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Chicago Bears tight end Trey Burton is an overhyped sleeper for 2018 fantasy football drafts. Dom Petrillo outlines the reasons why Burton will be overdrafted and may be an ADP bust.
Is Trey Burton going to be the top tight end option on the Chicago Bears in 2018? Yes. Is he the best TE on the roster? Maybe.
These are not high thresholds to leap over at this point in time, however. Mitchell Trubisky may have a breakout season like Jared Goff last season, which would mean good things for Burton. But he may not either.
The truth is that fantasy owners drafting Burton as a low-end TE1 in some leagues are betting on a lot of maybes to come true. While he makes a decent flier, his ADP is far too high given his lack of resume and all the variables that need to break right for him to pay off as a starting tight end. Let me explain...
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
In Burton We Trust?
In 12 games played in 2017, Mitchell Trubisky finished with 2,194 passing yards for seven touchdowns and seven interceptions. This does not bode well for the pass catchers on the roster including Trey Burton who has never been a starter in the league. In 61 career games, Burton has 63 total receptions for 629 yards. Including the five touchdowns from last season, he has a total of six in his career. While 2017 was a breakthrough year for Burton with 23 receptions for 247 yards and those five touchdowns, do we really want to trust our entire tight end position to someone who has never been a starter?
There are other options who we have seen more from who are even better values late in drafts. These include George Kittle, Austin Seferian-Jenkins or even a player like Eric Ebron, who while disappointing in some respects, is going to a quarterback in Andrew Luck who once made a fantasy-viable tight end out of Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen.
The Bears have opened up their wallets and spent money this offseason including acquiring Allen Robinson (Jacksonville) and Taylor Gabriel (Atlanta) in hopes of improving the passing game. With Tarik Cohen also a receiving threat out of the backfield to go along with the rushing ability of Jordan Howard, there are many more options than in recent history. Along with the improvements on offense, the Bears bring in a new coach this season in Matt Nagy who is a far cry from the archaic John Fox era which was just lifted from the Windy City. Coming from an offense which was run by Andy Reid and used the tight end proficiently in Kansas City, this could mean an uptick in production for Burton. Travis Kelce he is not, however. He is not the same talent level as Kelce is and he is not near the downfield threat he is either, meaning he will have to be figured into the offense in much different ways to succeed.
The Bears had the 32nd-ranked passing offense in 2017 and with the arrival of new head coach Matt Nagy, this figures to go up significantly. With this comes the feeling Burton will step into a major role in the offense and immediately be a top-10 tight end. This is probably true as the tight end position has been a dumpster fire as of late. Although this is the prevailing feeling, it is by no means a certainty as nothing is in the NFL these days.
Taking Burton in the ninth round instead of taking Rob Gronkowski, Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz in the top four rounds is a great value, but is the value worth the risk of missing out on one of the sure-fire stars at the position or going with a more established player like the aforementioned Ebron? Maybe, maybe not. Either way, the Hype train needs to slow down and pull in to the station until it is proven one way or the other. Burton could very well have the breakout season in 2018 we are expecting, but at his current ADP he is still worth passing over for a less risky play even later in drafts, allowing you to load up on other positions which have more than one player starting each week.
