomes, who will be passing the ball plenty as he tries to keep the Chiefs competitive in their games.
Let's talk about the supporting cast that Mahomes has to work with. Out of the backfield, Kareem Hunt established himself as a workhorse back with special talent both as a runner and a receiver. Returning veteran Spencer Ware also has some talent and has shown that he can be a good backup who has explosive playmaking ability of his own. In terms of receivers, Mahomes has two of the best downfield threats in the league with Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins. Watkins, additionally, projects as a solid possession receiver and redzone target; given the contract he was handed, the former Rams and Bills receiver should be a big part of the offense for the next few years. Additionally, let's not forget about all-Pro tight end Travis Kelce and complementary receivers Chris Conley and Demarcus Robinson. In summary, Mahomes has one of the best supporting casts in the NFL at his disposal and all indications point to an increase in pass attempts and field-stretching by the Chiefs, further inflating the value of their young quarterback.
Mahomes is currently a late round pick, which is fair considering his small sample size and inexperience at the NFL level. However, working with Andy Reid, Mahomes has all the upside in the world and could end the 2018 season as one of the league's highest-scoring fantasy quarterbacks. He is well worth a late round flier pick and could be a league winner if all goes well for the young quarterback.
2018 Rookie QB Class
The 2018 rookie quarterback class is filled with potential fantasy significance, both in the short and long term. First overall pick Baker Mayfield will likely challenge Tyrod Taylor for the starting quarterback job in Cleveland. With the talented supporting cast that he will inherit, Mayfield projects to be a solid fantasy addition if he earns the starting job, but it looks like Mahomes has more upside and trust from the coaching staff coming into 2018. Sam Darnold is battling veterans Teddy Bridgewater and Josh McCown for the Jets starting gig, yet if he earns the job he inherits an underrated offense but still a rebuilding team that does not carry a huge amount of fantasy potential. Nevertheless, Darnold is likely the most NFL-ready quarterback, so he should be a decent option if he does end up starting - but he's no Mahomes in terms of opportunity and upside coming from the team's offense.
Josh Allen looks to be a poor fantasy performer early in his career as he goes against former Bengals backup A.J. McCarron for the starting job. Additionally, Allen will be working with a depleted offensive line and poor supporting cast (outside of aging running back LeSean McCoy), so his fantasy upside is capped in the short-term due to his offense's lack of talent and his own shortcomings as an NFL-ready quarterback. Once again, it seems like a late round pick for Mahomes is better than a late round pick for a rookie quarterback.
An interesting rookie quarterback in an underrated situation is Cardinals quarterback Josh Rosen. Selected at the same slot as Mahomes (10th overall), Rosen could become the starter sooner rather than later as the current starting quarterback for the team is Sam Bradford. We all know that Bradford is quite injury-prone, and Rosen is a decent quarterback who will work with wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald and running back David Johnson. However, Mahomes has a better supporting cast and has had a year to develop, making him the favorite over Rosen in redraft formats.
Finally, at 32nd overall, the Ravens selected Lamar Jackson as a project quarterback behind incumbent starter Joe Flacco. It seems unlikely that Jackson could get playing time in 2018, but if Flacco continues to struggle the Ravens may have no choice. This is fantastic for Jackson's fantasy stock, as he is a dual-threat quarterback who could be the next coming of Michael Vick. His fantasy value has the potential to eclipse that of Mahomes due to his rushing ability; however, because Mahomes is the firm starter of the Chiefs and Jackson has to sit behind a quarterback on a contract guaranteed for several years, Mahomes is still a better fantasy play (for now).
Therefore, if you are choosing between Pat Mahomes II and a rookie quarterback in 2018 drafts, choose Mahomes - he is a much better bet to produce in fantasy football in 2018.
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