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Ryan's list of overrated and underrated CBB power rankings from AP for 2024 NCAA college basketball teams for Week 17. Who are the most overvalued and undervalued college basketball teams after Week 16?
In case you were wondering...it's still not March... not yet. However, we are less than two weeks away from conference tournaments kicking off and only three Sundays away from a brand new crisp bracket in the palm of our hands.
Before we get to that point though, there are still a few regular-season games that will determine the postseason fate of many. There are effectively 30-35 teams fighting for 19 open spots in the NCAA tournament. Some of those teams find themselves straddling that top-25 line, while others are fighting for mediocrity in the 'Others Receiving Votes' group.
It's time for the next article of a year-long series: Overrated and Underrated College Basketball Teams after the release of the weekly Associated Press Poll. All rankings listed are based on the Week 17 AP Poll.
Overrated College Basketball Teams For Week 17
South Florida Bulls: Unranked to #25
This team wasn't on the bubble for 17 weeks - and they still may not be - but 13 straight wins and a spot in the top-25 is quite the noisemaker. The Bulls are led by former Kennesaw State head coach Amir Abdur-Rahim, who is only in his first season and boasts a ridiculous 14-1 conference record (AAC). All after taking a 1-28 Kennesaw State team to an NCAA tournament four years later. There's no denying that he's one of the rising stars in the basketball coaching profession.
While it's tough to keep a team out that has an NCAA-leading win streak in a top-10 conference (#9 according to EvanMiya), there is a bit of fraudulent activity spotted on the part of the Bulls. Eight of these wins are by five points or less, and seven of them have come against teams outside the top 170 in KenPom. The Bulls themselves are #93, with a top-25 "Luck" metric given by KenPom, which is the "deviation in win percentage between a team's actual record and their expected record." You can't fault them for winning games, but the competition level has been poor for the most part without a strong non-con.
Memphis and FAU - by far the best teams in the conference - also only popped up on their schedule once a piece. Can they be the AAC darling of the tournament like FAU was last season and stun the nation? Of course. In the past five years alone UCLA went from the first four to the final four and #15 seed St. Peter's went to an Elite Eight. March is absolute madness and that's why we love it. However, I am going to go out on a limb and say that this team is put back in their place by either of those aforementioned AAC powers in the conference tournament. Although, I don't necessarily want that to happen because give me some Chris Youngblood in the NCAA tournament. It would be awesome for the sport of college basketball.
Washington State Cougars: #21 to #19
Another team that has slowly crept up onto the radar of the college basketball national media, Wazzu is ranked for the first time since 2008 when Virginia head coach Tony Bennett was leading the program. This team is fighting for their first conference regular season title since 1941! Yes, you read that right. While Arizona (12-4 PAC 12) still has a slight edge, the Cougars (12-5 PAC 12) are still +175 to win the conference and close out the season with three home games (USC, UCLA, and Washington), unlike the Wildcats who still have to travel to two of those three teams (vs. Oregon, @ UCLA and USC).
It's been a phenomenal season for head coach Kyle Smith who has broken through in his fifth season at the helm, but I am still not a believer in this team being a legit tournament threat or even top-25 level good. The resume includes some head-scratching losses - an 8-point loss to Santa Clara at home, along with a 22-point defeat at Utah. You can't ignore their victory over the aforementioned Wildcats on the road, which is one of the most impressive victories by any team this year, but this team struggles on offense too often to have a lot of confidence in them. Isaac Jones, Myles Rice, and Jaylen Wells are an awesome trio that you can build a program around, but I'm not sure they have the juice that some of these other top-25 teams have. At least not this year.
Underrated College Basketball Teams For Week 17
Wake Forest Demon Deacons: Unranked (5th in 'Others Receiving Votes')
This could legitimately be the best team Wake Forest has fielded since the Chris Paul era, and that's not a joke. While that may seem like more of a testament to how lost the program has been, Steve Forbes has the Deacs in a great spot to make their first tournament since 2017, and they are more than good enough to create major havoc in March.
The team is led by Gonzaga transfer and former five-star Hunter Sallis, who just may pull off a backdoor ACC Player of the Year maneuver after dropping 29 points in a statement win against #8 Duke. If you were away from the sport this weekend, there was a vintage court-storming in Winston Salem as the students poured onto the hardwood right before time expired, causing a collision with star center Kyle Filipowski. It looks like "Flip" avoided an injury for the time being, but this incident caused everyone and their mother to speak their mind on the topic of court-storming, including of course Jay Bilas (a former Dukie himself) spouting some pretty absurd remarks about how students should just be detained if they chose to do so.
If you want more on that matter you can take to other parts of the internet, but this is about the Demon Deacons and their explosive team. This team is eighth in the ACC in three-point attempts, but fourth in makes and second in percentage. Add in the fact that they are second nationally in free throw percentage with a top-35 defense, and what you have is an extremely efficient shooting team that also makes for a perfect bracket-buster. This offense is a well-oiled machine that will do damage if given the opportunity. The Demon Deacons still need a good showing in the ACC tournament to solidify their position in the Big Dance but don't be surprised if they leave nothing to chance and go win the whole thing.
Mississippi State Bulldogs: Unranked (14th in 'Others Receiving Votes')
The Bulldogs were one of my favorite teams coming into the year, and while they haven't necessarily surpassed expectations by any means, they should feel good about their tournament hopes. This is a hard-nosed basketball team that has a legit star in forward Tolu Smith, and a budding one in freshman point guard Josh Hubbard. The latter just dropped a career-high 32 points, including six threes in a 20-point victory at LSU, his fifth game with at least five made from distance. The problem with this team last season was that long-range accuracy (dead last across all division one in three-point percentage), and while they still aren't efficient in this area, they've at least improved more than 100 spots. Their #11th national ranking in adjusted defensive efficiency is what keeps the Bulldogs afloat. Think of them as a Houston-lite.
After getting blown out by Alabama on the road, this team has also won five straight and sits at seventh in an extremely tough SEC. A massive test at home against a hot Kentucky team looms, and if they can win that, State is a virtual lock for the tournament. If I were a one or two seed, I would want absolutely no part of Wake or Mississippi State.
