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With the ease at which information is transmitted in this modern day and age, players that otherwise would have had a low ADP and tantalizing upside are being forced up draft boards by consensus within the community that they are undervalued. However, if the masses recognize that some players are at an ADP that is below their projected value, oftentimes an overcorrection will ensue on draft boards, skyrocketing the draft day cost of the aforementioned player and making them no longer worth the selection.
Ex-Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Albert Wilson has been a popular sleeper candidate this season due to his new move to the Miami Dolphins. However, his current ADP is too high considering the level that he has performed at in recent seasons.
Below are some reasons why Albert Wilson's sleeper status is becoming a little too much in 2018.
Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.
Pros for Albert Wilson
Albert Wilson, like most other Chiefs skill position players, was used as a gadget option by head coach Andy Reid throughout his four seasons with the Chiefs. Although he was primarily a slot receiver, Wilson also lined up at running back for a few snaps during his stay with the Chiefs. As a rookie, Wilson was only able to muster 16 receptions for 260 yards. However, in 2015, the speedy wideout almost doubled his reception and yards totals and recorded 35 receptions for 451 yards (two touchdowns) as well as five rushes for 26 yards. Unfortunately for Wilson, Tyreek Hill's emergence in 2016 limited the role that he had in the offense and he experienced a down year, with 31 receptions for 279 yards (two touchdowns) as well as two rushes for 50 yards and another rushing touchdown. Despite this downward swing in performance, Wilson was able to put together a solid 2017 season and earn himself a new contract in free agency. With 42 receptions for 554 yards and three touchdowns across 13 games, Wilson looked like a solid speed threat in an offense that was one of the best in the league.
With a good season under his belt, Wilson was able to earn himself a new three-year contract with the Miami Dolphins, earning $8 million a year. This puts him as the joint-highest paid receiver on the team with deep threat Kenny Stills. Throughout the preseason, Wilson has been used both in and out of the slot and has taken several snaps at running back during practice. Clearly, the Dolphins view their new player as a versatile weapon who can contribute in all facets of the game. The question is, will he be able to continue off of his 2017 form and become one of the team's top receivers in 2018?
Why Drafting Him Is Not Smart
Although Albert Wilson has demonstrated his competence at playing in the NFL, he should not be considered even as a late round lottery pick. First, let's discuss the competition that Wilson will have for targets in the Dolphins offense. Playing in front of veteran quarterback Ryan Tannehill, Wilson will share receiving duties with players such as Kenny Stills, Devante Parker, Jakeem Grant, and Danny Amendola.
With Jarvis Landry departing the Dolphins, almost 200 targets were left up for grabs. The majority of these are expected to be split between Wilson and Danny Amendola, who has shown that he is a very solid slot receiver and will steal a significant chunk of Wilson's targets in 2018. Furthermore, Stills and Parker both should receive around 120 targets on the year as the team's leading receivers if they are able to stay healthy. That leaves Wilson with most likely less than 90 targets on the season. Even if he has a career year in receptions, Wilson will have to maximize his yardage totals in order to become fantasy relevant and, even then, faces a difficult path to reliable weekly contributions due to the sheer amount of competition that he is expected to face during the season.
Additionally, the state of the Dolphins as a team leaves much to be desired. The team is expected to struggle this season - although they have some pieces in place, there is much more that needs to be done to make the Dolphins a high-level contender in the NFL and that simply won't happen between now and the start of the season. Although some may argue that negative game scripts favor receivers, the fact is that good teams tend to produce better fantasy options and the Dolphins are not expected to be one of the good teams in the NFL this season.
When all is said and done, Albert Wilson is a good football player. However, the fact that he may end up being the fourth receiver on the depth chart of a struggling NFL team is more than enough to stay away from him, even in the later rounds of drafts. Unless you believe in Wilson enough to spend a draft pick on him, stay away from the speedy wide receiver but keep him on your watchlist in case he comes out of nowhere to dominate the league in 2018.
