X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Overvalued Backup Running Backs

Antonio Losada looks at NFL backfields and highlights three popular backup running backs that are getting too expensive given their current ADP and potential return on investment.

Who doesn't love to draft a player late and see him blossom into a league winner? That can often be the case with running back handcuffs covering for starters that fall down to injury or enter the season holding out. Drafting a no. 2 running back late, or even getting him from waivers close to (or for) nothing can turn into a league-changing move.

I have already said it in the paragraph above: the key for those players to be truly valuable is getting them as late as possible for the cheapest of payments. The problem? Sometimes fantasy GMs put so much into those backups turning into league winners that their prices skyrocket and their values plummet given their all-or-nothing profiles.

With the season getting closer and the summer getting hotter, it is time to dish out some names worth avoiding in your drafts at the prices they're currently going for. Let's get to it!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers

If I'm honest, I could have picked any of Trey Sermon and Wayne Gallman for this blurb. In fact, I'm not too crazy saying that Raheem Mostert could have very well been included here as there is nothing telling what the hell will happen in San Fran's backfield come the 2021 season. Even Kyle Juszczyk and Jeff Wilson Jr. could eat from those three other running backs in which is closer to a Big Brother full set of characters than a football RB corps.

Judging by PFF projections and mid-July ADP values, Sermon projects to the second-most opportunities among 49ers rushers with 139 over 17 games. Mostert ranks first with only 30 more opportunities (169) while Gallman is third, already at a respectable 90 chances. That's a super-tightly distributed offense with no clear leader in it.

More concerning than anything, though, and something that showcases how close the top two rushers of this team are, is their ADP marks: Mostert has an ADP of RB30 (96th overall) and Sermon sits at RB31 (97.9th overall). Can't get closer, which means you're paying a top-dollar price for a question mark.

Obviously, if you draft the right player--which in this case means the one that stays healthy while the other goes down injured--then you'll have made a great decision. If you don't, I'm sorry, but you'll be throwing your league away. Too much risk involved in this play for me to consider going with it, folks.

More valuable RBs around his ADP: Leonard Fournette (100.6), Melvin Gordon (94.0), Mike Davis (78.4)

 

Ronald Jones II, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jones finds himself in a very similar situation to that of Sermon (read above) when it comes to ADP and projections compared to the (supposedly) RB1 of his team. PFF has Jones projecting to 186 opportunities in 17 games, only seven fewer than Leonard Fournette's 193-opportunity projection.

Again, the ADPs are just the same for this pair with a 100.6th overall for Fournette (RB32) and 100.8th for Jones (RB33). Who do you like the most? Let me answer that for you: you should like none!

Fournette is a little more valuable on PPR formats (projection of 153+ points compared to Jones' 131+) but things are even in Standard leagues. On top of that, consider that the Bucs still have Tom Brady manning the pocket, and also that they brought a nice RB3 in Giovani Bernard--a pass-catching back if anything.

Any of Jones and Fournette could beat their ADP and finish in the RB2 realm if all things go their way. I'd say Fournette is the better pick considering his higher pass-catching prowess and opportunities on that front, although the projections are so tight and close between these two that this looks like too much of a coin flip and a serious gamble to take with a pick inside the first eight/nine rounds of fantasy drafts.

More valuable RBs around his ADP: Michael Carter (109.0), David Johnson (114.9), Damien Harris (101.7), Chase Edmonds (78.8)

 

Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers

I was having an internal debate about who to write about for the third blurb. I was considering Hubbard and Houston Texans RB Phillip Lindsay for it. I ultimately settled for Hubbard, but I'm going to tackle this as a head-to-head thing so I get to talk about both player cases, as they have very close ADPs at the time of this writing, while in different situations.

Hubbard, as you know, is the new Carolina Panthers backup-RB after last-season phenom Mike Davis moved to the Falcons to take on RB1 duties. If there is a one-man backfield in the NFL, that's Carolina's with Christian McCaffrey at the helm. CMC projects to get 369 (!) opportunities while no other of the three RBs included in PFF projections break the 42-opportunity mark. That's bonkers.

Lindsay, on the other hand, was brought to Houston to (at least we expect) back veteran David Johnson up for the Texans while sharing those second/third-back roles with another free agent signee in Mark Ingram II. Johnson projects 208 opportunities compared to Lindsay's 124 and Ingram's 67.

Hubbard (185.7) and Lindsay (189.2) currently have ADPs virtually on top of each other. They are not expensive players (drafted in the 14th round or later), but you could be waisting a draft pick if you go in either of those two's direction.

While Hubbard benefits from a clear RB2 role if CMC goes down injured, that's the only thing that could save him. Lindsay has more competition (Ingram), so even in the case of Johnson getting injured, he would still have to deal with Ingram in the backfield. In any case, we should assume that 1) CMC won't be off the field as much as he was last season, which seemed like an outlier, and 2) that any of Johnson/Lindsay/Ingram can produce and there is a huge chance they see super balanced work in 2021, rendering all of them non-viable fantasy players other than in spot starts and added through the WW. Fade Chubbard and fade Lindsay/Ingram but keep an eye on those waivers and injury reports just in case.

More valuable RBs around his ADP: Tevin Coleman (204.2), James White (198.2), Rashaad Penny (196.5), Darrel Williams (226), Latavius Murray (164.7)



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Dylan Cease5 mins ago

Keeps Padres Rolling
Marcelo Mayer6 mins ago

Goes Deep In Second-Straight Game
Harrison Bader12 mins ago

Homers To Secure Twins Win
Dom Hamel24 mins ago

Tosses Five Shutout Frames In Season Debut
Michael Helman30 mins ago

Busy In Wednesday's Victory
Matt Shaw41 mins ago

Stays Hot At The Plate
Sean Burke49 mins ago

Stumbles In Second Start
Jacob Wilson57 mins ago

Extends Hitting Streak To Seven Games
Jared McCann1 hour ago

Tallies Three Helpers On Wednesday
Jackson Blake1 hour ago

Scores Twice In Victory
Artemi Panarin1 hour ago

Tallies Three Points In Overtime Victory
Andrei Svechnikov2 hours ago

Exits Early On Wednesday
Jake McCabe2 hours ago

Suffers Injury On Wednesday
Jonathan Drouin2 hours ago

Exits Wednesday's Contest
Trevor Story2 hours ago

Homers In Wednesday Win
Hunter Goodman2 hours ago

Homers In Loss To Phillies
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.2 hours ago

Hits Two-Run HR Wednesday
Anthony Volpe2 hours ago

Hits Three-Run Homer Wednesday
Tommy Edman2 hours ago

Hits Two-Run Homer Wednesday
Logan O'Hoppe2 hours ago

Hits Grand Slam On Wednesday
Byron Buxton3 hours ago

Doubles, Homers, Drives In Two On Wednesday
Nico Hoerner3 hours ago

Swipes Two Bags On Wednesday
Oneil Cruz3 hours ago

Homers In Win Over Rays
Dylan Moore3 hours ago

Homers In Win Wednesday
Luis Arraez3 hours ago

Homers, Steals A Base In Win On Wednesday
Michael Conforto7 hours ago

Homers, Scores Three Runs
Jace Jung8 hours ago

Hits Home Run No. 2 At Triple-A
Los Angeles Chargers10 hours ago

Chargers Sign Tight End Jordan Petaia
10 hours ago

Matthew Golden Making Pre-Draft Visit To Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals11 hours ago

Trey Hendrickson Not Looking For Short-Term Deal
Tutu Atwell11 hours ago

Rams Plan To Give Tutu Atwell A Bigger Role In 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers11 hours ago

Bucs Restructure Antoine Winfield's Deal To Free Up Cap Space
Jrue Holiday13 hours ago

Won't Play Against Miami
New York Jets13 hours ago

Xavier Newman-Johnson Re-Signs With New York
Al Horford13 hours ago

Sidelined Versus Heat
Kristaps Porzingis13 hours ago

Ruled Out On Wednesday
Fred VanVleet13 hours ago

Out Versus Utah
Dean Wade14 hours ago

Sidelined On Wednesday
Trae Young14 hours ago

Expected To Suit Up On Wednesday
Joel Embiid14 hours ago

Will Undergo Arthroscopic Surgery On His Left Knee
Evgeni Malkin14 hours ago

Joins Penguins For Road Trip
Filip Chytil15 hours ago

Could Miss Rest Of Season
Declan Chisholm15 hours ago

Back In Action Against Rangers
Keaton Wallace15 hours ago

Sidelined Again On Wednesday
Samuel Girard15 hours ago

Exits Avalanche Lineup Wednesday
Joel Kiviranta15 hours ago

Returning Against Blackhawks
Eeli Tolvanen15 hours ago

Misses First Game Of The Season
Jaden Schwartz15 hours ago

Unavailable Against Canucks
17 hours ago

Kyle McCord Rising Up Draft Boards?
17 hours ago

Ashton Jeanty To Raiders Continues To Gain Steam
17 hours ago

Emeka Egbuka To Fall To Round 2?
Los Angeles Rams17 hours ago

Rob Havenstein Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Cleveland Browns19 hours ago

Mike Hall Likely To Miss Offseason Program After Having Knee Surgery
New England Patriots19 hours ago

Christian Barmore Expected To Be Ready For Offseason Workouts
19 hours ago

Saints Expected To Visit With Quinn Ewers
Jake Moody19 hours ago

49ers To Bring In Competition For Jake Moody
Pittsburgh Steelers19 hours ago

Steelers In Play To Draft A Running Back
Green Bay Packers21 hours ago

Packers Not Ruling Out Jaire Alexander Returning
Tennessee Titans21 hours ago

No. 1 Overall Pick Might Not Be For Sale
Kenny Pickett22 hours ago

Browns Feel Good About QB Situation, Kenny Pickett
Cleveland Browns22 hours ago

Browns Unlikely To Trade Up To No. 1 Overall For Cam Ward
Cincinnati Bengals22 hours ago

Bengals Still Working On Contract Extension With Trey Hendrickson
Dyami Brown22 hours ago

Jaguars Intrigued By Dyami Brown's Potential
Bennedict Mathurin23 hours ago

Iffy For Wednesday
Myles Turner23 hours ago

May Miss Another Game Wednesday
Al Horford23 hours ago

Considered Doubtful Wednesday
Jrue Holiday23 hours ago

Questionable For Wednesday's Game
Kristaps Porzingis23 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Wednesday
Jaylen Brown24 hours ago

Could Remain On The Shelf Wednesday
Cade Cunningham24 hours ago

Likely Out For Fifth Straight Game
Anthony Davis24 hours ago

Probable Wednesday
Evan Bouchard1 day ago

Tallies Two Assists In Victory
Jake Guentzel1 day ago

Tallies Goal, Assist In Victory
Kirill Marchenko1 day ago

Scores Hat Trick On Tuesday
Tage Thompson1 day ago

Stays Hot On The Scoresheet
Lane Hutson1 day ago

Dishes Out Three Helpers In Overtime Victory
Alex Ovechkin1 day ago

Tallies Two Points In Victory
Cameron Young1 day ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama1 day ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim1 day ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Tom Hoge1 day ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick1 day ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners1 day ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay1 day ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland1 day ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia2 days ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti2 days ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Guerschon Yabusele2 days ago

Out Against Knicks
Karl-Anthony Towns2 days ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Jevon Carter2 days ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry2 days ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Julian Phillips2 days ago

Out On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud2 days ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Jacob Trouba2 days ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Jordan Spieth2 days ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp2 days ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim2 days ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood2 days ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau2 days ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole2 days ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens2 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA2 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy3 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman3 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland3 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno3 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg3 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober3 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall3 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara3 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez3 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales3 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.3 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira3 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez3 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas3 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez3 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron3 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe3 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones3 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry4 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano4 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece4 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg6 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno6 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres6 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober6 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer6 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum6 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales6 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.6 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira6 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Russell Wilson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Fantasy Football Outlooks For QBs On New Teams: Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, more

The NFL quarterback carousel gets to spin every offseason, and plenty of QBs have already found new homes ahead of the 2025 NFL season. For fantasy football, a player's surrounding team is extremely important, so it's worth looking into each of their outlooks with their new squads. There are still a few unsigned QBs, but […]


Shedeur Sanders - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks

2025 Dynasty Fantasy Football Rookie Mock Draft: 12-Team, Superflex/Two-QB

The 2025 NFL Draft is still less than 30 days away. Therefore, dynasty fantasy rookie mock drafts are nearly here. Much will change between now and the NFL Draft. However, it’s time for another dynasty rookie mock draft. This rookie mock draft is a two-round, 12-team, and two-quarterbacks.Be sure to check all of our fantasy […]


Deshaun Watson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Offseason Team Needs: Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Steelers

The AFC North, comprised of the Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers, sent two teams to the playoffs in 2024 and had one on the cusp of a playoff berth. The Ravens have the best roster of the four teams by a long shot. The Steelers have a solid defensive group, and […]


UFL RANKINGS, FANTASY FOOTBALL,

UFL Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 2: QB, RB, WR, TE Rankings and Analysis (2025)

Week 2 of the UFL season is just around the corner. This week will feature one game on Friday, one game on Saturday, and two on Sunday. Birmingham and Michigan will play at 8:00 p.m. EDT on Friday, followed by Memphis-D.C. on Saturday at 8:00 p.m. EDT. Sunday's game pits the 1-0 Renegades against the […]


Calvin Ridley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Picks, Draft Sleepers

Dynasty Fantasy Football Rankings: Overvalued, Undervalued Players (2025)

Dynasty fantasy football rankings constantly shift, especially as we inch closer to the new season and fantasy drafts. Dynasty managers know the importance of finding those underrated players who could be steals in drafts or trades. They also know some players are overhyped due to unsustainable trends or past production. I'll break down two overvalued […]


Justin Fields - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Best Fantasy Football Moves During 2025 NFL Free Agency

It has been a wild offseason so far in the NFL. Plenty of players have switched teams in free agency, and some stars were even traded. Deebo Samuel Sr. was dealt to the Washington Commanders, Geno Smith was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders, and DK Metcalf has a new home with the Pittsburgh Steelers. These […]


Tyreek Hill - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Three Aging Fantasy Football Players To Sell In Dynasty Leagues

It's hard to always know when to sell off your aging fantasy football players. Often, it's also difficult to accept that it's better to move on from a player when he's coming off a productive season and still has a lot left in the tank. But I believe it's better to be a year early […]


J.J. McCarthy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Draft Sleepers

Five Fantasy Football Superflex Quarterback Breakouts, Draft Targets (2025)

If you’ve ever played in a Superflex fantasy football league, then you know how important quarterbacks are in this format. The ability to start multiple stud quarterbacks can carry you to a Superflex title. Unfortunately, finding two such players isn’t so easy. All the top signal-callers come off draft boards first, and that makes it […]


Omarion Hampton - College Football Rankings, NCAA CFB DFS Lineup Picks - NFL Draft

Ideal Landing Spots For The Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies - 2025 NFL Draft

Then, the NFL Draft continues to inch closer and closer. This is a very interesting class, with a handful of players who could be stars in the NFL and reshape fantasy football leagues going forward. Here are the ideal landing spots for the top 12 fantasy football rookies. These picks exist in conversation with each […]


Jalen Coker - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Eight Best Ball Late Round Value Fantasy Football Players To Target For 2025

Fantasy football is the most popular game in all of sports. It has gone from a paper-and-pen game to a multi-million dollar-a-year one. While redraft leagues are the most popular form of fantasy football, best ball leagues are quickly gaining steam. The best part of best ball leagues is the ability to draft thousands of […]


Abdul Carter - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

2025 NFL Draft Rankings: Top 10 Fantasy Football Edge Rusher Prospects

Edge rusher is the most important, most coveted, and most highly-paid position on defense in the NFL. It stands to reason that the most important position in the entire game being quarterback, and by a wide margin, means the most important position on defense are the players that are tasked with disrupting opposing QBs as […]


Brock Purdy - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Picks

Brock Purdy Dynasty Fantasy Football Outlook and Trade Value

Despite becoming the all-time leading passer for the Iowa State Cyclones, Brock Purdy wasn't a highly touted prospect due to his perceived lack of athleticism. The 49ers picked him with the final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, but Mr. Irrelevant quickly proved everyone wrong. In his first two years, he started in back-to-back NFC […]


Michael Florio's Football Show - Podcast RotoBaller Network

Florio's Football Show: Scouting NFL Draft Prospects!

Michael F Florio goes over some of the top prospects from this years NFL Draft. Florio talks about what he looks for when watching prospect tape and explains what traits translate best to the NFL level. Be sure to also tune into RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (SiriusXM channel 87) on Sundays from 6-7 am. You can […]