Parker Meadows: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

Is Parker Meadows a fantasy baseball sleeper, bust, or neither? Is he a flash in the pan or will he thrive? Rick Lucks' deep dive into Meadows' 2023 fantasy value.

September is approaching, so it's crunch time in fantasy baseball. Writing a column like this becomes challenging this time of year since your place in the standings page dictates who you should pick up and every manager has a different standings page. Do you need average? Power? Speed?

It's rare for a waiver wire option to be able to help with BA/OBP, HR, and SB, but Parker Meadows offers upside in all three categories. He's hitting .300/.440/.600 with a steal and a homer across his first six games. The 23-year-old is only rostered in four percent of Yahoo! leagues, giving him near-universal availability to pair with his upside. The downside is a scouting report that isn't glowing, but there are mitigating factors suggesting he's worth a dice roll.

Without further ado, let's take a closer look at what makes the younger brother of Austin Meadows an intriguing pickup.

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From Prospect to Afterthought: Parker Meadows

Meadows isn't on any top-100 prospect lists right now, ranking seventh in Detroit's system per FanGraphs and 10th per MLB Pipeline. However, he had considerable prospect buzz when he was taken with the first pick of the second round (44th overall) in the 2018 draft. The Tigers signed him above slot, meaning he received first-round money.

Typically, MLB Pipeline is the more optimistic of the two scouting reports used in this column, but FanGraphs is higher on Meadows. It isn't sold on his hit tool (30 now, 40 in the future), but 60 speed and 50/60 raw power still make for a dynamic prospect. The scouting report is even more encouraging, which notes that Meadows is "still growing into his frame" and "might yet add power in his mid-2os." It concludes by comparing him favorably to Bradley Zimmer thanks to a superior feel for hitting.

MLB Pipeline sees 45 hit, 50 power, and 60 speed, noting that Meadows has developed more power throughout the season. The scouting report also comments on his athleticism, arguing that he'll be a defensively-viable CF at the MLB level.

Sadly, Meadows got off to a slow start in the low minors and lost a year of development in 2020, while shiny new toys were drafted in every year since. Meadows fell off the radar, ultimately meeting with his high school coach to retool his swing before the 2022 campaign.

The Fantasy-Friendly Breakout of Parker Meadows

The modifications worked, and Meadows broke out in 2022. Spending most of the year playing for Double-A (Erie), he hit .275/.354/.466 with 16 HR and 17 SB in 489 PAs. The power-speed combo immediately commands fantasy attention, and both are backed by his peripherals. His 11% HR/FB wasn't sensational, but his 43.3 FB% was high enough to challenge 20 HR by volume alone. With two CS, Meadows was successful on 89% of his SB attempts.

Most toolsy players struggle with hit tool, plate discipline, or both, but Meadows was solid there as well. His .309 BABIP wasn't insane like many MiLB marks. His plate discipline was a strength with a 10.6 BB% and 18.4 K%. His 9.7 SwStr% was particularly impressive for a guy who was nearly two years younger than the average Double-A player. The only red flag was a 20.5 IFFB% (10.25% MLB equivalent).

It’s time for Parker Meadows to make his mark in the big leagues 🤩#RepDetroit pic.twitter.com/prN0s5tgyP

— Bally Sports Detroit (@BallySportsDET) August 21, 2023

Meadows didn't earn an in-season promotion to Triple-A (Toledo) but was allowed to begin his 2023 campaign there. He did more of the same, slashing .256/.337/.474 with 19 HR and 19 SB in 517 PAs. His HR/FB increased to 14.1% in the more hitter-friendly environment of Triple-A, but his 40.9 FB% was still high enough to compile homers at the MLB level. His LD% also spiked from 21.1 to 26.1, meaning Meadows was elevating more baseballs than in 2022. Likewise, he was caught stealing twice for an excellent success rate of 90%.

More advanced competition led to a few more strikeouts, but a 23.8 K% against an 11 BB% is hardly an issue for a 23-year-old at Triple-A. Meadows also posted a respectable 10.2 SwStr%, suggesting he wasn't overwhelmed at all. His .305 BABIP was likely sustainable too, though his 24.4 IFFB% was concerning. With two virtually identical MiLB campaigns, we know what Meadows can do on the field.

Projecting Parker Meadows

Projection systems hate Meadows this year, projecting about three homers and two steals over the rest of the season with an average ranging from .214 (THE BAT) to .228 (ZiPS). Every system also projects a sub-.300 OBP. The reason is his subpar numbers at lower levels before 2022, but this author believes that Meadows turned a corner with those documented swing changes.

If we look at his MiLB numbers, Meadows has a good eye at the plate and a strong feel for contact. He's a high-efficiency base thief and makes up for his lack of elite raw power by lifting enough fly balls to compile HR. The name Mike Cameron springs to mind, especially since Meadows is currently regarded as a plus defensively in center.

We need players who play in fantasy, and multiple sources have labeled Meadows a "platoon bat." However, Meadows has started in each of the first seven games since joining Detroit (including two vs. LHP), generally hitting sixth in the batting order. Until we see otherwise, it's safe to assume that the Tigers will give their young outfielder an extended opportunity.

The Verdict on Parker Meadows

There will always be risk in rostering an untested 23-year-old in fantasy, especially down the all-important stretch run. That said, Meadows may have the ability to help with batting average (or OBP), HR, and SB. That's a rare combination on waivers this late in the year. Batting toward the bottom of Detroit's order won't provide many opportunities for R+RBI, but Meadows is still a Champ for managers looking for a jolt.

PARKER MEADOWS FIRST CAREER HOMER IS A WALK OFF TANK pic.twitter.com/c46r95sAgF

— Baseball Quotes (@BaseballQuotes1) August 26, 2023

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